Los Angeles Rams – 8.5

• Head Coach – Sean McVay
• OC – Mike LaFleur
• DC – Chris Shula
• 2023 Record – 10-7
• Strength of Schedule – 17th Easiest

The Rams saw the return of Matthew Stafford which led to another winning season. While everyone knows that this is a quarterback driven league, the Rams success truly depends on the health of their star QB. Just two years ago, they won the Super Bowl. A year ago, Stafford missed significant time due to injury. Last year, he was back, relatively healthy, and they were able to make it to the playoffs. They ultimately lost in Stafford’s return to Detroit and the Rams season ended on a down note. Going forward, it will be up to Stafford and head coach Sean McVay to guide this team back to the Super Bowl.

The offense in 2023 saw the emergence of two offensive stars. The first being wide receiver Puka Nacua who broke the record for receptions and receiving yards by a rookie. Him paired with Cooper Kupp makes for a high-powered passing offense. With Stafford pulling the trigger, it is going to be nearly impossible for opposing defenses to slow down this combination. to add some balance to this offense, we also saw the breakout of second year running back, Kyren Williams, who rushed for over 1000 yards. They drafted running back Blake Corum out of Michigan to have a 1-2 punch coming out of the backfield. These backs will help take some of the pressure off of Stafford and the passing game. This type of balance and firepower is scary, especially considering that this offense was already a top ten offense.

The defense lost a generational talent this past offseason when Aaron Donald retired. Donald, who was touted as one of the best football players of all time, will not be easy to replace. Sean Mcvay is excited about the talent that they have up front in order to fill the void. What was a constant strength for the Rams is now a big question mark headed into this year. Another big change is the coach. Raheem Morris left to take the head coaching spot in Atlanta. Morris was a player’s coach who had his team overperforming. His departure, paired with Donalds retirement, means that this defense will have a whole new look and identity. They signed corners Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams to add experience to their secondary. They also added vet safety, Kameron Curl. So, they have talent, but it will be a matter of putting it all together.

This team needs a few things to go right in order for them to have a successful season. However, I believe that the coaching of Sean McVay will be the steady hand on the wheel for any bumps in the road. Matthew Stafford is back and healthy. Their schedule is middle of the road in terms of difficulty. This team will be able to win at least 9 games.

Bet – Over 8.5 (-152)

Arizona Cardinals – 7.5

• Head Coach – Johnathan Gannon
• OC – Drew Petzing
• DC – Nick Rallis
• 2023 Record – 4-13
• Strength of Schedule – 16th Easiest

Head Coach Jonhnathan Gannon’s first year was not great but in all fairness to him, he did not have his franchise quarterback. Kyler Murray was coming back from a torn ACL, Deandre Hopkins was now in Tennesse, and JJ Watt had just retired. They started off the season with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who led them to a 1-7 record. One start from Clayton Tune and then Kyler Murray was back. Due to their record, the Cardinals were very cautious with Murray. He led them to a 3-5 record to finish out the season 4-13.

The offense in 2023 was one of the worst in the league. They ranked 24th with 19.4 points per game. They did not have a stable quarterback situation. They also did not have a true number one receiver. Both of these issues were addressed in the offseason. Kyler Murray will be returning with a clean bill of health. They used the 4th pick in the draft to select Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Tight end, Trey McBride, is coming back after a breakout second year where he was the leading receiver for the Cardinals with 825 yards. The fact that the leading receiver did not break the 1000-yard mark does not inspire much confidence in this offense. Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a great addition to this offense. The running game was more effective as they did have a 1000-yard rusher in James Connor. He will continue to be the lead back this year. All being said, the Arizona offense should see an uptick this year with Kyler Murray back and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.

The defense for Arizona will continue to be a point of concern. Despite having a defensive minded head coach, the Cardinals were the second worst defense in the league last year. They addressed some of these concerns in the offseason with free agency signings. They brought in defensive tackles Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols to sure up the defensive line. The linebackers got a boost with the signing of Mack Wilson Sr. Finally, the secondary added corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is a solid piece when healthy. With all these moves, the Cardinals are hoping to put a more effective unit on the field this year.

Overall, the Cardinals made some splash improvements in the offseason. Will it be enough to start turning this team around? Given the fact that this team played hard for Jonathan Gannon last year, despite a losing effort would point towards yes. They would need to get off to a fast start in order to avoid losing hope from so much losing. However, they have a brutal schedule to start the season with matchups against the Bills, Rams, and Lions in the first three weeks. Things could get ugly for this team very early on and when things get ugly, not a lot of winning follows. This team will not win 8 games or more.

Bet – Under 7.5 (-152)

Seattle Seahawks – 7.5

• Head Coach – Mike Macdonald
• OC – Ryan Grubb
• DC – Aden Durde
• 2023 Record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 15th Easiest

2023 saw the end of the Pete Carrol era in Seattle. After 14 years of consistency at the head coach spot, the Seahawks made the decision to move the organization in a different direction (some may say a youth movement) and bring in Baltimore’s defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as the new head coach. He has brought in his own coaching staff and will be working to build on the Carroll era. He inherits a talented roster and will be working to put his own stamp on this franchise.

The Seattle offense took a step back last year after solid 2022 season. They ranked 17th in the league with 21.4 points per game. Geno Smith saw a decrease in his production in both yards and touchdowns. He also missed a few games due to injuries which would explain the downturn. We will see how Geno responds to a new offense. He will have the same trio of wide receivers with D.K Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all returning. The front office also brought back tight end Noah Fant on a two-year deal. He will most likely assume the top tight end spot with the release of Will Dissly in the offseason. The consistency of quarterback and receivers are a vital part to the success of any offense. They will know how to play and communicate with one another as they are adapting to a new offense. Another piece of continuity is the running game. They have two running backs in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet who will provide a 1-2 punch coming out of the backfield. If the offense can pick up their new system and Geno can remain healthy, this unit can be explosive and return to their 2022 form.

