Buffalo Bills – 10.5

• Head Coach – Sean McDermott
• OC – Joe Brady
• DC – Bobby Babich
• 2023 Record – 11-6
• Strength of Schedule – 23rd easiest

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Ever since Josh Allen’s emergence as a top quarterback, the Bills have been picked as Super Bowl contenders and have been exiting the playoffs early. However, this bet is geared towards the regular season. They finished 11-6 last year and claimed their fourth consecutive AFC East division title. In those 4 seasons, they have won 13, 11, 13, and 11 games. The question this year will be whether or not they can continue their regular season success and get over their playoff woes or will there be a decline.

They lost a big offensive weapon this offseason by trading Stefon Diggs to Houston. They let Gabe Davis walk in Free Agency to Jacksonville. They brought in veteran wide receiver MVS and drafted rookie and electric factory Keon Coleman out of FSU. With these moves, and the combination of tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, you can expect a larger emphasis on the run game with Josh Allens legs and James Cook coming out of the backfield. Last year, they were 6th in the NFL in scoring with 26.5 points per game. We will see if they can keep this up without their explosive receiving core.

The Bills defense is going to be the question mark for this year. They let the pillars like Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Tredavious White leave in the offseason. In a league built for passing, this secondary will have to step up in order to keep the team competitive. They have promoted linebackers coach Bobby Babich to coordinator. Anytime a new coordinator is put in place, it takes a while for defensive units to gel and come into their own. Veteran Von Miller is looking to bounce back from injury.

The overarching feeling from the 2023 Bills was that they tended to play to the level of their opponent. For example, they blew out the cowboys and then almost lost to the Tyrod Taylor led Giants. With a roster reconfiguration, it is not likely that this team will have the same level of output that we are used to seeing. I expect to see this Bills team struggle early on, particularly on defense. However, with Josh Allen leading the charge, they will always be in the running. A tough schedule and an unclear defensive picture will cause this team to be unseated as AFC East champs. the books are expecting a decline as well. The odds have shifted from -155 to -164 over the past month for the under.

Bet – Under 10.5 (-164)

Miami Dolphins – 9.5

• Head Coach – Mike McDaniel
• OC – Frank Smith
• DC – Anthony Weaver
• 2023 Record – 11-6
• Strength of Schedule – 8th easiest

The high-flying Dolphins team finished second in the AFC East in 2023. At times, it looked like they could not lose to anyone. They scored 70 points against the broncos early on. The offense is built on speed. mike Mcdaniel is a mad scientist with his play design. They can score seemingly any time. They went 11-6 last year but faltered in the playoffs when they went to a frigid arrowhead in the playoffs. Luckily for win totals, a majority of their games will be played in warm weather.

Offense was 2nd in points scored with 29.2 per game. Tua, Tyreek, Waddle, Mostert, and Achane are returning to the field this year. The explosiveness of this offense will be the reason that this team wins several games. They have the ability to score at will and has the ability to put teams on their heels from the very first possession. As long as Tua stays healthy, there is no reason to doubt that the Dolphins will once again field one of the leagues top offenses.

The Miami defense has a new play-caller. Last year, this unit was ranked 22nd in points allowed with 23 per game under Vic Fangio. We’ll see how the players adjust to Anthony Weavers scheme. They lose a big piece (and man) in Christian Wilkins to free agency. They reloaded their roster by adding veterans Calais Campbell and Jordan Poyer. They still have talent up front with Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips coming off of the edge to get after the quarterback. A new defense typically takes some time to gel so we may see this defense struggle early on. Luckily, they have their high scoring offense to lean on and should be able to figure it out.

The 2024 Dolphins will be carried by their high scoring offense. there is no doubt that as long as Tua is healthy, that they will continue to put up video game numbers on the field. Their defense had some serious turnover and brought in a new defensive coordinator but are still a talented group. The rate at which they score, Miami will be able to overcome any kind of defensive struggles that they will encounter this year. Not only are the dolphins going to win over 10 games, I believe that they are poised to win the AFC East title.

Bet – Over 9.5 (-134)

New York Jets – 9.5

• Head Coach – Robert Saleh
• OC – Nathaniel Hackett
• DC – Jeff Ulbrich
• 2023 Record – 7-10
• Strength of Schedule – 4th easiest

The on field Aaron Rodgers experience lasted a grand total of 1 electric patriotic entrance and 4 offensive plays last year. Once Rodgers went down, the Jets turned back into the same ol Jets. Jets fans once again had to watch terrible quarterback play waste the incredible defensive effort put forward by this team. Having grown up around Jets fans my entire life, it was a return to normalcy to see and hear the despair of this depressed fan base. Rodgers hailed as the savior. All of the 2023 offseason moves centered around bringing him to New York. HBO’s Hard Knocks featured the hope that he brought to this historically cursed franchise. Then, it was Zach Wilson time. And Tim Boyle time. And wishing that they could bring Mike White back time. Jets fans will be burying the tape of last year and have to be looking forward to a full year with Rodgers.

However, that was last year. Rodgers has gone through a very well publicized rehab process. He returned to voluntary workouts and looked decent for a 40-year old QB coming off of an Achilles tear. The front office bulked up the offensive line by bringing in veterans to ensure the safety of their franchise saving quarterback. They brought in Mike Williams as a potential number 2 to Garret Wilson. As long as Rodgers stays healthy, this offensive unit will be one of the better units in the league. Nathaniel Hackett’s offense is tailor made for Aaron Rodgers and all he has to do is hand over the keys. Just in case, they brought in Tyrod Taylor to back up Rodgers. Taylor has been an incredibly serviceable backup and a starter that can get you some wins. Not to mention, Breece Hall had a quietly good year coming off of an ACL. It was so good that it kept Dalvin Cook from seeing the field. He will remain a large part of this offense.

The defensive unit was the bright spot for this team last year. With Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams leading the squad, they return pretty much the same defensive roster and play caller. There is no indication that this unit will falter or drop off in anyway. They were 12th in the league in points allowed last year with 20.9 points per game. This was a slight decline from the previous year when they were allowing 18.6 points a game. However, with a much-improved offense this year, the Jets should be more balanced and will not have to rely so heavily on the defense this year. With Rodgers coming back, the offense should be able to sustain longer drives which would point to less play time for the defense. That will allow these guys to rest and ultimately allow less points.

Overall, this team will go as far as Rodgers takes them. With improvements to their offensive line, a jump in QB quality, a stout defense, and one of the easier expected schedules, this team will easily put-up double digits in the win column.

Bet – Over 9.5 (-162)

New England Patriots – 4.5

• Head Coach – Jerod Mayo
• OC – Alex Van Pelt
• DC – Demarcus Covington
• 2023 Record – 4-13
• Strength of Schedule – 31st easiest

Replacing a legend is never easy. Turning a struggling franchise around is a tough task for any first year head coach. Somehow, Head Coach Jerod Mayo is tasked with doing both. With the end of the Bill Belichick era, the Patriots have an uphill battle ahead of them.

They went out and brought Jacoby Brisset as the presumed starter and bridge quarterback for rookie Drake Maye. Coach Mayo hired OC Alex Van Pelt who has had success as a coordinator in recent seasons with the Cleveland Browns. He was also the QB coach for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and Rodgers has spoken very highly of Van Pelt. The downside here is that the Patriots offensive roster is significantly worse than the Browns and Brisset/Maye are not Aaron Rodgers. It is tough to see much upside for this offense that struggled with Mac Jones at the helm. They have some pieces like Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry but lack a true number 1 receiver. My guess is that they will be a run heavy and play action offense.

The defense is poised to be the reason that this team stays in games. With Mayo being a former Belichick player and coaching disciple, it is clear that defense will be the unit that the Patriots will hang their hat on. Last year they were 9th in the league in points allowed at 18.9. This may change with a new coordinator and play caller in the building, but it is hard to imagine that there would be a large drop-off considering that they are essentially bringing back the same defensive squad as last year. The major change came late in training camp when they traded all-pro edge rusher Matthew Judon. Another casualty of the organizational turnover.

Overall, with an unclear picture at quarterback and the 2nd most difficult schedule ahead, it is tough to see how this team wins more than 3 games. They open the season against a gauntlet of Cincinnati, Seattle, NY Jets, San Fran, Miami, and Houston. It doesn’t get much easier from there. I would expect to see this team picking at the top of the draft next year and has potential to be the worst record in 2024.

Bet – Under 4.5 (+106)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis