Week 4 Sunday Matchups

Another tough Thursday for the Black Dog Best Bet. Devin Singletary did not have the type of game that was expected against the Cowboys. The Giants were unable to run the ball at all against a weak Cowboys defense. So we got back in the lab and took a dive into the week 4 Sunday Slate.

To start, I’ll highlight the best value bets that I can find. I’ve gone through the slate and picked three Best Bets and provided some background on each. I have put together a parlay for the day as well. Let’s make some money.

Best Bets

Nico Collins Rec Yards over 82.5 (-110) FanDuel
Aaron Jones Rush Yards over 59.5 (-110) FanDuel
Josh Allen Pass Yards over 231.5 (-110) FanDuel

Best Bet Background- Nico Collins Rec Yards o82.5

Nico Collins has solidified his standing as the number 1 target for CJ Stroud. IN this young season, all 3 games that he has played, he has put up over 85 yards. The lowest was against the stingy Brian Flores defense last week, where he was only allowed to gain 86 yards. In the two previous weeks, he was targeted a total of 18 times, recorded 14 receptions for 252 yards, and recorded 1 touchdown. He is the Houston deep ball threat and their homerun hitter. The arrival of Stefon Diggs has not hampered his production so far. Additionally, Tank Dell is out this week. That will open up the target share for Nico as he faces this Jaguars defense. The Jaguars defense is currently ranked 30th against the pass. They got carved up by Josh Allen last week for over 200 yards in the first half alone. They are strong against the run so teams have had to throw the ball against them. Add in the fact that Joe Mixon is out this week for the Texans, you can bet that they will air it out against their AFC South rival. Expect Nico to have a big day against the Jags.

Best Bet Background- Aaron Jones Rush Yards o59.5

The Aaron Jones revenge game is here. Ever since signing with the Vikings in free agency, Packers fans knew that they would have to see number 33 play come back to Green Bay to face his former team. He is coming in on the hottest team in football at the moment, running the rock for the 3-0 Vikings. So far this year, he has 42 rushes for 228 yds and 1 TD. That is an average of 76 yards per game. He will continue to be a focal point of this rushing attack in this game. Minnesota’s QB, Sam Darnold, is experiencing a career renaissance but is also dealing with an injury. The Vikings will have to rely upon the run if that injury is hindering his ability to operate this offense. If they are not hindered by the injury, then Jones will still have ample opportunities because the Vikings have been playing ahead in all 3 of their games so far this season. They face an improved Packers defense who has let up big games to running backs but is currently 10th in the league against the run. I think Aaron Jones is going to get the revenge boost here and find a way to have a big game against his former team.

Best Bet Background – Josh Allen Pass Yards o231.5

Josh Allen is coming off of his best passing game of the season. He completed 23 throws on 30 attempts for 264 yards and 4 touchdowns. Most of this was done in the first half. He faces a tougher opponent in the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Ravens are strong against the rush but have struggled against the pass game. In fact, they are 1st against rush yards allowed and 32nd aka dead last in pass yards allowed. Should that trend continue, Josh Allen is once again going to have to take over this game through the air. In the three games this year, he has gone over 232 yards twice. In his career he is averaging 240.6 yards a game. In primetime against Baltimore this week, Josh Allen will have to throw the ball to move down the field. This should be a close game so I do not think that there should be any worry that he won’t be passing for a majority of the game. Allen should be able to put up over 232 yards again this week.

Parlay

Odds: +305