Week 12 kicks off with a great Thursday Night Matchup between the Browns and Steelers. We have been on a hot streak with our Thursday Best Bets. Tonight, we will keep it going as we tune in for the Thursday Night Matchup. It appears that we are buckling up for a low scoring and rainy affair. I have outlined some key stats for this matchup and picked the Best Bet for tonight. Let’s make some money!

First things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Steelers -3.5 (-102) FanDuel

Steelers @ Browns

The 8-2 Steelers travel to Cleveland to face one of their division opponents. They are going against the 2-8 Browns in a game that many Steelers fans fear may be a trap game. Based on how these two teams have been playing this year, it is hard to imagine that the Steelers drop this game. However, division games are always tougher than the general public anticipates. The weather is also going to be a major factor tonight. The forecast is calling for it to be cold, windy, and rainy. That points towards a low scoring affair with not a lot of passing. Long story short, we have a classic AFC North matchup ahead of us. The Steelers have the historical advantage in this matchup with a 81-63-1series lead. The last 5 matchups are also in Pittsburgh’s favor with the Steelers winning 3 of the last 5.

The Steelers on offense are built around running the ball and limiting turnovers. They are 15th in points scored and are averaging 23.3 points per game. They average 136 rush yards a game which is 8th in the league. This matches up well against a poor Browns run defense. Paired with the projected weather, I would expect the Steelers to run the ball often. Through the air, they are 28th in the league, averaging 187 yards per game. some of this is due to the Justin Fields games where they relied almost exclusively on the ground game. The other part is that the team is just built to run the ball.

On defense, the Steelers remain one of the better units in the NFL. They are only allowing 16.2 points per game which is 2nd in the league. They are particularly strong against the run, allowing 90 yards per game, which is 4th in the league. Against eh pass, they have been slightly more vulnerable. They allow 214 yards per game, which is 18th in the league. Overall, this matchup favors the Steelers defense tonight.

The Browns offense is averaging 16.2 points per game. That is 31st in the league. They have been struggling to find an identity as well as the end zone. They have shown flashes with Jameis Winston at quarterback, but they lack consistency. Through the air, they are averaging 202 yards which is 20th in the league. On the ground, they are only averaging 88 yards per game, which is 29th in the league. Given that passing will be tough tonight and the fact that they face a stout rush defense, it is hard to see where the Browns score any points.

On defense, the Browns are struggling as well. They are averaging 24.8 points allowed per game which is 24th in the league. They struggle against the run. They are allowing 131 yards per game, which is 24th in the league. Against the pass, they are allowing 211 yards per game which is 16th in the league. Again, this is a tough matchup tonight as they battle the Steelers and the weather conditions.

Best Bet Background – Steelers -3.5

The Steelers are 8-2 this season against the spread. They have the favorable matchup in tonight’s game against the Browns. The Browns have struggled to run the ball efficiently and to score points. Additionally, their kicker has been inconsistent this year, especially when exposed to the elements. With the weather playing a large factor in tonight’s gameplan, I believe that the Steelers are built to handle the conditions better than the Browns. The Steelers, by design, will be running the ball often and taking time off of the clock. I see them getting ahead by relying on their two running backs and their incredibly reliable kicker, Chris Boswell. The Steelers should win tonight, and I expect them to cover as well.