Its week 7 and we are once again coming off of a 4-2 betting week. I wanted the sweep up hitting 66% of the Best Bets is only good for getting our winning percentage up. On the season, the Best Bets stand at 22-14. That puts us at 61% on the season. This week kicks off with a game that was honestly tough to find a bet that I was confident about. The Saints and the Broncos are trotting out rookie quarterbacks on teams that struggle to put up many points. We’ll go through the matchup and give some background on the Best Bet that we have picked. Given the tough slate for tonight, there will be no parlay.

First things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards o45.5 (-110) FanDuel

Broncos @ Saints

So far this year, there have been pretty decent matchups on Thursday night. There is not too much excitement going into this game. Especially from a betting perspective. The 2-4 Saints are dealing with so many injuries on offense, that you cannot truly count on production from any of their players. The Broncos have one of the more inconsistent offenses in the league which does not inspire confidence from a betting standpoint.

The 3-3 Broncos fly into New Orleans where Sean Payton will face his former team for the first time. He is in his second year as the Broncos head coach and has his team pulling out gritty wins so far. He hand-picked his rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, from the draft and has been working on molding him into a top tier qb. So far, the body of work has shown that they still have a ways to go. Their defense has been winning games for them, not only by holding the opposing teams to low point totals but by actually scoring themselves.

The Broncos offense is scoring 18.7 points a game which is 25th in the league. They have been struggling to score consistently. They have failed to score over 20 points in 3 games. They did put up 34 against the Raiders. Looking at their yardage on offense, it is clear to see that they struggle to move the ball as well. They average 170 pass yards a game, which is 27th in the NFL and 107 yards on the ground, which is 23rd in the league. Bo Nix has had his fair share of rookie struggles so far but it looks like Payton is letting him throw the ball down the field more as the season progresses. He will be without his one of his main targets in Josh Reynolds. They have a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that has been struggling in all phases.

Conversely, the Broncos defense is one of the best in the NFL. They are 4th in points allowed by letting up 16 points a game. They excel against the pass ranking 5th in yards allowed through the air. They will be without their superstar corner, Pat Surtain II, tonight so we will see if that continues. Against the run, they are allowing 114 yards a game which is good enough to put them 14th in the league. They are going against a struggling and injured Saints offense that is led by a rookie QB making his second career start. I would be surprised if this Vance Joseph coached defense doesn’t have a field day tonight.

The Saints offense started off the season with some impressive scores, but injuries have ravished this roster. They are coming into this game without starting Quarterback Derek Carr and their top two wide receivers, Rasheed Shaheed and Chris Olave. Their other receivers, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson, appeared on the injury report this week as well. They have injuries on their offensive line as well. Prio to these injuries, the Saints offense had hit a wall. While they rank 5th in points scored per game, these numbers are heavily skewed due to their first two weeks. They are currently 21st in pass yards per game and 13th in rush yards per game. They face a tough defense tonight and it is hard to imagine them getting back on track.

The Saints’ defense has truly been a weakness for this team. They are allowing 24.5 points per game which is 23rd in the NFL. They are 29th against the pass, allowing 262 yards per game, and are 20th against the run by allowing 133 yards a game. Essentially, teams have been able to move the ball any way that they want against this defense. This unit has not been able to live up to preseason expectations and have been struggling. This week, they do have the chance to get back on track against the Broncos offense, but it is unlikely that they will turn the ship around.

Best Bet Background

Given the Saints’ inability to defend against the pass, I am betting on Bo Nix’s favorite target, Courtland Sutton, to have a good night. His line is 45.5 yards. His career average is 52 yards a game. He is averaging 46 yards a game this year. This week, Josh Reynolds is injured, which would imply a bigger role for Sutton. He already leads the team in targets (47) receptions (21) and yards (277). This will continue tonight against a very bad Saints defense that struggles to defense against the pass. A couple of weeks ago, they let Juju Smith-Schuster tear them up for 130 yards. I think that Sutton will be able to have similar success tonight. At the very least, he should be able to put up over 46 yards.