Baltimore Ravens – 10.5

• Head Coach – John Harbaugh
• OC- Todd Monken
• DC – Zach Orr
• 2023 Record – 13-4
• Strength of Schedule – 29th Easiest

The 2023 Ravens saw the return of MVP Lamar Jackson. The 2nd year in Todd Monken’s offense paid dividends this year. The Ravens offense was 4th in points scored at 28.4 points per game. Pair that with the league’s top defense, which only allowed 16.5 points per game, that is a recipe to win a lot of games.

The Ravens offense received yet another huge weapon in the form of Running back Derrick Henry. Add this to the running threat of Lamar, blocked by fullback Patrick Ricard, and an effective offensive line up front, this team will continue to have the ability to run the ball at will. Last year, the team put up over 100 yards in every game except for their loss in the playoffs. This trend will most certainly continue. In addition to a run game that will wear a defense down, this offense will be able to utilize the passing game to get down the field and in the endzone. Second year wide receiver Zay Flowers will look to top his impressive rookie season. Tight end Mark Andrews will be back at full health and will continue to be Lamars red zone target. It is hard to imagine but this offense will have a better year than last.

On defense, the Ravens remain the Ravens. Historically a great defensive team, they will continue their tradition. Kyle Hamilton has established himself as one of the best young safeties in the league. Roquan Smith flies around the middle of the field like a modern-day Ray Lewis. Last year, this team was first in points per game, sacks, and takeaways. If they continue to play this way, they will go down as a historically great defense. For the context of the 2024 season win total, a good to great defense will continue to complement this high-powered offense.

Despite having one of the toughest expected schedules, this team is going to win a lot of games due to the impressive balance that they have on both sides of the ball. They are currently 3rd in odds to win the Super Bowl (+950). Given the outlook for this team, they will be expected to win more than 10.5 games this year.

Bet – Over 10.5 (-122)

Cincinnati Bengals – 10.5

• Head Coach – Zac Taylor
• OC – Dan Pitcher
• DC – Lou Anarumo
• 2023 record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 6th Easiest

Joe Burrow is back. He will have to show that his wrist injury is not alarm worthy. Last year, the Bengals got off to a slower expected start and when Burrow did start, the Bengals were 5-5. After starting 1-3, the Bengals got hot and won 4 straight, including a win over the Bills and a win over the 49ers. It looked like they were going to turn the season around. Then they dropped one to Houston and finally, lost to the Ravens, which is the game that knocked Burrow out for the remainder of the season. It was a testament to the team’s talent and the coaching staff that the team finished with a 9-8 record. Backup Quarterback Jake Browning led the team to a 4-3 record to salvage a moral victory with a winning record. With Joe back at the helm, we can expect a return to the Super Bowl caliber Bengals, given that he can stay healthy.

The offense is set up to put up points in several different ways. As mentioned above, this team will go as far as Joe Burrow will take them. They have potentially the best wide receiver duo in the league with Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins. They lost receiver Tyler Boyd in free agency but added tight end Mike Geisecki. They traded running back Joe Mixon but added running back Zack Moss to fill that void. With time running out on some of these star rookie contracts, the window is now for this offense to show what they are capable of.

Lou Annarumo’s defense struggled in 2023. After losing Safety Jessie Bates last year, they seemed to have lost some of their consistency. They allowed 22.6 points per game last year, which was ranked 21st in the league. They will need to improve in order to take the pressure off of the offense. It all starts up front with the defensive line consisting of Sam Hubbard, Bj Hill, newly added Sheldon Rankins, and Trey Hendrickson. This group will be the focal point of the defense as they are built to stop the run and get after the QB.

The 2024 Bengals win totals will depend on the health of Joe Burrow. When Joe is playing, they are 29-22-1. The two seasons where he has started every game, they have records of 10-6 and 12-4. With him being healthy this year and a schedule that is on the easier side, the Bengals will win more than 10.5 games.

Bet – Over 10.5 ( -120)

Cleveland Browns – 8.5

• Head Coach – Kevin Stefanski
• OC – Ken Dorsey
• DC – Jim Schwartz
• 2023 Record – 11-6
• Strength of Schedule – 30th easiest

2023 was a wild one for these Browns. Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson went down with injuries. Joe Flacco was signed off the couch and went on a magical run that resulted in a playoff berth. Despite missing their top two offensive weapons, they still ranked 10th in points per game with 21.4 points per game. The defense was stout. Featuring Myles Garrett up front, they ranked 13th in points per game allowed. Looking ahead to 2024, there are going to have Watson and Chubb back on offense. We’ll see how that translates to the win/loss column.

The Browns offense gets two big weapons back in Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb(It was announced on 8/26 that Chubb will miss the first 4 games of the season). They added talent to the wide receiver room by adding Jerry Jeudy to pair with Amari Cooper. Add Elijah Moore in as the slot receiver, this group provides Watson plenty of options to spread the ball around. A player to keep an eye on will be tight end David Njoku. He had a breakout year last year with Joe Flacco, catching 81 balls for 882 yards and 6 tds. Career highs across the board. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep up the same production with Watson back in the mix. They bring in a new offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, who was fired by the Bills after struggling through the first 10 games. Struggling to score with Josh Allen at quarterback would be a red flag for most teams. The Browns decided to bring him in to see if he can take this Browns offense to the next level.

The defense returns most of their starters this year. Another year under fiery coordinator, Jim Schwartz, the Browns defense will continue to set the tone for this team. They already have superstar edge rusher Myles Garrett, who will wreck any gameplan with his freakish size and athleticism. They also bring in veteran edge rusher, Zadarius Smith, to bookend with Garrett. In the middle, they have defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris. They added veteran linebackers Devin Bush and Jordan Hicks to sure up the middle. In short, this defense has a frightening front 7.

The 2023 Browns managed to win 11 games with a revolving door at quarterback. The 2024 team has added talent to both sides of the ball. The issue is that they have the 3rd toughest schedule in the league and happen to play in the toughest division in the league. It is never a certainty that players come back from injury the same as they were before. Watson’s play will be a vital part to the success of the offense and by extension the team. They will also have a new coordinator who is coming off a very tough exit in Buffalo. Despite having a talented roster, I do not see them overcoming their tough schedule.

Bet – Under 8.5 (+112)

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5

• Head Coach – Mike Tomlin
• OC – Arthur Smith
• DC – Teryl Austin
• 2023 Record – 10-7
• Strength of Schedule- 32nd Easiest

Quarterback play for the 2023 Steelers saw the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Picket, and Mason Rudolph. Cheers for offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, were literally heard round the world. With good reason. This offense finished 28th in points scored with 17.9 points per game. Defense defined the success of this team. They were 6th in points allow which helped Mike Tomlin keep his streak of never having a losing season alive.

The 2024 offense will look vastly different. They brought in Russel Wilson and Justin Fields to compete for the starting quarterback role, although it is more lkely that Russ starts. They bring in a new coordinator and play caller by hiring Arthur Smith. Smith had success in Tennessee which led to him getting the head coaching gig in Atlanta. He is definitely a better coordinator than he is a head coach. His offense features the run game and heavy tight end usage. We can expect tight end Pat Freiermuth to have a big year. He will also have two solid running backs to use in different scenarios. Najee Harris will continue to be the workhorse and power back. Jaylen Warren has shown that he will be the change-of-pace back and catch balls out of the backfield. They also added swiss army knife, Cordarrelle Patterson, who can run and catch. He will also be a valuable special teams weapon with the new kick off rules. Wide receiver George Pickens will need to have a breakout year. They traded Dionte Johnson to the Panthers and replaced him with Van Jefferson. The receiver room will be one of the bigger question marks moving forward for this team.

The defense will continue to dominate as long as they have outside linebacker T.J Watt. Coming off of a 19-sack season, he is undoubtedly going to continue his incredible career. Even scarier for opposing teams, they found a player to play opposite him with Alex High Smith, who added 7 sacks of his own last year. They added linebacker Patrick Queen, which was a double win as they get a great player and stole him from division rival, Baltimore. They still have Minkah Fitzpatrick running the secondary. This defense will continue their dominance and continue to keep the team in games, even if the offense continues to struggle.

This one is simple. Don’t bet against Tomlin. Even if Russ and Justin Fields split time as the starter this year, Coach Tomlin will find a way to get his team to at least 9 wins.

Bet – Over 8.5 (+116)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis