Week 14 kicks off with what is already being picked as the game of the week. We have an NFC North matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. Betting wise, we are coming off of a great Thanksgiving week where we went 6-3 on the Best Bets. We are going to keep the good streak going tonight. I have picked the bet that I believe will hit tonight and outlined some background stats on tonight’s matchup. First things first, the Best Bet!

Best Bet

Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yards over 65.5 (-110) FanDuel

Packers @ Lions

The 9-3 Packers are traveling to Detroit to take on the 11-1 Lions. These teams have an extensive history over the years. Up until recently, this matchup has been dominated by the Packers. The Packers lead the all-time series 106-77-7. In the last 5 games, the Lions have won 4 of 5 with the last matchup taking place earlier this season resulting in a 24-14 Detroit win. This is a great matchup between two good teams and should be an awesome game.

The Packers offense comes into this matchup scoring the 8th most points in the league, averaging 26.5 points per game. They have started to click as of late now that Jordan Love has had some time to heal from his early season injury. Their passing offense is 8th in the league averaging 234 yards per game. They have a good matchup against a Detroit defense that is letting up a lot of yards through the air and are banged up on defense. The Packers should be able to take advantage of that and I would expect some big numbers from Jordan Love tonight. To help him out, the Packers can lean on their 5th ranked rush offense, which is averaging 148 yards per game. The addition of Josh Jacobs to this offense was exactly what the team needed. Last week, Jacobs was our lone loss on Thanksgiving but I would expect him to be a big part of the offense again tonight.

On defense, the Pack are allowing 20 points per game, which is 9th in the NFL. They are stout against the run, allowing 106 yards per game which is 8th in the league. Against the pass, they are 17th by allowing 217 yards per game. Despite these solid stats, they are facing one of the league’s best offenses. The Detroit offense can attack in any way they want, and they keep their foot on the pedal. The Packers defense will have their hands full. A key play that will be missing tonight is Star Corner Jaire Alexander. We will see how they are able to hold up against Jared Goff and his receivers.

The Detroit offense is the top scoring offense in the NFL. They are averaging 31.9 points per game. They probably have the most balanced offense in the league. They are 5th in pass yards, averaging 240 yards per game and 4th in rush yards, averaging 154 yards per game. A key injury for this offense is their starting left tackle, Taylor Decker is out. As a whole, the offense has been rolling over their opponents recently. The strength of this team is really the run game as they have a two headed monster coming out of the backfield. They are able to run the ball in passing situations and will be able to control the clock if that is the type of game that they want to play.

On defense, the Lions are allowing 16.9 points per game, which is 2nd in the NFL. The big talking point about this Lions defense is that they are losing players left and right. They have not been able to get after the quarterback which does not complement their offense at all. They are allowing 226 yards per game, which is 25th in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 93 yards per game, which is 5th in the league. However, these numbers can change quickly due to them playing practice squad players and free agents off the street. In short, this game will have to be an offensive shootout in order for the Lions to win.

Best Bet Background – Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yards over 65.5

Gibbs is once again my pick for the Best Bet. He is averaging 81 yards per game. He has the ability to break long runs. He comes into this game with 9 carries of over 20 yards on the season. That is the 4th most in the NFL behind Saquon, King Henry, and Jordan Mason. There have only been 3 games where Gibbs has not run for over 66 yards, He has been incredibly consistent throughout the year. The Packers do have a solid run defense, but Gibbs was able to gain 65 yards against them the last time that these two teams played. That game was in the elements. This time, it is on the Detroit home turf and Gibbs will be able to use his full speed out there.