AFC North

The AFC North is where old school football is still played. The rivalries between each of these teams make each AFC North matchup must watch football, except for maybe the Browns/Bengals games. The Ravens and Steelers are pillars of consistency and are always in the mix when it comes to the playoffs. The Bengals have an explosive offense and a terrible defense that makes any game an exciting shootout. The Browns remain the Browns and are struggling to find their quarterback. The Ravens have won the division for the past two seasons and they are primed for a three-peat. Let’s go through each teams odds to win the division and see what moves they made in the offseason.

Division Winner Odds

• Baltimore Ravens (-155)
• Cincinnati Bengals (+260)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+490)
• Cleveland Browns (+3500)

Baltimore Ravens – 11.5

• Head Coach – John Harbaugh
• OC- Todd Monken
• DC – Zach Orr
• 2024 Record – 12-5
• Strength of Schedule – 21st Easiest

The Ravens were one of the best teams in the NFL last year. They won the AFC North by two games. Lamar Jackson had another MVP caliber season. They added Derrick Henry in the offseason and it completely changed their offense. An odd twist on the year was the poor performance of their pass defense. This came back to bite them in a few games throughout the season. Their season ultimately ended in the divisional round with a heartbreaking loss to the Bills, when Mark Andrews dropped the potential game tying 2-point conversion. They have retooled and are looking to make another run at the Super Bowl in 2025.

Offense

The 2024 Ravens were one of the best offensive teams in the league. They had one of the more balanced attacks in the NFL. They were among the top in terms of rush yards and pass yards. They were the 3rd highest scoring team, averaging 30.5 points per game. This was all orchestrated by quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson had another stellar season. He passed for 4.172 yards, 41 TDs, and 4 ints. On the ground, he ran for 915 yards and 4 TDs. There is not much else to say about Jacksons game other than, if he remains healthy, he should have another season where he is in the MVP race. The Ravens added some veteran depth by signing former Cowboy Cooper Rush.

The biggest change to this offense last season was the addition of Derrick Henry. At times, it seemed unfair for him to be on the Ravens. They were one of the most dominant run attacks in the league. Henry accounted for 1,921 yards and 16 TDs, which was second behind Saquon Barkley. Despite being over the age of 30, Henry shows no signs of slowing down. He will be spelled by Justice Hill and Keion Mitchell. Hill was used primarily in passing situations while Mitchell is being picked as a potential breakout this year.

The wide out room for the Ravens always seems to strike the balance of old vets and young prospects. This years team is no different. Their top target last year was Zay Flowers who had 74 catches, 1,059 yards, and 4 TDs. Entering his third year in the league, he is looking to continue to improve his production. Rashod Bateman was a former first round pick by the Ravens and had never lived up to the pick. Last year, he began to have a break out year. He caught 45 balls for 756 yards and 9 TDs. He became their deep ball target and found his role in this offense. He look to continue to carve out his spot on this team. They are joined by veteran Deandre Hopkins. DHop is definitely at the end of his career. He was once in the discussion for the best receiver in the league. Now, he will most likely fill a mentor role while adding production in the red zone.

Adding to the targets for Jackson will be tight ends Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely. Andrews spent last year working himself back into a prominent role after missing time in the 2023 season with injury. Once he came back into the fold, he was as productive as ever. He scored 11 TDs and had 673 yards. Likely will look to build on his productive three seasons. However, he suffered a foot injury in camp and might miss some time.

The offensive line last year was a confusing group. They helped the Ravens have one of the best rush attacks. However, they struggled to protect the quarterback. The interior of the line struggled whenever they played against premier defensive linemen. They are essentially running it back with the same crew. Ronnie Staley at left tackle, Andrew Vorhees at left guard, Tyler Linderbaum at center, Daniel Faalele at right guard, and Roger Rosengarten at right tackle. Hopefully another year of playing together will improve their pass protection but it will be something to keep an eye on as the year begins.

Defense

The Ravens have a history of being a defensive based team. Last year was the first time in a while that we saw some cracks. Their run defense was top of the line. However, their pass defense was ranked in the bottom in terms of yards allowed. This allowed opposing teams to stay in games and resulted in some crazy games against the Bengals and some upsets as well. With some upgrades to the secondary in the offseason and a second year in the Zach Orr system, they should see some improvement.

The defensive line sets the tone for a stout run defense. They did lose Michael Pierce to retirement, so it remains to be seen if his absence makes a difference. Meanwhile, the combination of Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Broderick Washington will hold down the fort. Madubuike is one of the best defensive linemen on the league. He recorded 43 tackles and 6.5 sacks last year. Travis Jones will be playing in the middle and will be looking to solidify the line. He has emerged as a force when stopping the run. Broderick Washington has been a rotational piece and will continue to contribute this year.

The linebackers for this Ravens defense has a good blend of youth and veteran leadership. Off the edges, they will have Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy. Odafeh had his best year rushing the quarterback last year. He recorded 10 sacks and 1 forced fumble. If he can replicate this effort, this pass rush will be scary. On the other side, Kyle Van Noy has found the fountain of youth. In his 11th season, he recorded a career high 12.5 sacks. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Van Noy appears to be improving with age. If these two can continue their production, opposing quarterbacks will find it difficult to move the ball down the field.

The interior linebackers for this team are Roquon Smith and Trenton Simpson. Smith is an All-Pro linebacker. He has had 150+ tackles in each of his two seasons with the Ravens. Smith is particularly adept at stuffing the run. He led the team last year with 17 run stuffs. Simpson gets another opportunity to solidify his starting role alongside Smith. He had 73 tackles last year.

The secondary was the weakness of this defense last year. They gave up a lot of yards and big plays through the air. They have added some depth to potentially address this issue. Marlon Humphrey continues to be an elite talent at corner. He had 6 interceptions, which was third in the league last year. He earned first team All-Pro honors last year. He will continue to be an issue for opposing offenses. Working with him will be second year player Nate Wiggins. Wiggins went through a typical rookie experience at corner. Entering his second year, he is looking to have a breakout year. In a move to add depth in this secondary, the Ravens brought in Jaire Alexander. Alexander, when on the field, is a top corner in the league. However, he has rarely played a full season in his career. Over the past two years, he has only played 7 games in each season. In 2021, he only played 4 games. If healthy, he will round out a very solid secondary tat should improve from last year.

In the safety room, they have Kyle Hamilton and Malaki Starks. Hamilton remains a cornerstone and Swiss army knife for this defense. He can be used in coverage or near the line to stop the run and he is elite in each situation. He will be joined by rookie Malaki Starks who plays an aggressive style of run defense. The first round pick out of Georgia will start immediately and will attempt to live up to the long history of Ravens defensive backs becoming elite.

Summary

The Ravens remain the cream of the crop in the NFL. They have maintained a majority of their starters while adding a good mix of veterans and young players. Head Coach John Harbaugh will ensure that this team continues to improve as they not only look to capture their third straight division title but look to get back to the Super Bowl. Despite a tough schedule and playing in a tough division, this team should not fall off from last year. They should be able to continue to field a well balanced offense. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry pose a huge threat to any team playing them. On defense, they are still set up to stop the run and have made strides to improve their pass defense. I would bet that this team finds a way to win 12 games once again.

Bet – Over 11.5 (-125)

Cincinnati Bengals – 9.5

• Head Coach – Zac Taylor
• OC – Dan Pitcher
• DC – Al Golden
• 2024 record – 9-8
• Strength of Schedule – 17th Easiest

The 2024 Bengals got off to a slow start and they were never able to recover. The slow start has been a reoccurring theme for the Zac Taylor led Bengals. This past year, they started 1-4 before they were able to win back-to-back games. They finished the season on a strong note by winning their last five games. However, the damage was done and they were uable to make the playoffs. The theme of the year was great offense and terrible defense. They were 6th in the league on offense, averaging 27.8 points per game. On defense, they allowed 25.5 points per game, which was 25th in the league. In the offseason, they fired their defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, and hired Al Golden. The focus on the roster was to bring back their offensive weapons. Outside of the new coordinator, the defense has done little to inspire confidence that this year will be any different from last year.