The defense is the question mark of this team. They have talent all around the roster yet, they were 25th in the league in points allowed per game with 23.6. You would think that bringing in a defensive minded head coach will address this issue. If he can bring any of the Baltimore defensive success with him, this team is going to be tough to score points on. They resigned big defensive lineman, Leonard Williams, to clog up the middle. They signed linebackers Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson to help replace the void left by Seattle legend Bobby Wagner. The secondary, will be their strength, which is especially important in a league that is so focused on passing the ball. Corner Riq Woolen is looking to bounce back after a sophomore slump. He made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year but struggled to replicate that success in his second year. Second year corner, Devon Witherspoon, made plenty of splash plays last year and will continue to build on a solid rookie year. Safety Julian Love just signed a 3-year extension and brings his versatility, leadership, and intelligence to the table. With Mcdonalds track record of success in Baltimore, particularly with the secondary and linebackers, he has the opportunity to turn this defense into a top 5 defense.

It is always hard to predict how a new coach will affect the success of a team. They go from a coordinator, where they focus more on the x’ and o’ to having to successfully run an entire organization. The hiring of Mcdonald signaled that the Seattle front office was looking for a defensive minded coach to bring back the Seattle defense back to the glory days. At the very least, we should see improvement from one of the more inconsistent defense last year. A more consistent defense paired with a balanced yet potentially explosive offense, is the recipe for winning a lot of games. Given that they had a middle of the road schedule in terms of difficulty, this team should be able to overperform against heir expected win total.

Bet – Over 7.5(-144)

San Francisco 49ers – 11.5

• Head Coach/OC – Kyle Shanahan
• DC – Nick Sorensen
• 2023 Record – 12-5
• Strength of Schedule – 18th Easiest

The 2023 season ended in heartbreak for the 49ers. They were consistently one of the top teams throughout the season. They ranked 3rd in both points scored and points allowed. Starting 5-0 before losing their first game. They had a 3 game slide where they were working on getting healthy. The Brock Purdy debate got loud as they headed into their week 9 bye week. Then they got healthy and finished their final 9 games with a 7-2 record putting them at 12-5 for the year. They ultimately lost in double OT thriller of a Super Bowl to the Chiefs. This team has been knocking on the doors of a championship for years now. It is a testament to the players in the locker room and the leadership of the coaching staff that they have not lost motivation or let it affect their morale. I believe that we can expect the same as we head into 2024.

The offense for the 49ers averaged 28.9 points per game in 2023. With Kyle Shannahans offensive scheme and play calling, this team is straight up scary. They have players with versatility to play several positions which allows for seemingly unlimited play calling. Running back Christian McCaffery and receiver Deebo Samuel are interchangeable in this offense. Once they get the ball in their hands, it is close to impossible to tackle them. You have Brandon Aiyuk (contract situation pending) on the outside who can burn a defense and also throw blocks downfield for the running game. Tight end George Kittle has shown that he will do whatever it takes to help the team. Whether he is blocking for the entire game or having 3 td receiving games, he is happy as long as the team wins. It is all set up by their offensive line, who is led by Trent Williams. Williams is in the conversation for the best football player on this team (and by extension the league) which is an incredible statement. They get him in the open field like a fullback/tight end to terrorize opposing defenses. The scary part? All of these guys are back. Even if something happens with Brandon Aiyuk, they drafted rookie Rickey Pearsall to pair with Juan Jennings for some depth. Quarterback Brock Purdy is entering his 3rd year and all he does is win. There will be conversations about him being in the conversation for best QB in the league but that is not relevant to the win total for the season. Look at his track record of success and you know that you can count on Purdy to execute this offense at a high rate. With all these pieces returning, we will see more of the same from this team.

It is hard to imagine the 49ers defense improving on their 2023 season, but they are poised to do just that with some of their offseason signings. They signed edge rusher Leonard Floyd to pair with Nick Bosa to get after the quarterback. they traded for defensive tackle, Maliek Collins, to replace Arik Armstead. He will work alongside Javon Hargraves to sure up the middle of the line. He will be competition for snaps against another one of their additions in Jordan Elliot, who was signed from the Browns. The 9ers also added talent and depth to their linebackers group. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw welcome De’vondre Campbell to their ranks. With Greenlaw coming back from an Achilles tear, Campbell will have the opportunity to make the most of his 1 year prove-it deal. They added some depth to their secondary by adding corners Isaac Yiadom and Rock Ya-Sin. The biggest change for this unit was the coach. Steve Wilks was fired after the Super Bowl loss. The speculation around the motivation for this move was rampant. However, it seems that Shannahan wanted more consistency from his DC. While they were dominant, this defense would occasionally make mistakes in key parts of the game. They elevated Nick Sorensen to the role so we will see how the roster responds to the coaching change. They are very talented across the board and hold themselves to very high standard. There should not be a drop off with this internal promotion.

The 49ers will have to battle the Super Bowl runner up hangover. It is not the first time that they are looking to bounce back from a loss in the big game. When they last lost the Super Bowl, then responded with a 6-10 season. However, that was the year that they lost Jimmy G as their starter. And the roster was not as strong as it currently is. With the strong leadership of Shannahan and the returning talent across the board, this team is going to be back on the quest for that ring. That begins by a return to dominance in the regular season. Winning 12 games is a tall order. Shanahan has accomplished 12 or more wins in 3 of his 7 years as the head coach. 2 of those 3 years have occurred in the past 3 years. This team is going to hit the over for their win total this year.

Bet – Over – 11.5(+126)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis