Week 10 Thursday Best Bet

Week 10 kicks off with a great Thursday Night Matchup between the Ravens and the Bengals. After a few not great matchups, this AFC North matchup is poised to be a great game. From a betting perspective, we are coming off of a 3-3 Best Bets week. We had a couple of tough games, but we are wiping the slate clean with this week. The quest for 60% continues tonight. Below, I have some background on the matchup and a Best Bet for the game. I am excited for a great night of ball and a great week 10.

First things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Lamar Jackson Pass Yards o238.5 (-110) FanDuel

Bengals @ Ravens

A 4-5 Bengals squad is travelling to Baltimore to take on the 6-3 Ravens. The Bengals are starting to heat up after a slow start to the season. After starting 1-4, they have won 3 of their last 4 games. Meanwhile, the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league so far. They are clicking on all cylinders and are coming off of a blowout win against the Broncos. These teams have plenty of history between the two of them. The Ravens lead the all-time matchup with a record of 31-27. Over the last 5 matchups, the Ravens are 3-2. The most recent game was earlier this year in a high scoring shootout where the Ravens won 41-38 in OT. This game tonight has the potential to match the excitement of that game.

The Bengals offense is the main reason that the team has begun to win some games. They are starting to look like the Bengals offense that everyone has come to expect with Joe Burrow leading the offense. Tonight, he will be without one of his main targets in Tee Higgins. As a whole, the offense ranks 7th in points scored by averaging 26.2 points per game. They move the ball primarily through the air and are ranked 7th in the league, averaging 236 yards per game. They struggle to run the ball as they are averaging 94 yards per game, which is 27th in the league. Against a Ravens defense that excels against the run and struggles against the pass, expect the Bengals to toss the ball around the yard tonight.

The Bengals defense has a tough challenge ahead of them tonight. The Ravens offense is one of the best in the league. The Bengals have been allowing 25.2 points per game, which is 25th in the league. They allow 212 pass yards per game which ranks them 17th and 130 rush yards per game, which is 18th in the league. They will have their hands full all night against this Ravens offense.

The Ravens offense is averaging 31.4 points per game. That is the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league. They can move the ball any way that they want. Lamar Jackson is having a MVP caliber season He will beat you with his arm and/or his legs. He has several wide receivers and tight ends that he can spread the ball around to. The pass game is averaging 254 yards per game which is 3rd in the league. When they are not passing it, they are able to lean on the top ranked run offense in the league. With the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, this offense is averaging 191 yards per game. The numbers for this offense are unreal. It will be fun to watch them go against this Bengals defense tonight.

One potential explanation for the astronomical numbers by this offense, is the fact that the defense has been struggling to close out games. They allow teams to stay in the mix which means that the offense needs to continue to produce. They are allowing 24.3 points per game which is 23rd in the league. Since they are typically up on teams, their opponents have to pass the ball to keep in the game. As a result, the Ravens are allowing 280 pass yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. Conversely, they are not letting teams run on them at all. They are the best rush defense in the league and are only allowing 75 yards per game. This matchup does favor what the Bengals like to do on offense. However, knowing that the Bengals are going to be passing the ball might play into the gameplan. Either way, I am expecting a lot of yards and a lot of points tonight.

Best Bet Background – Lamar Jackson Pass Yards o238.5

As mentioned above, Lamar has been playing at an MVP caliber level. He is averaging 264.3 pass yards per game and is still a threat to run at will. He has already achieved over 238.5 yards in 7 out of the 9 games that he has played this year. In his first game against the Bengals this year, he went 26/42 for 348 yards, 4 TDs through the air and added 55 yards on the ground. I expect a similar type of game from both teams tonight. Lamar should be able to pass for over 239 yards fairly easily tonight.