Offense

The Bengals offense is going to be the driver of any success for this team. It is stocked with fire power and it is all led by quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow probably would have been in the conversation for MVP last year if the team had been better. On paper, he had an incredible season. He threw for 4,918 yards, 43 TDs, and 9 Ints. He also completed 70.6% of his passes. Hard to improve on those numbers. The silver lining of the Bengals missing the playoffs is that Burrow had a full offseason with n injury for the first time in his NFL career. A fully healthy Burrow could be the missing ingredient for a faster start for the Bengals.

Running back chase Brown was a breakout star for this team last year. As time went on, he slowly earned a larger role in this offense. He was primarily a third down back and would spell Zack Moss. Moss got hurt and Brown started to produce at such a high level that he earned the top role. He finished the year with 990 rush yards and 7 TDs. Now, Moss is no longer on the team and Brown will be the every down back moving forward. To back him up, the Bengals resigned Samaje Perine who has found success in passing and blocking situations.

Burrow has the best wide receiver duo in the league. His old college teammate, Ja’Marr Chase is essentially a cheat code in this offense. He is faster than everyone. He doesn’t drop the ball. He has incredible chemistry with Burrow that adds an unspoken element to this offense, which is nearly impossible to defend. Last year, he went off for 1708 yards and 17 TDs. He if flanked by Tee Higgins who had 911 yards and 10 TDs. Higgins has been missing time due to injury but is considered by many around the league to be a true number 1 receiver himself. When these two are healthy, it forces opposing defenses to pick their poison. Rounding out the starting receivers is Andrei Iosivas. Iosivas is entering his third year in the league and will look to continue to ramp up his production and earn the third wide receiver role.

Adding to the receivers will be the tight ends. Mike Gesicki seemingly found his home in Cincinatti last year and developed a quick rapport with Burrow. He was third on the team with 665 yards and added 2 TDs. They were able to add Noah Fant from the Seahawks as well. Fant is an athletic tight end who can be used as a receiver. He has averaged 550 yards a year during his six year career.

The offensive line for the Bengals always seems like a work in progress and that will continue to be the case this season. They have a star at left tackle in Orlando Brown Jr. Then the rest of the line will consist of Dylan Fairchild at left guard, Ted Karras at center, Lucas Patrick at right guard, and Amarius Mims at right tackle. Joe Burrow was the 5th most sacked quarterback last year with 48 sacks. They will need to do a better job of protecting their star QB this year.

Defense

The defense has a new play caller in Al Golden. Golden comes from the college ranks and is tasked with turning this defensive unit around. The issue may be out of his control. The defensive line has a new look and it is hard to say that it is improved. Sam Hubbard, one of the more consistent ends in the game, retired unexpectedly this offseason. Trey Hendrickson, who led the NFL in sacks last year, does not want to play for the Bengals. After a long hold out and contentious contract negotiations, he has returned to practice but it does seem like the relationship is past repair. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins was released. Replacing Hubbard will either be either Myles Murphy or Shemar Stewart. Murphy is a third year player with not much production so far. Stewart is a rookie who is seen as an athletic developmental player. Stewart was involved in his own contract dispute with the Bengals during mini camp that was only recently resolved. The only happy person on this line appears to be defensive tackle B.J Hill who is dealing with a foot injury. It is hard to see how this line will be able to be productive this year.

The leader of this defense was in the linebacking room. Germaine Pratt wore the green dot for this defense. When Lou Anarumo was fired and all the money was going towards offensive players, Pratt requested a trade. The Bengals decided to release him instead. Now it appears that Logan Wilson will be the leader of this linebacking room. Wilson has been with the Bengals for five years and has had over 100 tackles in the past four seasons. He will be flanked by Oren Burks and Demetrius Knight Jr. Burks is a veteran who has bounced around the league. Knight is a rookie out of South Carolina who was drafted in the second round. It will be interesting to see how this linebacking corps moves on without their longtime leader.

