Evaluating each teams expected win totals

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, I have once again gone through each team’s expected win totals for the upcoming year. These are perhaps the more difficult lines to predict as there are so many factors at play over the course of a long season. Below, you will find the odds for each team to win the division. Then, I have given a brief overview of each team, their expected win totals, the roster moves that they have made, and how they will perform in relation to their win total.

NFC EAST

NFC EAST Winner Odds

• Eagles (-135)
• Commanders (+210)
• Cowboys (+550)
• Giants (+2500)

New York Giants – 5.5

The New York Football Giants are coming off one their worst seasons in recent history and potentially the franchise. The rapid decline of quarterback Daniel Jones paired with the historic season of Saquon Barkley on the Eagles, made it a tough season for Giants fans. With a ton of question marks going into the offseason following a 3-14 record, the Giants ownership decided to keep GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll. They are tasked with turning this franchise around or else risk losing their jobs.

With a young corps of players that played significant time last year and a flurry of offseason moves, the Giants have some new energy around the building. However, given the disaster of a year ago, everyone in the organization is on the hot seat. With their backs against the wall, we will see if this leadership group will be able to fight their ways out of this situation or if they will continue to make flailing moves on the way out of the building. They have the leagues toughest strength of schedule, so they have their work cut out for them.

Offense

The 2024 offense was abysmal for the Giants. Inconsistent quarterback play and injuries played a large role in their lack of success. They finished the season averaging 16.1 points per game, which was second to last in the league. This offseason, it appears that the play calling will go back to offensive coordinator, Mike Kafka. Kafka has some new pieces to work with, primarily in the quarterback room.

The Giants added veteran quarterbacks Russ Wilson and Jameis Winston in free agency. Then they drafted Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss in April’s draft. Compared to last year’s group of Daniel Jones and Drew Lock, the top two spots on the depth chart should provide a boost to the offense. Depending on how the team performs early in the season, we may see the start of Dart’s NFL career around Thanksgiving. Worst case scenario, they can always trot Tommy Cutlets back out there to tank for the next year.

The running game will be split between second year player Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary, and rookie Cam Skattebo. In his rookie year, tracy Jr. led the team with 839 rushing yards and 5 tds. As a former wide receiver, he has the ability to gain yards in the pass game as well. Given that he was named the startetr about halfway through the season, expectations are high for Tracy Jr. as he is poised to be the full time starter. Singletary provides a stable and reliable veteran presence who knows the Daboll offense from their Buffalo days and will be useful in 3rd down situations. Skattebo is a hard running back who has Giants fans excited as a potential red zone and short yardage threat.

One of the bright spots of last year was emerging superstar Malik Nabers. Despite the revolving door at quarterback and missing 4 games due to injury, he managed to gain 1204 receiving yards and 7 tds. With more consistent quarterback play and particularly one who has a knack for the deep ball( see Russ Wilson Moon Ball) he can exceed his rookie numbers and ultimately help this team win more. An underrated resigning in this offseason, was Darius Slayton. Slayton suffered the most from the unstable quarterback position but should benfit from Wilson’s deep ball as well. Rounding out this group is Wan’dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, and tight end Theo Johnson. All three are looking to prove that they were worth the draft capital that the Giants spent on them.

The group that will continue to draw the eyes of Giants fans will be the offensive line. For the first time in 10+ years, it appeared that the Giants had fixed their offensive line issue last year. They brought in several veterans to add experience and depth to the interior. Thye finally moved on from Evan Neal at right tackle by bringing in Jermaine Eluemunor. They added a new coach, Carmen Bricillo, who seemed to have solved the communication issues. However, once left tackle, Andrew Thomas, suffered a season ending injury, the house of cards came crashing down. This year, the same starting five will return to the lineup with some depth brought in via the draft and free agency. Andrew Thomas will return as the starting left tackle, Jon Runyan as the left guard, John Michael Scmhitz as the center, Greg Van Roten as the right guard, and Eluemunor as the right tackle. They drafted Marcus Mbowe as a swing tackle and moved Evan Neal from tackle to guard in an effort to prolong his disaapoointing career. We will see if returning the same starting offensive line proves to be a postive for this offense.

Defense

The reason for positivity for this years Giants team, rests with the defense. Much like their Super Bowl winning days, this team has a defensive front that should be able to dominate games. Led by all-pro defensive tackle, Dexter Lawrence, the big blue defensive front has plenty of analysts talking about this group as on of the best in the league. The Giants added some depth to the interior line to complement Lawrence. They added Chauncey Golston in free agency from Dallas and drafted Darius Alexander in the 3rd round to bulk up the middle of the line.

On the edges, they still have Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, who are both looking to improve on previous seasons. Burns struggled with injuries last year while Kayvon struggled again with consistency. The Giants made a big splash by drafting Abdul Carter from Penn State. Carter brings an element that the Giants have not had in quite some time. An athletic freak with position versatility, Carter will be able to play wherever Shane Bowen decides to deploy him.

Joining these edge rushers are the inside linebackers, Bobby Okereke and Micah McFadden. These two had some issues adjusting to the Bowen scheme last year. They were more of a liability than assets last year. They are getting a second year in the system. With the addition of Abdul Carter to the mix, this linebacker corps should bounce back.

In the secondary, the Giants went out for some much-needed help. They added corner, Paulsen Adebo, to take over at CB1 while moving Deonte Banks back to CB2. Second year, Dru Phillips, will look to build on an impressive rookie year playing out of the slot. In the safety position, they lost Jason Pinnock to free agency. However, they landed a much-needed upgrade in Jevon Holland from the dolphins. Holland was a big splash signing as he has been one of the better young safeties in the league. He joins second year, Tyler Nubin and veteran Dane Belton to round out this secondary.

Summary

The Giants are facing an overhaul of the offense. The coaching staff is on the hot seat. They have new quarterbacks. With the league’s toughest schedule, the Giants have too much improvement to make in too little time. The schedule makers were not kind to the Giants. This also applies to the NFC East. They scheduled games against the AFC West and the NFC North. The Giants have potential to improve and become a more competitive team. They will achieve this as they get more stability from the Quarterback. They also need one of the better defenses in the game. However, it is tough to see where they get 6 wins this year.

Bet-Under 5.5 (-130)

Philadelphia Eagles- 11.5

The Eagles were the only team that was happy at the end of the year. This squad put a beating on the Chiefs in the Superbowl and managed to bring back a majority of their key players as they ramp up for a repeat campaign. As most Super Bowl teams usually do, the Eagles lost some key parts of their championship squad. The main departure was their offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, who is now the head coach of the New Orleans Saints.

Offense

The offense will have a new playcaller in Keven Patullo. Patullo has been with the Eagles since 2021 as the Pass Game Coordinator and added “Associate Head Coach” to his title 2 seasons ago. He inherits the 7th highest scoring offense in the league from a year ago. This roster is loaded with talent in seemingly all postions.

Jalen Hurts and his ranking among other NFL quarterbacks is a hotly debated topic. Wherever he is truly ranked, I do not think it matters much. He has proven to be a winner for the Eagles. Since Nick Sirriani has become their head coach, the Eagles have not posted a losing season with Hurts as their quarterback. Their worst season was a 9-8 effort in Sirriani’s first year. Since then, they have gone 14-3, 11-6, and 14-3. With Hurts at the helm, this offense is able to operate efficiently.

The big storyline of last season and offseason, was the Philadelphia acquisition of Saquon Barkley. Barkley had a historic season with the Birds as he rushed for over 2,000 yards. He was within spitting distance of the single season record but decided to choose the team goal over his individual accolades and rested the final game of the regular season. Barkley had a year of ripping off long runs and making Madden-esque plays all year. Barring injury, there is no reason to believe that Saquon will slow down at all this year.

While the run game was the primary source of success for the Eagles in 2024, they still have an explosive pass game sitting on the shelf. When they need to throw the ball, Hurts has one of the better wide receiver duos in the league. A.J Brown had a down year stats wise, from the previous two years. That was due in part to the emergence of the run game but he also missed 4 games last year. He still has the capability for the big play and presents a huge target for Hurts. Devonta Smith also saw a dip in his production last year due to similar reasons. To add to the mix, they also have Jahahn Dotson, who was a mid-season acquisition last year. In the tight end room, they still have Dallas Goedert who is capable of the big play while also playing a part in the run game.

The entire offense was anchored by the big men up front. This offensive line was one of the best in the league and it allowed the entire offense to operate as needed. They did a great job of opening lanes for Barkley to run through without being touched and provided protection for Hurts in the passing game. They did lose Mekhi Becton to free agency and have elevated Tyler Steen to take over the Right Guard Position. They return the remaining four starters in Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, and Lane Johnson this year. It is tough to imagine that there will be much fall off from their performance last year, so I expect this offense, led by the offensive line, to pick up where they left off last year.

Defense

The reason that this Eagles team was so dangerous last year was because they were very balanced and talented. Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio, put on a masterclass with this defensive unit. By allowing just 17.8 points per game, the Eagles defense ranked 2nd in points allowed per game.

One huge loss up front for the Eagles was Brandon Graham who retired after a 15- year career. However, Howie Roseman has done a great job of keeping the defensive line stocked with talent and depth, so Graham’s impact will most likely be missed off the field more so than on the field. They will turn to their youth in Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis to anchor the interior defensive line. Carter is coming off of a 10.5 sack season and a dominant performance in the playoffs. Davis has been quiet and reliable as a rotational piece. He recently had his fifth year option picked up, which means that the Eagles obviously value him.

On the edges, you have Nolan smith coming back from injury and should be ready to wreak havoc for quarterbacks. On the opposite side, it is less certain who will start. Jalyx Hunt was someone who the Eagles are looking to develop as a more consistent pass rush. In the meantime, they went out and signed veterans Azeez Ojulari from the Giants and Josh Uche from the Chiefs. Having this amount of depth is only a good thing as Vic Fangio can have plenty of fresh legs to send as pass rushers.

The interior linebackers room got their main guy back. Zack Baun signed a multi-year deal after being in the defensive player of the year conversation last year. This was a huge resigning for this defense as he was the anchor for the unit. His running partner, Nakobe Dean, is still coming back from injury and will potentially miss some games early. However, they drafted Jihaad Campbell as a potential replacement/rotational piece. They also still have Jerimiah Trotter Jr. who will potentially get some playing time to fill in any gaps.

Summary

The Eagles are set up to run through their tough schedule. They have been battle tested and the change of offensive coordinator should not hold this team back. The will still have the guys on the offense to put up points and the defense is still being led by one of the best coordinators in the game. Unless they get bitten by the injury bug, they should be able to win 12 games and will be attempting to be the first NFC East team to repeat as division champs in 20+ years. It would also be worth looking at them to repeat as Super Bowl winners, they are listed at +750 to win.

Bet – Over 11.5 (+110)

Washington Commanders- 9.5

• Head Coach – Dan Quinn
• OC- Kliff Kingsbury
• DC – Joe Whitt Jr.
• 2024 Record- 12-5
• Strength of Schedule – 19th easiest

The Commanders were the surprise of the league last year. They have set the blueprint for organizations that are hoping to turn things around very quickly. They got a new owner, a new GM, a new coaching staff, and a new franchise quarterback. Led by Jayden Daniels on the field, the commanders had the “team of destiny” feel throughout the entire season. With spectacular comebacks like the hail mary against the Bears, this team seemed like a fun squad to root for. Then they got into the playoffs and went on a run that no one saw coming. They beat the Bucs in a thriller during the wild card round. They then went on the road and knocked off the number 1 seed in the Lions. Ultimately, they lost in the NFC championship to the eventual Super Bowl champions. With some offseason moves to bolster an already dynamic offense, this team is going to be fun to watch on a weekly basis.

Offense

The offense was 5th in points per game last year, averaging 28.5 points per game. Led by offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, this team started off slow but really came into its own with the rapid growth of Jayden Daniels.

Quarterback, Jayden Daniels, had a historic season for a rookie quarterback. Putting the statistics aside for a moment, he helped the Commanders to a 12-5 record and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. His calm demeanor and ability to come through in the clutch was at a level that most veterans do not reach. Hi ability to rn and throw, is the perfect fit for Kliff Kingsburys high tempo offesnse.

The running backs for this team include Brian Robinson, Autin Ekeler, Chris Rodrigues, and Jeremy McNichols. It is rare that I would list all four backs, however, due to injury or certain packages, Kingbury was able to use all four effectively. Not only do they run the ball, they all support the pass game as well.

Terry McLaurin was the top threat for this team once again. However, he is currently locked in a contract dispute with the front office. Assuming that this all gets worked out, he will once again be Daniels’ top target. Besides McLaurin, the receiving corps was missing some depth last year. The WR2 spot was a revolving door throughout the year. This was potentially fixed as they went out and got Deebo Samuel from the 49ers. He will obviously fit into the game as a runner and a pass catcher. Given the ongoing contract dispute with McLaurin, Deebo might end up as the top weapon for Jayden Daniels. Behind them are Noah Brown, Luke McCafferey, and Michael Gallup. Add in Zach Ertz at the tight end position, this is a dangerous group of ball catchers.

The offensive line was an issue for this team last year. Their deficiencies were covered up by Jayden Daniels’ scrambling ability. However, the front office decided to address it in the offseason and brought in Laremy Tunsil via a trade with the Texans. Tunsil is one of the best left tackles in the league and immediately upgrades this line. To pair with him, they drafted Josh Conerly Jr. out of Oregon. the interior includes Nick Allegretti, Tyler Biadasz, and Sam Cosmi. This group as a whole will be tasked with improving and providing protection for their superstar quarterback.

Defense

In a Dan Quinn led team, you would expect the defense to lead the charge. However, last year proved to be difficult for this defensive unit. They struggled mightily against the run as they ranked 30th in the league. This was not helped by the departure of defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. As a replacement, they did sign Javon Kinlaw to pair with Daron Payne on the interior. In theory, these two should provide a stout middle of the line and help with improving the run defense.

On the edge, they lost Dante Fowler Jr. to free agency. That means that Dorance Armstrong will need to step up. To bring in some firepower, Washington was able to land vet Von Miller. Miller has not shown the same explosiveness that he once had but he can still get after the quarterback. He joins an aging defense that needs to improve if this team wants to reach the next level.

Speaking of aging, the agless wonder Bobby Wagner was resigned to lead the defense from his middle linebacker position. He will line up with Frankie Luvu who proved to be a solid player with a ton of energy, despite being in the league for 7 years. He was responsible for letting the NFL world know that the refs could award a touchdown to the offense. This came when he kept trying to jump the snap to prevent the tush push against the Eagles. He finsihed with 8 sacks and 99 total tackles last year.

While the run defense was suspect, the pass defense also had some issues. This was addressed by a mid-season trade for corner Marshon Lattimore last year. He will once again be lined up with Mike Sainristil, who had a solid rookie season. The safeties had some turnover as well. Jeremy Chinn left in free agency, so Will Harris was signed to fill his spot. He will pair with Quan Martin to shut down the backside of the field. This unit will need to improve in both the pass and run to help the Commanders achieve their goals for this year.

Summary

Despite all of the excitement from last year, the Commanders may be headed for a sophomore slump. The offense is still going to be high powered and should never be counted out of any game. However, the defense from last year was a major liability and I do not believe that they made enough improvements to that side of the ball for this team to be relied on. They are facing a much more difficult schedule and teams are not going to be seeing Jayden Daniels for the first time. All that being said, it is hard to bet against someone who has the clutch gene. I believe that it will be a grind but the Commanders should find a way to win 10 games.

Bet- Over 9.5 (-115)

Dallas Cowboys- 7.5

Bet- Under 7.5 (+105)