Atlanta Falcons – 9.5

• Head Coach – Raheem Morris
• OC – Zac Robinson
• DC – Jimmy Lake
• 2023 Record – 7-10
• Strength of Schedule – 1st Easiest

Following their 3rd 7-10 season under his leadership, the Falcons parted ways with Head Coach Arthur Smith. Smith was supposed to bring his offensive mind to the table, yet this was the area of the team that struggled the most. They have drafted offensive weapons in several recent drafts and received diminishing returns. The 2023 Falcons were the worst offensive team under Smith and ranked 26th in the league with 18.9 points per game. The Arthur Smith era saw inconsistent quarterback play and it cost Smith his job. The offseason saw a lot of change with new players and coaches coming into the building. After being in the conversation to hire Bill Belichick, the Falcons pivoted and hired Rams defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, to take the position. Morris has previous experience as a head coach. He spent 3 years in Tampa Bay where he had a combined 17-31 record. His most recent head coach experience was…. Atlanta. He took over as the interim head coach when Dan Quinn was fired in the 2020 season. He went 4-7 in that stint. Suffice to say, he has not the type of success that inspires much hope for a head coach. However, his players love playing for him. This Falcons roster is also much more talented than those Tampa Bay teams. It will be interesting to see what Morris does with his redemption shot.

Starting with the offense, the biggest offseason acquisition was quarterback Kirk Cousins, who once again secured a bag by signing here. He is an immediate upgrade at the position, even considering the fact that he suffered a season ending Achilles tear last year. In a surprising move in the draft, they added rookie Michael Penix with the 8th overall pick. Despite Cousins not being thrilled, it was clear that the Falcons were thinking about the future and wanted to avoid the QB limbo that teams find themselves in. The Ridder seasons have obviously had an impact on the team. Cousins comes into an offense with playmakers at each position but have yet to reach their potential. Second year Bijan Robinson showed his playmaking ability last year but was battling at times to get touches. He will be paired with Tyler Allgeier to make a two headed monster coming out of the backfield. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the coaching and quarterback change will be wide receiver Drake London. A former 1st round pick, he has been waiting for a breakout season. Arthur Smiths offense was more run heavy so London suffered from a lack of targets and from playing with Desmond Ridder as his quarterback. The Falcons got him some help as well by adding Rondale Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III to the receivers room. They’ll add some depth to the room that will present Cousins with a litany of targets. Not to even mention, Kyle Pitts who has potential to be one of the top young tight ends in the league. After a rookie season where he broke 1000 yards receiving, he barely cracked that over the past 2 years combined. He will have a better quarterback and something to prove this year. Look for a breakout year for him. All of these pieces in place would point to a much-improved Falcons offense. It will be up to them to put it together.

The defense was somewhat serviceable for the 2023 season. They ranked 18th in the league with 21.9 points per game allowed. They at least ranked higher than the offense did in points scored. Has the offense put up a few more points, this team would have won a few more games. With Raheem Morris’ defensive background, one would think that they will have a more improved defense. Morris hired defensive coordinator, Jimmy Lake, to run the defense. He was with Morris in Los Angeles as the assistant head coach under McVay. He has previous defensive coordinator experience at the collegiate level with his time at Washington. He is perhaps the biggest change on defense because there was not too many new additions in the offseason. They maintain a certain sense of continuity on this side of the ball. The defense is led by veteran pro bowl safety Jessie Bates. Other pieces include corner A.J Terrell and edge rusher Grady Jarrett. We will see how the switch to a 3-4 scheme under Lake will play out in 2024. If they can get to the quarterback more effectively and give their offense a chance to stay in the game, then the defense will have done their jobs.

Overall, a lot of change has come to the offense and the coaching staff for the Falcons. They took a big swing by bringing in Kirk to be their savior. He will be an improvement from previous years that included Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at QB. The fact that they play in one of the weakest divisions and have the easiest expected schedule would point towards the Falcons winning a lot of games. So many new faces also present their fair share of unknowns. I would lean towards them hitting their over just based on their easy schedule.

Bet – Over 9.5 (-154)

Carolina Panthers – 5.5

• Head Coach – Dave Canales
• OC – Brad Idzik
• DC – Ejiro Evero
• 2023 Record – 2-15
• Strength of Schedule – 10th Easiest

Organizational dysfunction. That is the phrase that comes to mind when I hear the Carolina Panthers. Owner David Tepper has had major success in the hedge fund world but has yet to figure out how to effectively run a sports team. Since he bought the team in 2018, he has gone through 6 head coaches and the team has had a record of 31-68. The most recent victim was Frank Reich who went 1-10 before getting fired. In all fairness to Reich, he should not have been fired. It was too soon after his time with the Colts came to an end. Tepper made a bad hire, plain and simple. As the 2024 season is set to kick off, the Panthers have yet another coaching staff that will need to have success in year 1 or they will be in danger of being next on the chopping block. Dave Canales comes over from division rival Tampa Bay to take the reins. His success with Baker Mayfield is expected by ownership to be replicated with second year quarterback Bryce Young.

The 2023 offense could not have been much worse. A roster devoid of talent paired with a rookie quarterback is often a recipe for disaster. And that is what the Panthers offensive output was. they ranked 31st in points scored only managing 13.9 points per game. Bryce Young had no shot behind his offensive line as he was sacked 62 times last yar. This was the 2nd most among quarterbacks. They addressed this issue by signing guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. These two big guys up front will hopefully stabilize the offensive line. They also made a depth signing at tackle with the signing of Yosh Nijman. The next step in helping Bryce Young out was to get some weapons. They addressed that need by trading for wide receiver Diontae Johnson. He brings some explosiveness that this offense was desperately needing. He joins vet Adam Thielen and second year player Jonathan Mingo. They also added internet sensation, Xavier Legette, in the draft. Pair these additions with a stable of running backs led by Chuba Hubbard, you should see an improved Panthers offense this year.

The defense was ranked 29th in points allowed in 2023 by allowing 24.5 points per game. Somehow with the coaching overhaul, defensive coordinator, Ejiro Evero, remained on staff. He lost a big defensive weapon in Brian Burns this offseason when Burns was traded to the Giants. To help replace this loss, they went on a shopping spree during free agency. They added defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson up front. They seemed to try and replace Burns with several linebackers as they added Jadeveon Clowney, Josey Jewell, and D.J Wonnum. All three of these guys are slated to start. They next addressed their secondary by signing corner Dane Jackson and safety Jordan Fuller. They will pair with Xavier Woods and Jaycee Horn in defending the pass. It appears that the Panthers went quantity over quality to fill several needs. However, all of these signings are older players and none of them are necessarily world beaters.

As long as Tepper is the owner of this team, it will not matter too much who the coach, general manager, or players are. The team is dysfunctional and has not proven to anyone that they are capable of winning games. This team is one of the teams that is being penciled in as a guarantee win on other team’s schedules. A schedule on the easier side would normally point towards winning more games however, this team will prove to be the exception.

Bet – Under 5.5 (+102)

New Orleans Saints – 7.5

• Head Coach – Dennis Allen
• OC – Klint Kubiak
• DC – Joe Woods
• 2023 Record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 5th Easiest

The 2023 Saints improved on Dennis Allen’s first season as head coach when he led them to a 7-10 record. They acquired quarterback, Derek Carr, in free agency and he provided a boost to the position. He brought toughness to the offense and showcased it by battling through several injuries and finishing the season by starting all 17 games. It wasn’t enough to get the Saints back to the playoffs as they ended up 2nd in the division and were on the outside looking in when the dance started. They’ll look to improve on that and make a playoff push. They will have to find a way to beat better teams if they want to compete. Last year, out of the 9 wins only 2 teams ended up with a winning record.

The 2024 offense will look roughly the same on the field. They lost veteran wide receiver, Michael Thomas but replaced him with former Cowboy and Dolphin Cedrick Wilson Jr. Wilson will be added to a young room consisting of Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed. The o-line remains roughly the same. The major change for this unit will be the play caller. Former offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael, was a holdover from the Sean Payton era. For the first time since 2009, the Saints will have new blood in the building with Klint Kubiak. Kubiak was the passing coordinator for the San Fransisco 49ers under Kyle Shannahan. Shannahan’s assistants are having success all over the league. It will be interesting to see if Kubiak brings the same type of offensive success to New Orleans that over have brought to places like Miami and Houston.

The defense is going to be the lynchpin for this team in 2024. They were 8th in points allowed by allowing 19.2 points per game last year but they are an aging group that struggles to get after the pass rusher. They ranked 28th in pass rush last year. In an attempt to address this issue and take some of the pressure off of Cameron Jordan, they brought in Chase Young on a prove-it deal. He will add some much-needed youth to this defense. They also added Willie Gay to a very thin linebacker corp. He will pair with Demario Davis to solidify the middle of this defense. In the secondary, they made some depth signings, but this unit is still led by corner Marshon Lattimore and Safety Tyrann Mathieu. Those two are still ballers but are definitely aging.

When looking at the Saints for 2024, it is hard to picture that this team will have much more success than last year. Judging by the fact that they essentially have the same roster and Dennis Allen as their head coach, we are probably looking at a similar season. They have the 5th easiest expected schedule this year, mainly due to the weak division that they play in. This is an 8 or 9 win team which puts them above their expected win total.

Bet – Over 7.5 (-122)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7.5

• Head Coach – Todd Bowles
• OC – Liam Coen
• DC – Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers
• 2023 Record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 11th Easiest

The second year of the Todd Bowles’ team saw the Buccaneers return to the playoffs and earned themselves a wild card round win over the Eagles. Many expected them to have a worse season given that Tom Brady retired. the preseason expected win total was 6.5. After a 3-5 start, it looked like they were headed that way. however, they turned it around down the stretch and finished the regular season with a 9-8 record. New quarterback in town, Baker Mayfield, took the reins and earned himself a new deal for his 2023 performance. There was not a lot of turnover on the roster so it will be up to the coaching staff to continue to build on the momentum of 2023.

The offenses main change will come from the play caller. 2023 offensive coordinator, Dave Caneles, left for the head job in Carolina. New OC, Liam Coen, inherits a talented roster with a solid quarterback in place. He brings experience as OC from the college ranks and one year as the Rams OC. He will work with Baker Mayfield to improve on 2023. Last year, this offense scored 20.5 points per game which was 20th in the NFL. With the talent on this offense, they should be able to improve that metric. Baker Mayfield will have another year with receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans is quietly the most consistent star receiver in the league. All he does is put up 1000-yard seasons. When healthy, Godwin is a baller and is essentially another number 1 for an offense. they added Jalen McMillan in the draft as a prospect to help grow this room. Out of the backfield, Rachaad White, had 1439 all-purpose yards. As a running threat and a receiving threat, White provides versatility to this offense and is a valuable weapon for the offense to use. Liam Coen will have the opportunity to prove his worth with this roster. If he can bring some of the McVay offense to this Bucs team, this offense will surely be able to step up its game to help further complement the defense.

The defense is always going to be the strong point of a Todd Bowles led team. Last year they ranked 7th in points allowed by allowing 19.1 points a game. Consistency and continuity on defense is vital to success over time. The Bucs are retiring most of their starters on defense. They had 2 key departures with linebacker Devin White going to the Eagles and Shaq Barrett signing with Miami before ultimately retiring. They were able to bring back Lavonte David who is the heart and soul of this defense. Additionally, they bolstered the secondary by bringing back safety, Jordan Whitehead, from the Jets. Up front, they have the same 3 starters returning, led by big man Vita Vea. As long as the young players are able to step up and fill the gaps left by White and Barrett, this defense will once again be the strong suit of this team.

Buoyed by a top 10 defense, the Bucs are looking to a new OC to improve their offense. If the new look offense can improve, even slightly, we will see an improvement from the Bucs as a whole. They do have the 11th easiest schedule which points to them being able to repeat the success of last year. They will have to tough out the first half of their season as they face teams like the Lions, Eagles, and Ravens in their first 7 games. IF they can go 4-3 in those games, they have an easier second half of their schedule where they will be able to make their playoff push. With that being said, I see this Bucs team winning more than 7 games.

Bet – Over 7.5 (-132)