Super Bowl Best Bet and Analysis

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We have reached the end of the NFL season. The Super Bowl is here at last, and we have a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. We have had a great year in terms of betting as our Best Bets for the regular season ended up at 55% which was above the 52.4% mark that we needed to hit. The playoffs have proved to be a bit more difficult as those Best Bets stand at 5-7. However, we have the last game of the year to end on a high note. While the Super Bowl is the most heavily bet on game of the year and there are plenty of props and gimmicky bets out there to put money on, we are going to stick with what has been working all year. I have gone through the slate and chosen the one bet that I believe will hit. Below is some background on the matchup, background on the Best Bet, and a No Sweat Parlay pick for the game. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Kareem Hunt Rush Yards over 42.5 (-110) FanDuel

Match-up Overview and History

These teams have plenty of recent history. As mentioned above and by every sports writer out there, this is a rematch of Super Bowl 57, where the Chiefs managed to win 38-35. These teams have played each other 11 times in their history and the Chiefs lead the tally 6-5, with the most recent matchup being a 21-17 Eagle victory on November 20th, 2023. These two teams have had the past two weeks to prepare for this rematch. The line for this game has gone back-and-forth all week but as it stands today, the Chiefs are a 1.5 favorite and the point total is set at 48.5.

Chiefs Offense

This was a “down” year by the Chiefs offense. Gone are the days where they throw the ball all over the field with their speedy receivers. Opposing defenses have figured out that they need to keep guys back in coverage and force the Chiefs to earn every yard in order to get down the field. Additionally, the Chiefs have reached the point of dominance where they are not concerned with stats. They are in the business of winning close games. The offense was the 15th ranked scoring offense averaging 22.6 points per game. They managed to spread the ball around through the air enough to be the 14th ranked pass game in the NFL. With injuries to wide receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, it is not surprising that these numbers were not higher. Their running game was also impacted by a major injury. Running back Isiah Pacheco missed several games and has not been the same since returning from injury. Kansas City signed Kareem Hunt off of the couch to fill in the starting role. He as been a solid back but the run game for the Chiefs has been underwhelming. They averaged 105 yards per game, which was 22nd in the league. At the end of the day, this offense will go as Patrick Mahomes goes. Despite winning games, he was struggling a bit with interceptions. However, it has been 9 straight games without a pick for Mahomes. He will need to continue this trend in order to win tonight.

Chiefs Defense

The unit led by Steve Spagnuolo, has been hitting their stride in the playoffs but they have been a major reason that the Chiefs have won as many games as they have. They are a rbend- don’t break type of defense, where teams can gain yards but struggle to put up points consistently. They were the 4th ranked scoring defense n the league, allowing 19.2 points per game. Teams were able to get down the field primarily through the air, as they were the 18th ranked pass defense, allowing 218 yards per game. They have a favorable matchup against the Eagles offense who does not put up that many yards through the air. The key matchup for this game is going to be the run defense against the Eagles run game. The Chiefs were 8th in yards per game against the run, allowing 101 yards per game. They face a two headed rushing monster in Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. The key for the Chiefs will be to eliminate the big run play while also getting pressure on Hurts in the pass game. History has shown that Spags and his guys will be up for the task.

Eagles Offense

The Eagles are getting a chance to show off their high-flying offense on the biggest stage. This team has had some ups and downs through the year, but they have managed to be a well-rounded team overall. They averaged 27.2 points per game, which was 7th in the NFL. They did so mainly due to their 2nd ranked rushing offense. The combination of Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and this offensive line has allowed for a historic season on the ground for the Eagles rush attack. Barkley ran for over 2000 yards and was in spitting distance of setting the single season rushing record but chose to sit for Week 18. In the playoffs, he has been going off. He has run for 442 yards and 5 TDs in 3 playoff games this year. It has been an unreal performance, and he was rewarded with the Offensive Player of the Year award. As such, he is going to be the focal point of this game tonight. The Eagles pass game has not been that impressive this year, but they show up when needed. They averaged 187 yards per game, which was 29th in the league. However, if needed, this team with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert can go off at any moment.

Eagles Defense

If you are going to win 17 games in a seson, you need to be able to play complementary footballl. The Eagles have done this almost better than anyone in the league. Their defense has been one of the top units in the league. They allowed 17.8 points per game, which was 2nd in the league. Pair that with their ability to run the ball and score on offense, you get a winning formula. This defensive nit is littered with super stars but it all starts up front with Jalen Carter and the rest of this defensive line. They will have the ability to exploit what is probably the weakest part of the KC offense, which is their offensive line play. The Chiefs ill have their hand full with this defensive front. They can get after the passer and then have the secondary to shut down the pass. In fact, they were the top pass defense in the league this year ,allowing only 174 yards per game. Against he run, they were 10th, allowing 104 yards per game. In summary, this team is tough to move the ball on and even tougher to score on.

Best Bet Background- Kareem Hunt Rush Yards over 42.5

Kareem Hunt has been the leading rusher for this team ever since they signed him off the streets. He has become even more valuable in the playoffs as the Chiefs need to close out games. In the two playoff games that he has played, he ran for 44 yards against a tough Houston defense and 64 yards against the Bills. During the regular season, he averaged 54 yards per carry. They use him when they want to play a more physical run style. They will need that today against a tough Philly defense. They are ranked 10th in rush yards allowed but have shown that they can let up big games to running backs. They allowed Josh Jacobs to go for 81 yards and Kyren Williams to run for over 100 yards. They blew out Washington, so they were not running the ball but still managed to get 40+ yards for Jayden Daniels. Since this game is anticipated to be a close one, the run game for both teams is going to be key to success. Hunt has shown the ability to gain tough yards and has been able to consistently hit over 42 yards throughout the year. This should continue today.