Man, how quickly things can change. The Best Bets have gone ice cold. Week 3 has not been friendly to Black Dog Bets. The Best Bets are currently 0-4 this week. The Jamie Pick of The Week did not hit once again. We need a bounce back night to salvage this week. On the season as a whole, the Best Bets are 9-7 after a 5-1 start. Lucky for us, we have a double header for Monday Night Football with the Jaguars playing the Bills at 7:30 PM and then the Commanders vs the Bengals kicking off at 8:15 PM.

First things first, the Best Bets.

Best Bets

Ja’Marr Chase Rec Yards o79.5 (-110) FanDuel

Josh Allen Pass Yards o232.5 (-110) FanDuel

Best Bet Background– Ja’Marr Chase Rec Yards o79.5

Commanders @ Bengals

The 1-1 Commanders travel to Cincinnati to face the 0-2 Bengals. These two teams do have some recent history that has been in the Bengals favor. In the last 5 matchups, Cincy has been 3-1-1. The most recent matchup was a 20-9 Washington win in 2020.

The Commanders are coming off of a win against the Giants where they scored 7 field goals to secure the first win of the Dan Quinn era. This was a historic feat as the Giants were the first team to ever score 3 touchdowns, allow none, and still lose. In that game, the Commanders offense were able to move the ball down the field fairly easily but would falter every time they were in the redzone. Despite the outcome against the Giants, you won’t win many games if you can’t score touchdowns. The Washington offense is more successful on the ground as they currently rank 6 in rush yards averaging 176 yards a game. Their pass offense is a different story as they rank 19th averaging 185 yards a game. Their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, has yet to throw for a touchdown this year. His only touchdowns came on the ground in their week 1 matchup against the Bucs. Their run game, led by Brian Robinson Jr., may have some opportunities this week against a weak Bengals rush defense. The Cincy defense currently allows 159 rush yards a game which is 26th in the league. On the other hand, their pass defense is 2nd allowing 128 yards a game. This split could be attributed to the fact that they have not been ahead too much in their first two games, but I would still expect the Commanders to run the ball early on.

On the other side of the field, the 0-2 Bengals are once again off to a slow start. They were historically upset by the Patriots week 1 and then lost a close game to the Chiefs in week 2. Joe Burrow has not looked like himself when leading this pass attack that is managing only 200 yards a game. He is getting no help from his rushing offense who is currently 30th in the league averaging 72 yards a game. It is clear that this offense wants to pass the ball. The good news is that the Commander defense is not great against the pass. They are 22nd in the league in yards allowed through the air, allowing 227 yards per game. Another development that is good for the Bengals is that they get wide receiver, Tee Higgins, back from injury. This should open up the offense for Burrows favorite target, Ja’Marr Chase. Throughout his career with the Bengals, Chase is averaging 81.1 yards a game. He has had a slow start to this year as well. With the Bengals facing 0-3 and them facing a bad Commanders defense, Chase is poised for a big game. Look for him to break out and gain over 80 yards tonight against the Commies.

Best Bet Background– Josh Allen Pass Yds o232.5

Jaguars @ Bills

Jacksonville is 0-2 and looking to avoid 0-3 on the road against the Bills. The Bills are coming off a mini bye after winning last Thursday night against the Dolphins. their record is currently 0-2. The last 5 matchups between these two teams have gone in Jacksonvillles favor. They are 3-2 in the last 5 matchups. The last game that these two teams played was a 25-20 Jaguars win in 2023.

The Jaguars have been a tough team to pin down. They signed Trevor Lawrence to a huge contract in the offseason and he has been very underwhelming so far this season. With weapons all over the offense, you would expect the Jags to average more than 167 yards a game. This effort ranks them 25th in the league. On the ground, they are 15th with 127 yards per game. What is the most concerning for them is that they are averaging 15 points a game. They have struggled against the Browns and the Dolphins in their first two games. Neither of these defenses are as good as Buffalos has played so far. Buffalo is 12th in pass yards allowed and 18th against the rush. They are tied (with the Jags) for 8th in points allowed by allowing 19 points a game. The defense was losing players left and right against the Dolphins last week and they just continued to shut down their explosive offense. In order beat the Bills, they will need to put up points and allow their offense to flourish. I don’t see that happening because it is hard to trust Trevor Lawerence based on what we have seen so far. However, with them facing down 0-3 and their backs against the wall, this could be the week that the Jags put it together.

The Bills offense has drastically changed since last year. They are built to run the ball a bit more with their two tight end sets and using James Cook to run the ball. Josh Allen was able to orchestrate the Bills to a win by only throwing for 139 yards against the Dolphins. That was due in part to their effective run game and their defense forcing short fields by creating turnovers. You can’t always count on turnovers occurring. Also, the Jags defense is pretty stout against the rush, only allowing 103 yards a game so far, which puts them at 11th in the league. The real weakness of this Jags defense is their pass game. They are allowing 245 yards a game so far which is 30th in the league. The Bills will most likely struggle to get the ball moving on the ground so they will have to rely upon the pass, which they are more than capable of doing. Additionally, if this game follows the rest of the week 3 trends for underdogs, then the Bills will be behind and having to pass the ball more to remain in the game. I think we see the passing Josh Allen come back and will put up over 233 yards through the air.