2024 Win Totals – NFC East

Evaluating each teams expected win totals

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, every fan is looking at their teams’ schedules through rose colored glasses. It is the time of year to be overly optimistic about your team’s future. Teams have gone through free agency where most fans are expecting every signing to turn into a homerun. We just completed the draft where every pick is going to be a hall of famer once they step on the field. Pre-season games are ongoing, and the season is right around the corner is right around the corner. Some teams are obviously more optimistic than others and the books certainly have their own view on how each team is going to perform this year. Let’s go through each team’s expected total wins this year and whether or not you should take their over or under. We’ll start with the NFC East and will go through each division.

NFC EAST

New York Giants – 6.5

Head Coach – Brian Daboll
OC – Mike Kafka
DC – Shane Bowen
2023 Record – 6-11
Strength of Schedule – 20th easiest

The New York Football Giants are coming off a tumultuous season where Daniel Jones suffered a neck injury and an ACL injury. In his 6 games played, the team went 1-5. However, the offense started to come together towards the end of the season with Tommy Devito and Tyrod Taylor at the helm and finished 5-6. They finished the year with one of the worst scoring offenses, managing 15.6 points per game. This was 30th in the league. The defense was not much better as they averaged 23.9 points allowed per game, which was 26th in the league. The big storylines in the offseason were centered around Saquon Barkley leaving for the rival Eagles and Darren Waller retiring to pursue a rap career. As a Giants fan, it is hard to remember a season where the fandom is going into a season with as much apathy as we have this year.

The offense will need to step up this year. Daniel Jones is coming off another injury riddled season. A constant conversation with this team has been their inability to protect the quarterback. In the offseason, they bulked up offensive line in an attempt to keep Daniel Jones healthy. They added right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor to most likely replace the struggling Evan Neal. They signed interior linemen Jon Runyan, Greg Van Roten, Aaron Stinnie, and Austin Schlottmann. Runyan and Van Roten will start alongside All-Pro Andrew Thomas and second year center John Michael Schmitz. They also hired a new offensive line coach which should help wash the stink of the terrible Bobby Johnson years. This is poised to be the best offensive line unit that the Giants have had in years. Another conversation was about surrounding Daniel Jones with some talent. They added rookie wide receiver, Malik Nabers, to provide explosive talent to this receiver’s room. He will join Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, and Wan’Dale Robinson to a crowded wide receiver room. They lost a major weapon when Saquon signed with the Eagles. They will attempt to fill some of the void with Devin Singletary. Daboll will be taking over the offensive play calling which is where he made a name for himself in Buffalo. With that being said, the Giants should at the very least be a middle of the road offense. It will ultimately be on Daniel Jones’ shoulders to execute.

The defense will have a new scheme after the departure of Wink Martindale. New defensive coordinator Shane Bowne inherits one of the better lines in the NFL with Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. They added OLB Brian Burns in a trade with Carolina which adds some much-needed pass rush to this defense. This line suits the Bowen defense as he likes to rush four and allow the backers and secondary to fall back into coverage and keep their eyes on the quarterback. With a disruptive pass rush, this could lead to some more turnovers for the Giants defense. In terms of linebackers, they have Bobby Okereke who played 100% of snaps last year. He plays sideline to sideline and led the team in tackles last year. They have a young secondary that will most likely struggle. Last years first round pick, Deontae Banks, is going to need to have a large jump from year 1 to year 2 as he will now be following the number one receiver on every team that they face. The second corner is still a bit of a question mark with Nick McCloud and Cordale Flott competing for that spot. Newly drafted Dru Phillips will be taking the nickel spot. The safeties are young as well with fourth year player, Jason Pinnock, being the most experienced. He will pair with either Dane Belton or rookie Tyler Nubin.

While they certainly won’t be Superbowl contenders, the Giants will be in games due to their good coaching. Last year. everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong for the Giants. they have made the appropriate moves in the offseason to upgrade this roster. Thye do have a tough schedule but given the fact that Daboll was able to win 3 games with Tommy Devito as his quarterback, there should be faith in his ability to coach up a bad team than. They also have matchups against the NFC south which has potential to be the worst matchup in the NFL. I believe that they will end up with a slightly better record than last year.

Bet- Over 6.5 (+122)

Philadelphia Eagles- 10.5

Head Coach – Nick Sirianni
OC – Kellen Moore
DC – Vic Fangio
2023 Record – 11-6
Strength of Schedule – 9th easiest

The Eagles got off to a hot start in 2023 and then went into free fall to close out the year. Big Dom got ejected from the 49ers game for hitting a player and it was all downhill from there for the 2023 Eagles (Big Dom has since become a Philly legend and earned himself some new job titles).

The offense was a shell of itself without Shane Steichen calling the shots. This off season, they went out and hired Kellen Moore, who likes to dial up the air raid which suits the offensive unit perfectly with Wide receivers AJ Bron, Devonta Smith, and Tight end Dallas Goedert. To add some balance, they went out and signed Saquon Barkley from division rival New York Giants. Barkley will be running behind the best offensive line of his career, even with the departure of podcaster Jason Kelce. With Jalen Hurts looking to have a bounce back year, this offense should be back to its high-flying ways of 2022.

The defense was lackluster at the start of last year and turned into a full-blown disaster down the stretch. They lost 5 of their last 6 games giving up 29.6 points a game. They topped it off with a 32-9 blowout to the Baker Mayfield led Bucs in the NFC Wild Card round. A head scratching move to bring in Matt Patricia as the savior halfway through the year was a tough one for every fan to understand but Nick Sirianni thought he still had that dog in him. Bad choice. However, they brought in Vic Fangio who despite being a lackluster head coach, has had success as a defensive coordinator, despite rumblings that he was difficult to play for in Miami.

With a new coaching staff and a fairly easy schedule ahead of them, the Eagles will most likely bounce back and win double digit games. Winning 11 games in the NFL is tough but the Eagles are built to do it.

Bet – Over 10.5 (-134)

Washington Commanders- 6.5

Head Coach – Dan Quinn
OC- Kliff Kingsbury
DC – Joe Whitt Jr.
2023 Schedule – 4-13
Strength of Schedule – 13th easiest

A lot of change has come to the Washington football team over the past few years. New names, ownership, QBs, coaches, etc. This year is no different. They parted ways with Ron Rivera and replaced him with Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. With the 2nd overall pick in this years draft, they selected Jayden Daniels out of LSU to be their franchise QB. They brought in Kliff Kingsbury back from his year off from coaching. It is hard to predict how this year will go for this motley crew. Dan Quinn had a couple of good years in Atlanta but after the 28-3 Superbowl, his teams never won more than 7 games. Kliff has never actually been a NFL offensive coordinator.

A rookie QB is always going to struggle in his first couple of years. CJ Stroud is an exception that proves the rule and unfortunately, every rookie QB this year will be expected by their fans to replicate the historic year that Stroud had. In reality, Daniels will have his ups and downs this year. They hired a new offensive line coach. Bobby Johnson, who was fired from the Giants last year. This move was significant because his squads have not performed well historically, and a solid offensive line is vital to a young quarterback’s success. Jayden Daniels will be running for his life behind this line. Another new addition to the offense that will be negatively impacted by this group is running back Austin Ekeler. The touchdown machine that made his name as a Charger is going to have an uphill battle with a Bobby Johnson line.

The defensive unit used to be the strength of this team. However, the once heralded defensive line has been traded away piece by piece and the unit is clearly in a rebuild. Bringing Quinn in should cover up some of the issues but overall, this side of the ball will most likely struggle to keep the Commanders in games. The remaining two pieces are defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathn Allen. They signed former 4th overall pick, Clelin Ferrell, to rush the edge. They also signed end Dorance Armstrong to a 3-year deal. He comes over from the Cowboys where he played under Quinn on defense. He was a productive backup, so this is his opportunity to make a name for himself. In the linebacker’s room, Quinn gets his old middle linebacker in Bobby Wagner. A Seahawks legend will bring plenty of experience to this defense.

Overall, this is a first year rebuild for Quinn and crew and despite a middle of the road schedule, it is hard to find how this team will win 7 games. If they fail to get off to a hot start against the Bucs and Giants, they will be in for a long year.

Bet- Under 6.5 (-105)

Dallas Cowboys- 9.5

Head Coach – Mike McCarthy
OC – Brian Schottenheimer
DC – Mike Zimmer
2023 Record: 12-5
+Strength of Schedule: 22nd easiest

According to owner Jerry Jones, the Cowboys are all in. What that means is anyone’s guess. They were relatively quiet in the offseason this year. For once, they are not being spoken about (yet) as Superbowl contenders.

Dak is due for a historic contract in the 2025 offseason. The main criticism of him has been the inability to win in the playoffs. In the regular season, he has been the quarterback of a top 5 offense in scoring the past 3 years. They brought Zeke Elliot back from the Patriots to hopefully reignite the run game. Big Mike Mccarthy is going to continue to call plays. The personnel has not changed much. I think we can expect more of the same in terms of output from the Cowboys offense.

The defense is going to be the question for this team. Not due to the players on the field. When you have stars like Micah Parson, Dlaw, and Trevon Diggs, you will never be viewed as a bad defense. the question at hand is the coaching. Losing Dan Quinn, who was vital in turning these guys into stars, and replacing him with Mike Zimmer was a great move on paper. Quinn made these guys a team and a unit to be feared. Zimmer’s tenure as the Vikings head coach always featured a stout defense. However, defensive units typically take a few weeks to gel. Luckily, the Cowboys do not face a ton of firepower in their first six weeks, with Detroit and Baltimore as the exceptions.

Overall, this team is too talented to bet against. They bring back essentially the same roster on both sides of the ball and despite a quiet offseason, they have players at key positions that are looking ahead to big contracts. I believe that they find a way to get to at least 11 wins this year.

Bet- Over 9.5(+144)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis