Week 5 kicks off with an NFC South matchup between the Falcons and the Buccaneers. We are keeping our Best Bets percentage above 60%. Our last two Thursday Best Bets have not hit. We change that tonight. I’ve done the research to choose the bet to get our Thursday picks back on track. I’ll lay out the extensive history behind the matchup of these two NFC South rivals. FanDuel is also offering a no sweat parlay for tonight so I will give you all a parlay for tonight with some background.

First things first, the pick:

Best Bet

Darnell Mooney Receiving yards o46.5 (-110) FanDuel

Background – Buccaneers (+1.5) @ Falcons(-1.5)

The rivalry between these two teams has been about even as it can possibly be. The overall record is 31-30 in Tampa Bays favor. In recent history, they tend to split the 2 games that they play against one another. The current odds for the game lines indicate that this is a pick em. The Bucs are a 1.5-point underdog in this game. Given the back-and-forth nature of this matchup and the fact that the books are split on how this game will play out, I am staying away from the game picks.

The Bucs are coming into this game with a 3-1 record. They are ranked 9th in the NFL in points scored by averaging 19.5 points per game. The strength of their offense is their pass game. They rank 9th in pass yards as well. Baker Mayfield is leading the team down the field by averaging 246 yards a game. He has 2 great receiving targets in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Godwin is this team’s leading receiver so far posting a stat line of 27 catches for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evans is not far behind with 18 catches for 214 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evans popped up on the injury report this week with a knee injury so look to Godwin to be the main receiver tonight. The weakness of this game has been their run game which ranks 25th in yards gained. the backfield is split between Bucky Irving and Rashaad White. Despite White getting the lion’s share of the carries, Irving is actually outgaining White on the ground. Irving is averaging 5.8 yards per carry while White is only averaging 2.8 yards a carry. The Bucs face a Falcons defense that is better against the pass, ranked 13th allowing 191 yards a game, than they are against the run where they are 25th allowing 145 yards a game. We have a matchup of strength against strength and weakness against weakness. If the Bucs are ever going to establish themselves on the run, it would be tonight. However, their offense is clearly built to move the ball through the air.

The Falcons are 2-2 and coming off a roller coaster win against the Saints where they won on a last second field goal (shout out to Jamie’s pick of the week). Their offense, much like the Bucs, is built to pass the ball. Despite having Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier coming out the backfield, the Falcons are only ranked 22nd in rush yards a game. They are averaging 102 yards a game on the run. Through the air, they are slightly better by averaging 206 yards a game which puts them at 17th in the league. Kirk Cousins is spreading the ball around to his 3 wide receivers Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III. They have similar target shares with them totaling 31, 24, and 22 targets respectively. Despite London being the top target, Mooney is actually leading the team in receiving yards per game by averaging 56.3 yards a game. They face a Bucs defense that is 16th in the league in pass yards allowed. the run defense would be the weakness of this team as they are ranked 22nd and averaging 131 yards allowed on the ground. Since the Falcons struggle to run the ball, I am anticipating them to come out of the gates passing the ball. Given that he is averaging 3.75 receptions and 56.3 yards a game, I believe Darnell Mooney is the Best Bet for tonight. He is not only heavily involved in the pass game, but he is also the homerun threat for this pass game. His longest reception this year was a 41-yard catch against the Eagles. His line is at 46.5 yards for tonight. He has gained over 50 yards in the past 3 games. The only game he did not was against the Steelers. The Steelers defense ranks amongst the best in the NFL, and they wreaked havoc on this Falcons offense.

TNF Parly Odds: +797(No Sweat FanDuel)

• Mike Evans anytime TD
• Chris Godwin 50+ Rec Yds
• Baker Mayfield o9.5 Rush Yds
• Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rush Yds