The secondary of the Bengals is another area of concern. Cam Taylor-Britt is clearly the top dog in the pack. He had three picks last year but was wildly inconsistent. On the other side, will be Dax Hill who is entering his fourth year or Dj Turner who is a third year player. Neither inspire much confidence. The best safety on the team is Geno Stone and he is injured. He is considered week-to-week. The other safety is Jordan Battle. Battle has not seen much playing time and will need to earn the starting role.

Summary

The Bengals have typically gotten off to a slow start every year. Once the offense finds its groove, they find a way to win games. This year, they have a couple of winnable games to start against Cleveland and Jacksonville. However, they were expected to win their week one game against the Patriots last year. The main concern for this year is going to be the defense. They struggled last year and did little to address their issues. Firing Lou Anarumo also feels like a mistake. He was touted as one of the best defensive coordinators in the league not too long ago. That could be an example of how fast things can change in the NFL or it could point towards personnel issues on the defense. I would lean towards the latter. This defense is going to be a liability all year and will force the offense into an unsustainable position. This team will not win more than 9 games this year.

Bet – Under 9.5 (-110)

Cleveland Browns – 4.5

• Head Coach – Kevin Stefanski
• OC – Tommy Rees
• DC – Jim Schwartz
• 2024 Record – 3-14
• Strength of Schedule – 31st Easiest

The 2024 season was awful for the Browns. They had a revolving door at quarterback. They were unable to run the ball. They couldn’t stop opposing teams from scoring. Their offense was last in points scored. They averaged 15.2 points per game. On defense, they were allowing 25.6 points per game. That was 27th in the league. They only won 3 games and restarted their search for a franchise quarterback. Kevin Stefanski has won coach of the year twice and is only one year removed from an 11 win season. So there is something in place there. However, his seat might start to get hot if thi team does not start winning.

Offense

The offense is in desperate need of a quarterback. So the Browns have employed the “throw it at the wall to see what sticks” method. They brought Joe Flacco back in to be the presumptive starter for the season. Flacco led the Browns to the playoffs two years ago. He struggled last year in Indy and found his way ack to the Browns. They also traded for Kenny Pickett who spent last year as a backup in Philly. They then drafted Dillion Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round. While the future quarterback might be a back up on this team, it does appear that Flacco will start. The other three quarterbacks currently carry an injury designation, so it might not be much of a competition.

The running game was nearly non existent last year. Jerome Ford was the lead rusher with 565 yards and 3 TDs. They let Nick Chubb walk in free agency so Ford will continue to be the lead back. However, his production is not inspiring and they will most likely employ a running back by committee. They drafted Quinshon Judkins from Ohio State to help split the carries. Judkins has been surrounded with controversy due to being arrested in July for an alleged domestic incident. The NFL has yet to determine if there will be disciplinary actions. Additionally, Judkins has yet to sign his contract. Not much to be optimistic about in the Browns run game.

The wide receivers for the Browns were almost as uninspiring in 2024. However, Jerry Jeudy was the lone bright spot for this offense. Jeudy found chemistry with quarterback Jameis Winston and had his best year as a pro. He caught 90 balls for 1,229 yards and 4 TDs. Whoever the quarterback is for the Browns, will need to target Jeudy as much as possible if they want to produce anything in this offense. The other starting receivers are going to be Cedric Tillman and Jamari Thrash. Tillman had 339 yards and 3 TDs last year. He will play a bigger role in the offense this year. Thrash had 3 catches for 22 yards last year. This will be his chance to earn a role.

If I had to guess, the guy who will be second in receiving yards this year will be tight end David Njoku. Njoku had 505 yards and 5 TDs last year. However, in the year where Flacco was the quarterback, he had 882 yards. As long as Flacco is the QB, Njoku will be a large part of the offense.

Per Pro Football Focus, the Browns are the 27th ranked offensive line unit. They are an aging group that has issue with durability. The line up will be Dawand Jones at left tackle, Joel Botinio at left guard, Ethan Pocic at center, Wyatt Teller at right guard, and Jack Conklin at right tackle.

Defense

The defensive line is probably one of the best units on this team. It is anchored by Myles Garrett. Garrett is constantly in the conversation for DPOY. Last year he earned his fourth First Team All-Pro. He had 14 sacks for the second year in a row. He is a monster on the line and will continue his dominance if healthy this year. On the other side will be Alex Wright, who is coming back from injury. In his last healthy season, he managed to record 5 sacks. The interior of this line got a huge boost this year when they drafted Mason Graham out of Michigan. Graham is a disruptive defensive tackle on his own. If lined up next to Myles Garrett, it will cause plenty of headaches for offensive lines. Next to him will be veteran Maliek Collins who brings plenty of experience.

Playing behind them will be linebackers Mohamoud Diabate, Carson Schwesinger, and Devin Bush. They lost their leader when Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah got placed on the PUP list for the season. This group will have to step up in his absence. Diabate and Bush played in this system last year and played well while filling in. Schwesinger is a rookie that the Browns are very high on.

The secondary is led by cornerback Denzel Ward. Ward was a pro bowler last year. He has been consistently the best defensive back on the Browns for a while now. He will be the reliable player in this thin defensive back group. Playing with him will be Greg Newsome and Cameron Mitchell. Newsome is dealing with an injury. Mitchell is entering his third year and has had a minimal role in the defense so far. The safeties Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman will anchor this defense and attempt to provide support.

Summary

The Browns were a mess last year and it appears that it will be more of the same this year. They do not have a clear cut starter at quarterback which is inherently an issue. Having multiple quarterbacks will split the locker room and the fan base throughout the year. With someone like Shedeur Sanders on the bench, it will get loud if the team struggles early. With the second toughest schedule in the league, I could see this team struggling to find their first win until week 11. That means I am taking the under for their win total this year.

Bet – Under 4.5 (+120)

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5

• Head Coach – Mike Tomlin
• OC – Arthur Smith
• DC – Teryl Austin
• 2024 Record – 10-7
• Strength of Schedule- 24th Easiest

2024 was business as usual for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season and last year continued that streak. From a betting standpoint, the Steelers have been great. They are fairly predictable and never make too make waves. From a fan perspective, the Steelers are frustrating. Ever since the retirement of Big Ben, the Steelers have been looking for their next franchise quarterback. Most franchise quarterbacks are found at the top of the first round. With Tomlin at the helm, the Steelers are never going to lose enough games to earn those high draft picks. They have been trying to sign veteran quarterbacks to gap the bridge while continuing to build a strong foundation through the draft. The frustrating part for the fans is that they have not been able to win a playoff game since 2016. This year, they signed yet another veteran quarterback in the offseason but they made some un-Steeler like moves in free agency. It appears that they are going “all-in” with this team.

Offense

One of the biggest storylines in the entire NFL was centered around where Aaron Rodgers was going to sign after getting released by the Jets. There was a lot of smoke that it would be Pittsburgh. It turned out to be true. Rodgers signed a 1 year deal and will most likely retire after the season is done. Rodgers had a tough go of it in New York. His off the field persona is often at odds with his on the field production. However, coming off of a torn Achilles at the age of 40, he managed to throw for 3,897 yards 28 TDs and 11 ints. It was on par with previous seasons. He certainly can not move as well as he once did but he can still throw the ball as good as anyone. He will have to learn a new system this year with Arthur Smith.

The quarterback is not the only new starter on this offense. After years of Najee Harris being the top back and Jaylen Warren splitting carries, Warren is now the number one running back. Warren has always been a change of pace back and more of a receiving threat. Warren only had 120 carries last year for 511 yards and 1 TD. He will probably be the lead in part of a committee. To help replace Harris, they also drafted Kaleb Johnson in the third round out of Iowa. Iowa’s offense was known only for running the ball, so Johnson should bring plenty of experience for a rookie. He is known for his physical running style, which should pair well with Warrens speed.

Another major shakeup on this offense was made to the wide receiver room. There were two major trades in the offseason. The first was when they traded for DK Metcalf from Seattle. Metcalf is a dynamic reciever that the Steelers have been missing since the prime Antonio Brown days. He will provide Rodgers a huge target with blazing speed. The other major trade was the trade of George Pickens to Dallas. For a second there, it looked like Pickens might stay in Pittsburgh and give Rodgers an incredible duo of receivers but it was never going to truly work out. This will be a shot for Calvin Austin III to continue to develop. Last year, he had 548 yards and 4 TDs. This was a vast improvement from his rookie year where he only had 180 yards. He developed some chemistry with Russ Wilson last year. For his sake, he needs to develop a quick chemistry with Rodgers. They also added some veteran depth by signing Robert Woods, Scotty Miller, and Ben Skorenek.

The tight ends will supplement the wide receivers. Pat Freiermuth remains the top target in the red zone for this offense. However, the Steelers managed to pull off another trade and brought in Jonnu Smith from Miami. Smith is a favorite of Arthur Smiths, going back to his OC days in Tennessee. Add in big bodied Darnell Washington, this tight end room is incredibly deep.

The offensive line is going to be the best line that Rodgers has played behind in several years. The combination of left tackle Broderick Jones, left guard Isaac Seumalo, Center Zach Frazier, right guard Mason McCormick, and right tackle Troy Fautanu will provide a strong front five to set up this offense.

Defense

Defense is always the name of the game in Pittsburgh. It is Mike Tomlins specialty. Last year, they were the 6th ranked defense in terms of points allowed. They were allowing an average of 19.1 points per game. This offseason, they have retooled their secondary and were able to come to an agreement with TJ Watt. There are no signs that this defense will slow down.

The line will be led by veteran Cam Heyward. Heyward is currently entrenched in a contract dispute with the front office. However, he has been the steady and consistent veteran on this line for 14 seasons. I am sure that they will figure out a way to get one of the pillars of their franchise on the field. He brings with him 88.5 career sacks and 718 tackles. He will line up with a couple of young players that will be looking to emulate his career. Keeanu Benton is entering his third year in which he will be a full time starter. The Steelers are also optimistic about rookie Derrick Harmon. Harmon was their first round pick out of Oregon. He will look to have an immediate impact on this defense.

The linebackers have historically been the center piece of the Steelers defense. This iteration is no different. On the edge, you have newly extended TJ Watt, who is one of the leagues best edge rushers. When healthy, he can dominate a game and will turn the momentum of a game in just one play. Last year, he had 11.5 sacks and was not healthy throughout. The previous year he recorded 19 sacks. On the other side, he will be joined by Alex Highsmith. Highsmith is an effective pass rusher in his own right. Especially with Watt in the lineup. Highsmith struggled with injuries last year but still managed 6 sacks and 45 tackles. He has been consistent throughout his career when healthy. These two pose a real threat for any offense when they are on the field together. The interior linebackers are Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson. Queen rose to prominence while a member of the Ravens. He signed with the Steelers last year and continued his dominance. He recorded 129 tackles and 1 sack. Wilson started all 17 games in his rookie year last year. He recorded 78 tackles and will look to continue to develop into a typical Steelers linebacker.

The secondary was revamped and it is difficult to envision how any team will be able to move the ball on this team. The trade with Miami brought Jalen Ramsey to Pittsburgh. Ramsey is an All-Pro cornerback with championship pedigree. He is an elite talent who has been a top corner for his entire career. They also added veteran Darius Slay Jr.. Slay is known as “Big Play Slay” for a reason. He has ball hawking tendencies and will lock down his side of the field. Adding these two elite talents to a secondary that already has Joey Porter Jr. seems unfair to the rest of the league. Porter Jr. is a solid corner who has been developing for a few years. The safeties will be DeShon Elliot and Juan Thornhill. Both bring plenty of experience to help solidify this incredibly talented secondary.

Summary

This is an easy pick every year. Do not bet against Mike Tomlin. He has never had a losing season. The line being at 8.5 seems almost insulting to the historical evidence that Tomlin has provided. He has coached a team to victory in one of the toughest divisions in football. This year was a departure from the Steelers’ typical free agency philosophy when they went for the big splash moves. they are pushing all their chips to the middle of the table and are primed for yet another winning season. Bet on the Steelers to win at least 9 games.

Bet – Over 8.5 (-105)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis