Week 9 Thursday Matchup

We have reached what is essentially the midway point of the season. Through 8 weeks, we have been winning more bets than we have lost, which is exactly where we want to be. Generally speaking, I make sure to choose bets that are -110 odds. With those odds, we have to make sure that we win 52.4% of our bets to ensure that we are beating the books. Halfway through the regular season, our Best Bets are 28-21 which comes out to 57.14%. My personal goal is to keep that winning percentage at 60% and would love to stretch it to 65%. Which means that we have some work to do. No better time than the present to begin. We have a Thursday Night matchup between the Houston Texan and the New York Jets. Below, you will find our Best Bet for the night, an analysis of the matchups between the teams, and a no sweat parlay pick for the game.

First things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards o81.5 (-110) FanDuel

Texans @ Jets

The 6-2 Texans travel to New York to take on the 2-6 Jets. The Texans come into this game as the underdog and is being given 1.5 points. This is pretty surprising considering everything that has been happening with the Jets this year. You can get the Texans mL on FanDuel at +110. In all honesty, I am not quite sure why this is the line. The Jets have been in operational disarray and are coming off of a bad loss to the Patriots. The Texans are coming into this game with some significant injuries to their offensive weapons but are anchored by a solid defense. They have found ways to win games in tight situations. They are 5-1 in 1 score games and have had 1 blowout win and 1 blowout loss so far this year. That blowout win was against the Patriots, who the Jets just lost to. There isn’t a ton of matchup history between these two teams. They have only played each other 10 times with New York holding a 7-3 series lead. However, in the last 5 matchups, the Texans are 3-2 against the Jets.

The Jets on offense have been incredibly underwhelming. They have done everything they can to get a spark, but the offensive output has not been there. They struggle to score, only managing 18.8 points per game which is 25th in the league. With the number of weapons on this offense, you would expect them to be able to move the ball. However, they struggle to run the ball effectively. They are 30th in the league in rushing yards per game. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen should be a good running back tandem, but they struggle to sustain success. Through the air, they are a bit better as they rank 13th by averaging 224 yards per game. With Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard, Aaron Rodgers has no shortage of people to throw the ball to. They need to either figure it out tonight or their season is pretty much over.

The Jets defense has been their strength for the past several years. However, ever since Robert Saleh was fired a couple weeks ago, they are struggling. They went from allowing 17 points per game to averaging around 28 points per game. They do limit the pass yards. They are 2nd in the league in pass yards allowed by allowing 161 yards per game. With the Texans missing their top weapons, this matchup heavily favors the Jets tonight. The weak point of the Jets defense is the rush defense. They rank 17th by allowing 125 yards per game. They have a tough matchup with Joe Mixon who has been running the ball very well this season. With Mixon poised to be a focal point for tonight, the Jets need to shut him down if they want to stand a chance.

The Texans have some serious injury issues on their offense. They are missing their top two wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. Tank Dell will be CJ Strouds number 1 for the first time since last year. He faces a stingy Jets pass defense. The Texans offense as a whole has been fairly solid. They have been averaging 23.5 points per game which is 14th in the league. Their passing attack has been a top ten attack, even with Nico missing several games. They rank 8th and are averaging 232 yards per game. Offseason addition, Joe Mixon, has put his stamp on this offense. They struggled to run the ball last year. This year, they have shown improvement as they are averaging 118 yards per game. That ranks them 18th in the league. When healthy, Mixon has been on a tear this year. He faces a Jets defense that struggles against the run. The Houston offensive line has been struggling this year and they face a Jets defensive line that likes to get after the quarterback.

On defense, the Texans are allowing 22.4 points per game, which puts them at 15th in the league. They are right behind the Jets in pass yards allowed at 3rd in the league. They are allowing 164 yards per game. They are slightly worse against the rush where they rank 13th in the league allowing 116 yards per game. The Texans have stars on this defense. Will Anderson Jr. is currently in the defensive player of the year conversation. Stingley is one of the best corners in the league. Head Coach Demeco Ryans has his defense laying well enough to give his team a chance to win in every game. This should be another good matchup for the Texans defense as they face off against the struggling Jets offense.

Best Bet Background – Joe Mixon Rushing Yards o81.5

Mixon has been a beast for the Texans this year. In the four full games that he has played this year, he has gone over 100 yards on the ground each time. With the Texans missing their wide receivers, the Texans are going to have to rely heavily on Mixon tonight. The Jets are weak against the run. They have let up over 100 yards rushing in all 3 of the games coached by Jeff Ulbrich. Earlier this year, against the 49ers and Titans, they allowed 180 and 130 on the ground respectively. In short, against they struggle against teams that can run the ball. The Texans are going to have to run the ball tonight. Mixon is poised for a heavy workload and a big night on the ground.