Kansas City Chiefs – 11.5

• Head Coach – Andy Reid
• OC – Matt Nagy
• DC – Steve Spagnuolo
• 2023 Record – 11-6
• Strength of Schedule – 12 Easiest

The back-to-back Super Bowl champions are looking to be the first team to three-peat in NFL history. Last season, they did it in an unconventional fashion for the Andy Reid coached Chiefs. They relied on defense and their run game. The offense, which is normally expected to be the top of the league, ranked 15th in points scored with 21.8 points per game. the lack of consistency from their receivers led to a lot of “struggles” for Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce battled through some injuries and failed to hit the 1000-yard mark for the first time in 8 seasons. The team was carried by their defense, coach by Steve Spagnuolo. Spag’s defense ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed with 17.3 points per game. All that is to say, despite a “down year”, they still won the Super Bowl.

The offense retooled their receiving corps after last year. They signed Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency. They drafted rookie Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Worthy broke the NFL combine 40-yard dash record posting a 4.21. After a decent rookie year and a tumultuous offseason, Rashee Rice enters his 2nd year in this offense. This team is poised to fly around with speed that not many defenses will be able to keep up with. When they aren’t throwing the ball, they will be running it down your throat with the angriest runner we have seen in year, Isiah Pacheco. Kelce and his army of Swifties are back. This offense should be a top 5 offense this year.

The defense is coming off of a great year. In the offseason, they made sure to bring back All-Pro defensive tackle, Chris Jones. With their big man up front secured, there was not much left over for corner L’Jarius Sneed, who was traded to the Titans to sign a deal to become one of the highest paid corners in the NFL. They have some young corners that will have to fill his place. Spags has a history of getting the most out of his defenses and there is no doubt that the young corners will be coached up to make up for the loss of Sneed. The majority of the defense returns, which is huge for the continuity of this defensive unit and ultimately this Chiefs team.

The 2024 season for the Chiefs will be dominated by the headlines highlighting the quest for the three-peat. The fact that the Chiefs tend to get hot when it matters the most makes them a difficult team to predict for the regular season. Mahomes himself has said that the regular season games are almost boring at this point. That being said, they have a middle of the road strength of schedule, a retooled offense, and a defense that was top of the league returning most of its starters. Add in the weak division that they play in, this team will win more than 11 games.

Bet – Over 11.5 (-112)

Las Vegas Raiders – 6.5

• Head Coach – Antonio Pierce
• OC – Luke Getsy
• DC – Patrick Graham
• 2023 Record – 8-9
• Strength of Schedule – 24th Easiest

The 2023 season was a mess for Raiders. Josh McDaniels made a bunch of odd decisions coming into the season. He alienated star running back Josh Jacobs in the preseason. He brought in Jimmy G to be the starting quarterback. He beefed with tight end Darren Waller over a wedding invitation and traded him to the New York Giants. That was all before the season actually began. As the games started, the offense (which is his bread and butter) refused to throw the ball to Davante Adams. It was not surprising that McDaniels was fired midway through the season and opened the door for interim coach Antonio Pierce. With Pierce as head coach, the Raiders got new life. They went 5-4 under Pierce and finished with an 8-9 overall record. Pierce was hired full time in the offseason and is running the show now.

All that being said, the Raiders offense still has some large questions. A new offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, will be revamping the offense. Getsy was most recently fired from the Bears for failing to develop the offense. He’ll have a fresh slate but a similar challenge in Las Vegas. They let Jacobs go to Green Bay via free agency. They signed quarterback Gardner Minshew to come in and compete against second year quarterback Aiden O’Connell for the top spot. Tight end, Brock Bowers, was drafted in the first round in the draft to pair with Michael Mayer. They of course still have Davante Adams who will be the top target. With a lot of uncertainty, it is hard to predict how this offense will perform.

The defense is a different story. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is returning for his third year in the role. His defensive line has potentially the best duo in the league with edge rusher Maxx Crosby and the newly added tackle, Christian Wilkins. They will be the tone setters for this defense. Last year, this unit was a bright spot as they were 9th in the league in points allowed per game at 19.5. They will have to continue this trend as the offense figures out their side of the ball. Given Pierces history as a defensive coach/player and Grahams high defensive IQ, this side of the ball should be the one that stands out for the Raiders.

Despite having a lot of positivity around the new direction of this franchise there are far too many factors to have much confidence in their ability to hit the over for their win total this year. The first full year under a new head coach without a franchise quarterback could spell trouble. Considering that they have an incredibly tough schedule, I don’t see this team winning 7 games.

Bet – Under 6.5 (+110)

Denver Broncos – 5.5

• Head Coach – Sean Payton
• OC – Joe Lombardi
• DC – Vance Joseph
• 2023 Record – 8-9
• Strength of Schedule – 25th Easiest

The 2023 Broncos was the first year under Sean Payton. They were coming off of the disastrous Nathaniel Hackett year where they finished 5-13. Payton was tasked with turning the team around and with making Russel Wilson the Seattle Russel Wilson. That did not work out. Instead, it came out that the team was actively trying to bench Wilson in order to avoid having to pay out an injury guarantee clause in his contract. Things got ugly and Russ is now in Pittsburgh and still being paid by Denver. The Broncos showed flashes of being able to win against some of the better teams in the NFL. After a 1-5 start, they won 5 games in a row, including wins over playoff teams like the Packers, Bills, Chiefs, and Browns. They went 2-4 in the last 6 games however and ultimately ended the year at 8-9. They will be looking at 2024 to truly turn the program around.

With the departure of Russell Wilson, the Denver QB situation is currently up in the air. It is a choice between former Jets QB Zach Wilson, Jarett Stidham, and rookie Bo Nix. This does not inspire confidence in the offense. Payton does have the reputation of being an offensive genius and he will need to flex it in order to make this offense go. When they choose a starting quarterback, they will also need to figure out how to get the ball down the field. They have Javonte Williams coming out of the backfield who after a great rookie season, he has struggled the past two years. They traded away wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns. Courtland Sutton is a great wide receiver but often injured. The offensive line is perhaps the best part of this offense so they will be able to set the tone and open up the running lanes for the backs.

The defense is supposed to be the strength of this team. They are in their second year under Vance Joseph’s tutelage. Last year, they ranked 27th in points per game allowed. They almost led up an NFL record amount of points in a game to the Miami Dolphins. They let veteran safety Justin Simmons leave in free agency. It is hard to pinpoint the stars on this defense outside of corner Patrick Surtain. There is still a chance that this “no-name defense” surprises everyone and becomes a force to be reckoned with.

5.5 is one of the lowest expected win totals in the league. Looking at their schedule, it is easy to see why. There are only a few potential wins outside of their division that many would pencil in as a sure win. With so much uncertainty, this feels like a rebuilding year and I think that we can expect tough year for Denver.

Bet – Under 5.5 (+116)

Los Angeles Chargers – 8.5

• Head Coach – Jim Harbaugh
• OC – Greg Roman
• DC – Jesse Minter
• 2023 Record – 5-12
• Strength of Schedule – 2nd Easiest

The end of the 2023 season was a mercy for the Chargers fans. Brandon Staley was fired as head coach after an embarrassing loss to the Raiders during primetime. The team seemingly quit as they allowed their division rivals to score 63 points on them in primetime. General manager Tom Telesco was fired as well. They went out and hired Jim Harbaugh fresh off of a Michigan run that ended in a national championship. He hand-picked the Chargers as the team that he would like to coach due to the presence of quarterback Justin Herbert. Harbaugh has had success at every coaching stop that he has made. He will bring in his unique personality and imprint it on this team as he aims to turn this talented roster into a championship caliber squad.

The offense saw a large upheaval in the offseason. Their top wide receiver, Keenan Allen, was traded to Chicago. Their other top receiver, Mike Williams, is now with the New York Jets. Their top rusher, Austin Ekeler, left for Washington. New offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, brought his Ravens running backs, J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards, in to help set up his offense. Wide receiver Ladd McConkey was drafted to help a decimated wide receiver’s room. Second year Quentin Johnston and vet Joshua Palmer are not exactly world beaters. It is clear by the personnel and by the coaching staff that this team has been built to run the ball in order to set up the play action and pass game. As a result, tight ends are going to play a big part in this offense. The charges have a decent receiving pair of those in Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. It will be interesting to see how effective this type of offense will be in a league that focuses on the pass so heavily.

The defense is built to match their offense. They have they have a dynamic pass rush duo in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. When these two are healthy at the same time, they can blow up any gameplan put in front of them. The health will be a concern though. To add depth, they signed OLB Bud Dupree who has had success in getting to the quarterback despite a couple of down years. In the secondary, they are led by safety Derwin James Jr. and Asante Samuel Jr. The question in the secondary will be at CB2. Right now, they have Kristian Fulton listed in that position. Fulton comes over from Tennessee and has never played a full season worth of games in his 4-year career.

Navigating change is always going to be difficult. With the mass number of offensive changes in the offseason, a lot of people are concerned about this team and their ability to score. This team will play a grinding style of football where situational football will become important as they are going to have to find ways to win in the fourth quarter. Their expected win total is high due to their easy schedule and their coaching. This is one of those tough bets where you can convince yourself to pick either scenario but if they hit the over, you will feel like an idiot for betting against Jim Harbaugh. I’m not going to make that mistake. This team is going to hit their over for the year.

Bet – Over 8.5 (-144)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis