Our Best Bets went 3-1 yesterday. And sit at 3-2 for the week. Tonight, we have the Dolphins and the Steelers playing on Monday Night Football. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

De’Von Achane Rush Yards over 79.5

Dolphins @ Steelers

The 6-7 Dolphins are traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the 7-6 Steelers. It is going to be a freezing cold night with temperatures projected to be in the teens at kickoff. These teams have faced each other 29 times with the Steelers holding a 15-14 edge in the all-time series. The most recent game was a 16-10 Miami win on October 23, 2022.

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite, and the points total is set at 42.5. The public seems to be leaning towards a Steeler victory with 81% of the public bets and 58% of the money being placed on the Pittsburgh to win. It is a slightly different story in terms of how the public are betting with the points. 54% of the money and 52% of the bets are being placed on Miami +3. As it usually does, the public are expecting this game to be an over game. 67% of the bets and 66% of the money is being placed on over 42.5 points.

Game Odds

Dolphins Offense

Miami’s offense is scoring 21.6 points per game, which is ranked 22nd in the league. They have had their fair share of challenges early in the season but have seemingly found a winning formula as of late, winning their last 5 games. That formula appears to be run the ball and pass only when needed. They will need to stick to this script tonight as the Steelers struggle to defend the run. I would also add that Miami’s quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has not played well in games under 4o degrees. He is 0-5 in those games and has not performed well. The Dolphins pass game has not been their strength to begin with, so they should continue to lean on the run. their pass game is averaging 178 yards per game, which is 28th in the NFL. Meanwhile, their run game, primarily behind De’Von Achane, has been averaging 126 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. If this offense can continue to run the ball effectively tonight in the cold, they should have a good chance at pulling off an upset.

Dolphins Defense

Miami’s defense is allowing 22.8 points per game, which is 15th int he league. They have been stingy against the pass, allowing 202 yards per game, which is 12th in the league. Tonight is also the first time that safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick, returns to Pittsburgh to face the team that traded for him and then traded him back to Miami. On the ground, the Dolphins have been vulnerable. They are allowing 131 yards per game, which is 25th in the NFL. They have an interesting matchup against a Steelers offense that has been able to get wins but are not doing anything particularly well.

Steelers Offense

Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 23.7 points per game which is 14th in the league. One would think that with all of the offseason acquisitions on offense (Aaron Rodgers, D.K Metcalf, Jonnu Smith) that this pass offense would be one of the best in the league. However, they are averaging 195 yards per game which is 23rd in the NFL. They are not getting much support from their run game, which is averaging 89 yards per game, which is 29th in the league. The main thing that they are doing well is playing complementary football. Their defense is taking the ball away at a high rate and the offense is limiting turning the ball over. They are +9 in turnover differential, which is 4th in the league.

Steelers Defense

The defense is not the Steelers defense of old. they are allowing 23.9 points per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been struggling in both phases of the game. They are allowing 244 pass yards per game, which is 28th in the league. They are allowing 125 rush yards per game, which is 21st in the league. They might be without Derrick Harmon tonight in the defensive line, which will open the run game for the Dolphins. T.J Watt will also be missing from action after being hospitalized with a lung condition earlier this week. Watt has missed 11 games in his career. The Steelers are 1-10 in those games. Stack this up against Tua’s record int he cold, something will have to give tonight.

Best Bet Background – De’Von Achane Rush Yards over 79.5

Achane is the number 1 weapon for this Miami offense. They have been running the ball incredibly effectively this year and Achane has been a main reason why. He has been averaging 86.6 yards per game and has gone over 80 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. The Steelers are going to be without T.J Watt and possibly Derrick Harmon on the defensive line. That will not improve a defense that is ranked near the bottom in run yards allowed. This will be a tough game in the cold and the team that runs the ball the best will most likely be the one who wins. The Dolphins run the ball incredibly effectively and so Achane is primed for a big night. The only worry for him would be an early exit due to injury, so make sure that you used a platform like DraftKings if you are worried about injury. They are currently running a 100% boost to any bet so you can get higher odds there for the same amount of yards.

Subscribe to Get Emails of Each Post!