Indianapolis Colts – 8.5

• Head Coach – Shane Steichen
• OC – Jim Bob Cooter
• DC – Gus Bradley
• 2023 Record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 7th Easiest

The Shane Steichen era saw an immediate improvement from the previous regime. Steichen took over a team that was in turmoil. They went 4-12-1, fired their head coach, and hired Jeff Saturday as the interim. They have had a revolving door of aging QBs coming in to be a bridge player. The most recent being Matt Ryan, who retired. Their best offensive weapon, Jonathan Taylor, was holding out and looked like he was not going to play for Indy anymore. There were players being suspended for betting against the Colts. It was a dumpster fire. Steichen walked in and began to turn everything around. They drafted Quarterback Anthony Richardson, got Taylor signed, and returned the Colts to a winning record. If all that was not enough to show his leadership, he did so with Gardner Minshew as his quarterback.

2024 will be the year for Richardson to prove that he can stay healthy. He played in 4 games last year. He did not finish any of them. Gardner Minshew came in a relief effort in those 4 games and then took over for the remaining 13 games. Despite a backup quarterback, the offense scored 23.3 points per game which was 10th in the league. With Richardson back at the helm, the team has a dynamic playmaker that they were missing throughout the season last year. If he goes down again, they signed vet Joe Flacco after his magical run with the Browns. Running back Jonathan Taylor will be back and is poised to play a major role in this offense. He and Richardson will give opposing defenses problems as they both have to ability to run all over the field. Another big move in the offseason for the Colts was securing wide receiver, Michael Pittman, for the foreseeable future. He will be Richardsons main target and will be hoping to live up to his new contract. In summary, this offense has the ability to be better than last years. It all depends on Richardsons ability to stay healthy.

On the other side of the ball, there is work to be done. The 2023 Colts defense was one of the worst when it came to points allowed. they ranked 28th with 24.4 points allowed per game. While defenses are not necessarily going to win a lot of games, they can certainly lose games and that is what the Colts are looking to avoid this year. To address this issue, they drafted the first defensive player of the draft by selecting Laiatu Latu 15th overall. As General manager Chris Ballard was heard saying on draft night, they “got the best defensive player in the draft”. Adding Latu to a line that already has DeForest Bucker and Kwity Paye gives the line some depth and will be a scary group to go up against. In the linebackers group, the Colts resigned another one of their guys by bringing back Zaire Franklin, who is a tacking machine. He has had over 100 solo tackles in the past 2 seasons. The question for this unit is going to be the secondary. They have a star in cornerback Kenny Moore at nickel. They resigned Safety Julian Blackmon to add some continuity. Past those guys, this secondary is going to be heavily targeted. Hopefully defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will be able to scheme up their success.

With Steichen’s leadership and the return of Anthony Richardson, this team is going to be more dangerous than they were in his first year. The defense is going to be the lynchpin for the success of this team. However, given that they have one of the weaker schedules in the league, they should be able to at least stay in games long enough to give the offense a shot to win games. They do have a tough start to their year with games against the Texans and Packers. If they get off to a 2-0 start by stealing those games, they will be able to win 9-10 games this year.

Bet – Over 8.5 (+104)

Jacksonville Jaguars – 8.5

• Head Coach – Doug Pederson
• OC – Press Taylor
• DC – Ryan Nielsen
• 2023 Record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 14th Easiest

The 2023 Jags were lucky to get to 9-8. They started off with a 6-2 record but collapsed down the stretch and went 3-6. The breakout year that was expected for quarterback Trevor Lawrence never materialized. He appeared to be battling injuries throughout the course of the year. He will be back with a clean bill of health and a huge new contract this year. Coach Doug Pederson made a change to the defensive coordinator position in the offseason. It appears that Pederson was placing the blame of last years collapses on the defense. It will be up to new coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, to change the narrative of the defensive unit.

The offense will set the tone for this team. In 2023, they ranked 13th in points scored per game by putting up 22.2 points per game. Despite the inconsistency of Trevor Lawrence, the offense still has the potential to be explosive. There is no shortage of talent on the team. In the receivers room, they have Christian Kirk who took a step back last year after a 1000+ yard 2022 season. They signed free agent Gabe Davis from the Bills who is known for his big play ability. The Jags are hoping to have him be a more consistent piece of their offense than he was up in Buffalo. They also drafted rookie, Brian Thomas Jr., out of LSU in this years draft. He will add some youth and his big play ability to this offense as well. In addition to that trio of receivers, they also have tight end Evan Engram coming off of his best year, where he put up 963 yards and 4 touchdowns. With plenty of targets in the passing game, this Jags offense should be able to move the ball down the field with ease. To balance out their attack, they have an explosive running back in Travis Etinenne. He has put up 1000 yards rushing in each of his first 2 years. He can also catch balls out of the backfield. This team will have plenty of firepower to keep up with most teams in the NFL. It will be up to their quarterback to play more consistently.

The defense was the pariah last year. They ranked 17th in the league with 21.8 points allowed per game. However, they were a major reason for the late year collapse. They allowed 30+ points in 4 out of the last 9 games. As previously mentioned, they will have a new shot caller on defense. On the field, they added defensive end Arik Armstead to pair with Josh Allen-Hines. They still have former number one overall pick, Travon Walker who has shown some flashes. This team will be able to get after the qb. However, past that, they do not have many big name on this defense and will have to rely upon the talented front four to carry the squad.

Looking at the schedule for the Jags, it is tough to pick out the wins and losses because we do not know what Trevor Lawrence is going to do. When the QB play is uncertain, I tend to lean on the coaching staff. There have only been 2 seasons where a Doug Pederson led team has not won 9 or more games. Those were his first and last season with the Eagles. Since coming to Jacksonville, the team has gone 9-8 in each season. I believe that we can expect more of the same from this team.

Bet – Over 8.5 (-115)

Tennessee Titans – 6.5

• Head Coach – Brian Callahan
• OC – Nick Holz
• DC – Dennard Wilson
• 2023 Record – 6-11
• Strength of Schedule – 27th Easiest

Ownership for the Titans made a shocking move in the offseason by firing Head Coach Mike Vrabel after a 6-11 season. They bring in first time head coach Brian Callahan to put his stamp on the team. A cool storyline with Callahan is that his dad, Bill Callahan, left his previous role to join his son’s staff as the offensive line coach. Brian come over to the team after being the offensive coordinator for the Bengals since 2019. He will have the opportunity with a retooled offense and a young quarterback to prove his offensive prowess. Coming off such a long run and only really having success once Joe Burrow arrived or was healthy, it is clear to see that Callahan’s ability to work with Will Levis will be paramount to success.

The offense for the Titans struggled to score in 2023. They were 27th in the league with 17.9 points per game. they made the switch from Ryan Tannehill to Will Levis midway through the season and it did not yield much better results in terms of wins. There was enough to see why Levis was drafted as a potential starter. He showed flashes of explosive playmaking but was wildly inconsistent. However, Callahan brings over an offensive system that is going to shift from a run heavy focus to a pass first offense. With running back Derrick Henry leaving, this will be a completely new offense. They added to the wide receiver’s room by signing Clavin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. They join Deandre Hopkins as the top three targets for Levis. They added running back Tony Pollard to pair with Tyjae Spears out of the backfield. With Bill Callahan joining the staff, you can expect more consistent and improved offensive line play. they added talent in the draft on the line by taking JC Latham in the first round. All signs point to an improved offense in 2024. It all depends on whether or not Will Levis is a guy.

The defense has been a mainstay of this team under Vrabels rein. With him gone, it will be up to new defensive coordinator, Dennard Wilson, to lead this team. The secondary for this team got a boost by signing corner Chidobe Awuzie and trading for L’Jarius Sneed. These two present a very talented corner tandem. Add in safety Amani Hooker and newly signed Quandre Diggs, this Titans secondary has suddenly become a talented group. Complementing this secondary will be a defensive line led by Justin Simmons, who is one of the better defensive tackles in the league. This Titans defense will be difficult to move the ball on. Especially if Wilson is able to replicate the successes of the Ravens defensive system.

With a lot of change headed into 2024 for this team, it is difficult to predict how this new coaching staff is going to perform. Will Levis is still a question mark at quarterback. The schedule is one of the most difficult in the NFL. An already uphill battle of turning this team around will be made more difficult by that fact. I am thinking that this is a rebuilding year for the team, and we will most likely not see an immediate turnaround.

Bet – Under 6.5(-128)

Houston Texans – 9.5

• Head Coach – DeMeco Ryans
• OC – Bobby Slowik
• DC – Matt Burke
• 2023 Record – 10 -7
• Strength of Schedule – 26th Easiest

The success enjoyed by this team was easily one of the best storylines of the 2023 season. With a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud and rookie head coach, DeMeco Ryans, no one could have predicted a 10-7 record, and a playoff win for the Houston Texans. Not only was it a playoff win but they blew the Browns out at home. They ended up losing in the divisional round to the Ravens. However, with the coaching staff returning and some big offseason moves, there is a ton of optimism surrounding this team headed into 2024.

The Texans offense ranked 13th in points per game last year with 22.2 points per game. They had breakout performances all over the roster. Rookie receiver Tank Dell was unstoppable before he was injured. Nico Collins broke out with a 1200-yard season. At times, neither of those guys were available and Noah Brown stepped up and put up several 100-yard games. In short, the Bobby Slowick offense produced no matter who was the number one receiver. This was mainly due to have CJ Stroud. However, this offseason, they added another weapon to that receiver’s room by trading for Stefon Diggs. Diggs is a divisive figure in that he has the reputation of stirring the pot but when he is producing, he is one of the best in the game. Rounding out the receiving targets in tight end Dalton Schultz who had 635 yards and 5 tds last year. The running game was not up to par, so they went out and signed running back Joe Mixon. With the prospect of Stroud becoming even more comfortable in this offense and the addition of big weapons, this offense is poised to repeat their success of last year.

The defense last year raked 11th in points allowed with 20.8 points per game. They drafted rookie defensive end Will Anderson to rush the passer. They gave him a partner this offseason by signing vet Danielle Hunter. They also signed defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. The secondary is led by young corner Derek Stingley. They added veteran corner Desmond King to add some more experience to the unit. This defense, being led by Demeco Ryans, is going to continue to perform at a high level. Ryans has brought his success from the 49ers coordinating days and imprinted his culture on this defense and on this team.

The 2024 season for the Texans has lofty expectations. they were the breakout team last year and they have their sights set higher this year. However, they have one of the toughest schedules in the league. They ranked 26th in strength of expected schedule. There is always a chance at a sophomore slump. Looking a their opponents. it is tough to pick out 10 gimme wins. I would probably stay away from betting their win total but for sake of giving ananswer, I believe that this team will win their divsion but they will not win 10 games.

Bet – Under 9.5 (+118)