Chicago Bears – 8.5

• Head Coach – Matt Eberflus
• OC – Shane Waldron
• DC – Eric Washington
• 2023 Record – 7-10
• Strength of Schedule – 3rd Easiest

The Justin Fields experiment has come to an end. The Bears waited to ship him off to Pittsburgh to bring in a ton of talent. The 2024 Bears have a brand-new offensive look. Coach Matt Eberflus is entering his 3rd year and some are saying that it is his make-or-break year. Last year, the Bears got off to a slow start but after some trades and unforeseen resiliency, the team started playing better and went 5-3 in the final 8 games.

On offense, the Bears addressed several areas of need. They started with the quarterback by drafting Caleb Williams with the 1st overall pick. They also drafted Rome Odunze to add the wide receiver room that already included DJ Moore and free agent signing Keenan Allen. They signed running back Deandre Swift who had a breakout year in Philly. They went out and hired Shane Waldron as their new OC to run the show. With all these new moving parts, the offense will have to find a way to gel together and be more efficient and effective than they have been in previous years.

Defense is the strong suit for Matt Eberflus. After a trade and sign for Montez Sweat, the 2023 defensive turned around almost immediately. The improved record and turning point for the season can be pointed directly to the acquisition of Sweat. They allowed just over 17 points per game over the final stretch of the season. They added talent to their secondary as well with the signings of Jaylon Johnson and Kevin Byard III. The Bears defense will need to continue the way they played down the stretch in order to give a brand new offense some time to find their identity.

The 2024 Bears will go as far as their new offense will take them. All factors point towards a successful season for this team. They have way more talent on offense. They have a new playcaller who had success in Seattle. They have a stout defense. With one of the leagues easier expected schedules, this Bears squad has the potential to make some noise in the contentious NFC North.

Bet – Over 8.5 (-160)

Detroit Lions – 10.5

• Head Coach – Dan Campbell
• OC – Ben Johnson
• DC – Aaron Glenn
• 2023 Record – 12-5
• Strength of Schedule – 21st Easiest

The brand new Lions are fresh off of their first playoff win in 30 years. Head coach Dan Campbell has imprinted his identity on this team. It was not a quick turnaround by any means but in his third year, the results came through. They started off with a primetime upset in Kansas City and finished within a few minutes of making the Superbowl. This team is tough, gritty, and resilient. If there was ever a team to bet on to get back to the top of the mountain, it would be this team.

The Lions offense has turned itself into one of the best offensive units in the league. With Quarterback Jared Goff leading the charge, they have a talented group of tough and gritty players that fit the identify of their head coach. All pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is returning after signing a contract worth up to $120 million. He is flanked by Jameson Williams, who is poised for a breakout year after showing flashes, and Khalif Raymond. There is a 2 headed monster in the backfield with David Montgomery and Jamir Gibbs. Now Gibbs is battling through injuries so we will see if Montgomery is ready to take on the 3-down role until Gibbs is all the way back. Their offensive line anchored is by Penei Sewell. With Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Graham Glasgow and Kevin Zeitler, this line is one of the best in the league. They will be able to set the tone up front for both the run and pass game. As a whole, this offense will return to form and should once again be towards the top of the league in terms of points scored.

The defense is going to be the question mark for this team. Last year, they gave up 23.2 points per game which was 23rd in the league. Part of this may be due to the fact that they were playing with a lead in most games and could give up points towards as the games closed out. They will have to continue to improve this year, especially as they face one of the tougher schedules in the league. Thye have a star upfront in Aiden Hutchinson. They are looking for second year linebacker, Jack Campbell to build on a good rookie year. The secondary got a boost by trading for corner Carlton Davis III. They also signed corner Amik Robertson to pair with Davis. They made some other depth signings to the secondary. In order for this team to take the next step, Aaron Genns defenses will need to continue to improve.

The first 7 games of their season are very winnable. If they are off to an exepcted hot start, they will be right in the mix for the number 1 seed for the NFC. Looking at the schedule, it is reasonable to believe that 5-2 would be their record if they are not 7-0. That means that they will have to win 6 of their final 10 games down the stretch in order to hit their over. As I mentioned before, this is not the team that I would bet against.

Bet – Over 10.5 (-112)

Green Bay Packers – 9.5

• Head Coach – Matt Lafleur
• OC – Adam Stenavich
• DC – Jeff Hafley
• 2023 Record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 19th easiest

The 2023 season was the first year that Jordan Love took over for Aaron Rodgers. There was a struggle early on in the season, but Love started to show flashes of why he was drafted in the 1st round. The inconsistency from this team was head scratching. A week removed from beating Patrick Mahomes and the defending Superbowl champs, they lose to the New York Giants led by Tommy Devito. They were still able to turn this up and down year into a winning record and ultimately lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the 49ers.

The 2024 Packers offense will be hoping that Jordan Love can continue to show the Aarond Rodgers-esque flashes that he showed last year. His receiving corps was one of the youngest in the league but continued to improve. Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs, and Jayden Reed are a talented group and are potentially poised for a breakout year. Adding running back Josh Jacobs in free agency is going to be an upgrade to a running game that struggled last year without a healthy Aaron Jones. A good run game will allow this team to run an effective play action game style and open up more opportunities for Love to sling the ball to these young receivers.

The defense in 2023 struggled to be consistent. They addressed some of their defensive concerns by signing Safety Xavier McKinney in free agency. McKinney is one of the games bright young stars that never quite had a breakout year in New York. They also hired a new coordinator in Jeff Hafley, who was the head coach of Boston College for the past 4 years. It will be up to him to mold this group into a more consistent unit. He has his work cut out for him as this was the weak spot of the 2023 campaign. With that being said, they do have talent in some key spots. On the defensive line, they have Preston Smith and Rashan Gary coming off of the edges. They combined for 17 sacks last year. Up the middle, they have big man Kenny Clark who added 7.5 acks of his own last year. The linebacker corps is led by Quay Walker who is one year removed from leading the team in tackles. He will be looking to have a bounce back season. In the secondary, they still have Jaire Alexander who is one of the top corners in the league. They get some much-needed help with the McKinney signing. With these pieces in place, it will be up to the coach to make this unit gel and allow for the offense to win them games.

This team will need to get off to a hot start. They have a brutal schedule coming off of their week 10 bye week. They come back to face the Bears and then run through a gauntlet of the 49ers, Dolphins, Lions, Seahawks, and Saints. Given the tough schedule, new dc, and youth on their roster in general, I see this team winning 8-9 games.

Bet – Under 9.5 (+112)

Minnesota Vikings – 7.5

• Head Coach – Kevin O’Connell
• OC – Wes Phillips
• DC – Brian Flores
• 2023 Record – 7-10
• Strength of Schedule – 28th easiest

The Vikings had a rough year last year. No way around it. They were coming off a year where seemingly every one score game went their way. Then the football gods flipped the script. They struggled out of the gate. Justin Jefferson got hurt. Kirk Cousins went down with an achilles. They then had a revolving door of quarterbacks including Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and others.

They let Kirk Cousins go to free agency where he once again secured the bag by signing in Atlanta. They bring in Sam Darnold on a 1 year prove it deal. He will act as a bridge quarterback for rookie JJ McCarthy. Given McCarthy’s season ending injury, Darnold will be the man for the 2024 season. He comes to a team with some serious offensive firepower and a quarterback friendly system. They brought in some help for the run game in Aaron Jones. He will add a dynamic to this offense that they were missing last year after the departure of Dalvin Cook. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back and fully healthy. He will continue to be the focal point of this offense. This is especially true as his running mate, Jordan Addison had a troublesome offseason with a DUI arrest and a training camp injury. The other big target would be tight end, T.J Hockenson but he is currently on the PUP list and could potentially miss 3-7 regular season games. Darnold will rely heavily on Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson as he attempts to restart his career.

The defense is moving into year 2 with Brian Flores. They were 13th in the league in points allowed in 2023. The secondary of this defense signed two big free agents in corners Shaquill Griffin and Stephon Gillmore. They join Harrison Smith in a secondary with plenty of experience. They went out and signed linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman. These two bring plenty of experience of their own. Van Ginkel was with Flores when flores was the Miami head coach. Cashman comes over from the Texans where he had 106 combined tackles last year. It will be a matter of this team coming together as they continue to add talent and get adjusted to the defensive scheme. Flores is a top defensive mind and should once again have his unit performing towards the top half of the league.

I don’t believe that this team is going to make any kind of deep playoff run. In fact, I would not be suprised if they end up winning 8 games. They have good coaching in KOC and Brian Flores. Last year, this team showed that they have the capability to be competitive no matter who the Quarterback is. However, with one of the tougher expected schedules in the league and either Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy as their triggermen, it is hard to see this team winning any more games than they did last year.

Bet – Under 7.5 (-170)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis