Week 11 Monday Matchup and Best Bet

Once again, the Best Bets went 2-2 yesterday and our Best Bets currently stand at 3-2 for the week. Tonight gives us the chance to get ahead of the 60% curve for the week. Tonight, we have a Monday Night Football game between the Cowboys and the Texans in the battle for Texas. I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think will hit. I also threw together a MNF Parlay. Let’s make this money.

Best Bet

Nico Collins Receiving Yards o74.5 (-110) FanDuel

Texans @ Cowboys

The 6-4 Texans are traveling down the road to Dallas to take on the 3-6 Cowboys. These teams are both battling to stay in the playoff mix. Dallas lost their starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, to injury and are starting Cooper Rush for the second straight week. Their season has not gone as expected as they are off to the worst start in the Mike McCarthy era. The Texans are getting their star receiver, Nico Collins, back from injury. The Texans have had their fair share of struggles this year but have figured out a way to win 6 games. Despite these teams being geographically close, they have only played each other 6 times. Dallas leads the all-time series 4-2. The most recent game was a 27-23 Dallas victory in 2022. It should be an interesting matchup between these two squads tonight.

The Texans offense has not necessarily lived up to the preseason hype this year. Some of that has been due to injury but the main cause for concern has been their offensive line. They have allowed 35 sacks which is the 3rd most in the NFL. Protecting CJ Stroud has clearly been an issue. If there was a path to victory for the Cowboys, it would be paved by getting after Stroud. The Texans offense gets a huge boost with Nico Collins coming back from injury. Their pass offense has been struggling yet they are 15th in the league averaging 218 yards per game. Teh addition of Joe Mixon in the offseason has been a boost to their run game but they are still ranked only 18th averaging 119 yards per game. They are facing a Dallas defense that has been struggling so if there was a game to turn around this 2-game slide, it would be tonight.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans are again not exactly living up to expectations. They are allowing 22.6 points per game, which is 19th in the league. That is not reflected in the stats regarding yards. They are 4th against the pass, allowing 174 yards per game and 11th against the run, allowing 113 yards per game. They face a Dallas offense that struggles to run and will most likely struggle to pass with Cooper Rush at quarterback.

The Cowboys will need their backup quarterback to perform better than he did last week. Rush managed to gain only 46 pass yards against the Eagles. He was eventually benched for Trey Lance in the 4th quarter. As a whole, this Dallas offense is struggling to put points on the board. They are averaging 19.7 points per game, which is 23rd in the league. They have not been able to run the ball at all and are currently the 2nd worst rush offense in the NFL. They are only averaging 83 yards per game. Through the air, they are averaging 231 yards per game, which puts them at 10th, but most of those yards came from Dak in games where the Cowboys were trailing. They face an uphill battle tonight against the Texans defense.

Dallas’ defense is the worst that it has been in years. It is clearly suffering from their coordinator change from Dan Quinn to Mike Zimmer. They are letting up 28.8 points per game, which is 31st in the league. Teams have been able to move the ball pretty much at will against this team. They recently go Micah Parsons back from injury but that has not helped much. They are allowing 210 pass yards per game, which is 17th in the league. The run defense is the 2nd worst ranked defense in the NFL. They are allowing 152 rush yards per game. The way they play does not match up well against a Texans offense that just got one of its stars back. I would expect Micah Parsons to be disruptive but overall, I think the Texans offense will be too much for this Dallas defense.

Best Bet Background – Nico Collins Receiving Yards o74.5

Nico Collins is CJ Strouds favorite receiver. Before he went down with injury, he was averaging 6.4 receptions and 113.4 yards per game. This Dallas defense may cause some trouble up front against a weak offensive line but Stroud has shown time and time again that he can stay in the pocket and deliver deep shots to Nico. As the Texans look to get back to their winning ways, I expect Nico Collins to have a big night and should return to his usual form against a struggling Dallas defense.