Week 17 got off to an early start by kicking off on Christmas Day. Our Best Bets went 1-1 and our parlay for the day hit, which was a nice gift. We are onto day two of Week 17 with a Thursday Night game between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe has the best chance to hit tonight. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Jaxson Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards over 72.5 (-110)

Seahawks @ Bears

Match-up Overview and History

Tonight’s game features the 8-7 Seahawks traveling to Chicago to take on the 4-11 Bears. The Seahawks are on the bubble for a playoff spot and need to win this game to keep pace with the LA Rams. The Bears are in a freefall as losers of 9 straight. They need to win for pride tonight. The weather is forecasted to be in the mid 40’s so that should not be a factor. The Seahawks are favored to win by -4.5 and the point total is set at 42.5. One intersteing note on the Seahawks, they have actually have a better away record than a home rcord. They are 3-6 at home but are 5-1 when playing away. We’ll see if that trend continues tonight.

Seahawks Offense

Seattle has had a decent offense all year. They are right in the middle of the pack in terms of points scored. They are averaging 22.6 points per game, which is 15th in the NFL. They are much more effective at passing the ball than they are at running the ball. Geno Smith, who has been dealing with some injuries as of late, has this pass game in the top 5 in the NFL. They are ranked 4th and are averaging 244 yards per game. Geno has a duo of dynamic receivers that he has bene able to rely upon. DK Metcalf and JSN have been a great pair of receivers for this offense. On the ground, they are struggling. The run game averages 91 yards per game, which is 31st in the NFL. They will be missing their started running back, Kenneth Walker, tonight so it will be up to Zach Charbonnet to carry the rock tonight. The good news for Seattle is that the Chicago defense has been struggling against both the run and the pass. Seattle should be able to roll through this defense. The one point of concern for this Seattle offense would be their turnovers. The team is -7, which is ranked 26th, in takeaway difference.

Seahawks Defense

On defense, Seattle has been playing exactly how you would expect a team hovering around .500 to play. They are 12th in the league in terms of points allowed, by averaging 22.7 points allowed per game. Against the pass, this defense is 16th in the NFL by allowing 213 pass yards per game. On the ground, they are allowing 124 yards per game, which is 18th in the league. They have a favorable matchup tonight against a very bad Chicago offense.

Bears Offense

There was so much optimism around this Bears team at the start of the year. That is no longer the case. They are 26th in the league in points scored and are averaging 18.9 points per game. Caleb Williams constantly looks like he has no idea where to throw the ball. He is leading the pass offense to an average of 191 yards per game. That is ranked 27th in the NFL. You would think that the run game could help out their rookie quarterback but they are ranked 25th, averaging 103 yards per game. No two ways about it, this offense is not good. They do seem to take care of the ball as the Bears are +8 in takeaway difference.

Bears Defense

The Chicago defense was once decent enough to allow their struggling offense to figure it out. Then head coach Matt Eberflus was fired and the defense has been struggling. They have been averaging 422.6 yards and 31 points per game allowed since the firing. For the season as a whole, this defense is allowing 22.8 points per game, which is 13th in the NFL. Against the pass, they allow an average of 225 yards per game, which is 23rd in the league. On the ground, they are allowing 134 rush yards per game, which is 26th in the league. This team has been unable to stop their opponents from doing much, especially as of late. I am looking at this matchup and am struggling to see how Chicago is able to even keep this close.

Best Bet Background – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards over 72.5

JSN is once again my pick for our Best Bet because he has been a model of consistency. he has achieved more than 73 yards in his last 7 games. Once DK Metcalf went down and missed some games during the year, JSN became the number one guy. Once DK came back from injury, JSN remained the top wideout for the Seahawks. He faces a terrible Chicago pass defense and should have plenty of opportunities. My one note of concern is that this game might get out of hand and the Seahawks will turn to the run earlier than they normally would. However, JSN has the ability for the big play and Seattle likes to run him on crossing routes that allow for yard-after-catch. I would expect JSN to continue his dominance tonight.