The AFC West is shaping up to be one of the best divisions in football this year. From a coaching perspective alone, they have the cream of the crop when you think about Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh, and now Pete Carroll. All of these teams, with perhaps the exception of the Raiders, are in the conversation for a deep playoff run and even Super Bowl. The Chiefs have yet to be knocked out of their top spot and there is little indication that it will happen this year. The Broncos have a lot of analysts excited. The Chargers will be a tough ball club to play, and the Raiders will be improved with a new culture. This should be a fun division to keep an eye on throughout the year.

Division Winner Odds

• Chiefs (-110)
• Broncos (+280)
• Chargers (+330)
• Raiders (+1100)

Kansas City Chiefs – 11.5

• Head Coach – Andy Reid
• OC – Matt Nagy
• DC – Steve Spagnuolo
• 2024 Record – 15-2
• Strength of Schedule – 27th Easiest

2024 was business as usual for the Kansas City Chiefs. They were the top team in the NFL during the regular season with a 15-2 record. Several of those wins were in dramatic fashion, including a blocked field goal against the Denver Broncos. All year, it seemed like they should not be winning games, but they just kept finding a way to get the done. The combination of Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, and Patrick Mahomes was able to cover up a lot of deficiencies for this team. The main one being their offensive line. This issue was eventually exploited in the Super Bowl by the Eagles which led to a blowout loss for the Chiefs. It is a testament to the culture that Kansas City has built that a “bad” season is one that ends in a Super Bowl loss. They have had the time in the offseason to retool and refocus as they look to hoist the Lombardi once more.

Offense

One of the main reasons that the Chiefs have been able to have sustained success has been the continuity that they have maintained. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have been working together for 8 seasons. It is to the point where it should be almost second nature for Mahomes. That being said, last year was the worst statistical year for Mahomes. it was the first time that he failed to break the 4,000-yard mark. He tied his career low for touchdowns. Some would use this as an indication that he is starting to decline. Then they look at the teams record and should realize that the individual stats are not important to these guys. They are about winning Super Bowls and their seasons typically do not really start until after Thanksgiving. Adding some depth to the quarterback position, the Chiefs added Gardner Minshew and Bailey Zappe to the room. Both have started games in the NFL.

The run game has never been a focus of an Andy Reid offense. However, last year, it was necessary to win games. They had to grind wins out using their backs to control the clock. This was made more difficult when Isiah Pacheco suffered an injury early in the year. The slack was picked up by fullback Carson Steele for a bit. Then they signed Kareem Hunt off the couch and Hunt proved to be a workhorse. In 13 regular season games, he ran the ball 200 times for 728 yards and 7 TDs. Pacheco should be back to full strength this year, which provides this rush attack with a very physical 1-2 punch.

The receivers were another area that needed improvement last year. It looked like Rashee Rice was ready to take the league by storm until he suffered a season ending injury. In the offseason, he was involved in a multi-car crash as a result of street racing. He faces a suspension but will be able to play the first four games of the year. Pending his suspension, he will look to pick up where he left off by being the number one for Mahomes in the pass game. In his absence, the Chiefs have a pair of speedy receivers in Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Worthy was a first-round pick in last year’s draft and has blazing speed. He was used as a gadget layer early in the year but started to develop as a reliable receiver as the season progressed. Worthy had 59 catches for 638 yards and 6 TDs. He added 104 yards and 3 TDs in the run game as well. If Rice is suspended, he could once again become the leading receiver for this team. Hollywood Brown has struggled with injuries but when healthy is a fast and reliable receiver that Andy Reid will be able to use in several ways. This receiving corps has the chance to be explosive.

The tight ends are obviously led by Travis Kelce. It does appear as though age might be catching up to Kelce as his stats are declining year over year. He has lost weight in the offseason with the hopes of being quicker and more productive. Last year he had a career low 823 yards and 3 TDs. He is using the Super Bowl loss as fuel to get back to form. His potential successor is Noah Gray who was used more last year than he has been previously. He recorded 40 catches for 437 yards and 5 TDs. All career highs for Gray. This tight end tandem could add some flexibility to this offensive scheme.

The offensive line was an issue last year mainly because they did not have a true left tackle. This was addressed in the draft when the Chiefs took Josh Simmons in the first round. Simmons has impressed early in camp and will hopefully shore up Mahomes’ blindside. At left guard will be Mike Caliendo, at center will be Creed Humphrey, then Trey Smith at right guard, and Jawaan Taylor at right tackle. This group needs to improve if the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl.

Defense

The defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo will always be a physical defense that gets after the quarterback using a dominant front four to create pressure. This iteration of the Chiefs defense is no different. It all starts on the interior with defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones is an All-Pro caliber player but is an aging veteran. He had a down year relative to his prior two seasons. However, Jones is still a major presence that any offensive line needs to account for. Next to him will be veteran Mike Pennel. The edges will be set by George Karlaftis and Mike Danna. Karlaftis recorded 8 sacks last year and continues to establish himself as one of the league’s most under rated pass rushers. Danna is entering his sixth year with the Chiefs and recorded 3.5 sacks last year.

The linebackers are one of the most solid groups in the NFL. this room consists of Drue Tranquil, Nick Bolton, and Leo Chanel. Tranquil recorded 94 total tackles last year and plays a physical brand of defense. Bolton has been a superstar since tacking over the middle. He recorded 106 total tackles last year coming back from an injury plague 2023. In 2022, he recorded 180 total tackles. He fly around the field and is always involved. Chanel is entering his fourth year and has been consistent over the past couple of seasons, recording 60 tackles in each.

Another pillar of a Spag’s defense is having smart and physical defensive backs. It all starts with corner Trent McDuffie. McDuffie gets used all over the field, PFF had him ranked as the 3rd best corner in the league. He is a prototypical Spags corner. Playing alongside him will be Kristian Fulton and Jaylen Watson. Fulton was a free agency signing that brings depth and further versatility to this defense. Watson is coming back from injury and will look to build on his first two solid seasons in this defense.

The safeties for this secondary will be Bryan Cook and Chamarri Conner. Cook is entering his fourth year on this team and will look to build on his best year. He recorded 78 tackles and 2 interceptions in 2024. Connor also had his best year last year, recording 77 tackles and 2 interceptions. He is entering his third year. These guys will solidify the back end of one of the leagues best defenses.

Summary

Despite a potential Super Bowl loser hangover, it would be dumb to bet against the Chiefs winning 11+ games. They proved last year that they are able to find ways to win games despite not playing their best ball. Andy Reid has improved as a coach in situational football and that has trickled down to his roster. They still have Mahomes, who is going to find ways to keep his team in the game no matter what. The defense will be able to pick up the slack of the offense, should it falter again. Spags has this defense coached up well and they return a majority of their starters. Look for the Chiefs to continue their dominant run in the regular season as they try to get back to the top of the mountain.

Bet – Over 11.5 (+110)

Las Vegas Raiders – 6.5

• Head Coach – Pete Carroll
• OC – Chip Kelly
• DC – Patrick Graham
• 2024 Record – 4-13
• Strength of Schedule – 18th Easiest

The 2024 season for the Raiders did go as many Raiders fans had hoped. There was excitement around the promotion of Antonio Pierce from interim head coach to full time head coach. The excitement was short lived as Pierce was thrown into the deep end and was ultimately fired after just one year. I do not think he was given much of a chance. He was trying to win games without a quarterback. There were many issues with this team that was not necessarily his fault but the ownership group decided to go in a different direction. They brought in Pete Carroll to inject some energy into this team and get a winning culture instilled in the building. They brought in a new general manager with the hire of John Spytek. They also brought in a new offensive coordinator by hiring Chip Kelly from Ohio State. There was plenty of roster turnover as well, so lets get into it.

Offense

The headline grabber for the offseason was the trade for quarterback Geno Smith. Smith had his best years in Seattle under Pete Carroll, so the pairing in a new place makes sense. Geno is showing that he has plenty left in the tank over the past several years. He threw for 4320 yards, 21 TDs and 15 ints last year. He would need to cut down on the number of turnovers but he will have a new crop of weapons to throw the ball to in order to continue his career rebirth.

One of the new weapons is going to be rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is one of the more highly anticipated running back prospects this year. He was a dominant force at Boise State and is expected to provide an element that this Raiders team has been missing ever since they let Josh Jacobs go to Green Bay. Backing him up will be a newly signed Raheem Mostert. Mostert is on the tail end of his career but still has plenty of speed and a nose for the end zone.

The receivers will be led by Jakobi Meyers. Meyers has been steadily improving his production over his career. Last year was his best year when he caught 87 balls for 1027 yards and 4 TDs. Playing alongside him will be speedster Tre Tucker. Tucker had 47 catches for 539 yards and 3 TDs last year. They also drafted Dont’e Thorton Jr. out of Tennessee. Thorton is a big, framed receiver that could act as a red zone target for Geno. Past that, they are pretty thin at receiver.

The lack of depth in the receiving room is made up by the tight ends. Brock Bowers burst onto the scene last year and established himself as the true number one receiver despite being a tight end. He caught 112 balls for 1194 yards and 5 TDs He was the team’s leading receiver and will look to build on his dominant rookie year. He is paired with another tight end that was drafted high. Michael Mayer was a second-round pick in 2023 and has yet to live up to his initial hype. With Bowers as the primary tight end and Mayer dealing with injury last year, he only managed 156 receiving yards. If healthy, this tight end duo could be deadly.

The offensive line struggled in 2024. They will look to improve in both pass protection and establishing the run. They have the opportunity to improve this year. Kolton Miller is going to be the cornerstone of the line by providing stability and veteran leadership at left tackle. At left guard, will be Dylan Parham who is looking for his breakout year. At center, it looks like it will be Jordan Meredith. At right guard, they have a position battle but currently has Jackson Powers-Johnson listed as the starter. At right tackle will be DJ Glaze. this group needs to come together if this offense has any chance of improvement.

Defense

This defense will once again be led by defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. Graham is the sole holdover at the coordinator level from previous regimes. He has the luxury of coaching one of the league’s premier pass rushers. Maxx Crosby is one of the best defensive ends in the game. He had an injury riddled year in 2024, so he was only able to play in 12 games and recorded 7.5 sacks. He should be back with a clean bill of health and is ready to wreck offensive game plans. On the other end of the line will be Malcolm Koonce. Koonce had his best year last year when he recorded 8 sacks. The interior of the line took a hit when Christian Wilkins was released due to kissing a teammate. Weirdness aside, the tackles for the line will be Jonah Laulu and Adam Butler. Laulu is entering his second year and will have the chance to make his mark with the departure of Wilkins. Butler is a veteran that brings experience.

The linebackers are all newly signed free agents. Germaine Pratt was brought in from Cincinatti. Pratt was a tackling machine in Cincy and Las Vegas hopes that he brings that same physicality to this defense. In the middle, they signed veteran Elandon Roberts. Roberts has spent time in New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh. They also brought in Devin White from Houston. White was part of the Super Bowl winning Bucs defense. He is coming off of an injury. This linebacking corps has plenty of experience and should center this defense. Adding some intrigue in terms of names was the signing of Jamal Adams. Adams was a former safety that spent time with Pete Carrol. He is now a converted linebacker and will bring some speed and versatility.

The secondary got a makeover as well. Their starting corners will be Darien Porter, Eric Stokes, and Darnay Holmes. Porter is a rookie out of Iowa State. Stokes has struggled with injury in his four-year career. Now entering his fifth year, he will look to assert himself as a starter. Holmes was a bubbe player in New York but has found a home in Las Vegas. He has some familiarity with Grahams scheme from last year and from 2020-2021 in New York.

The safeties will be a physical presence led by Jeremy Chinn. Chinn had a bounce back year last year in Washington. He was once seen as one of the best young safeties in the game. then he dealt with injury from 2022-2023. Now, he hopes to bring some veteran leadership to this young secondary room. The other safety will be Isiah Pola-Moa. Pola Moa had a career high 89 tackles last year and will be looking o improve this year.

Summary

There was a lot of turnover for this team in the offseason. They essentially have a brand-new coaching staff, a new GM, and a new quarterback. Pete Carroll is being tasked with turning this team around at the young age of 73. He still brings a ton of energy and should be ablet o make an immediate impact on this team. They are undeniably thin at several position groups. The wide receivers, offensive line, and secondary are all groups that would be a cause for concern. However, now that this team has proper coaching, I believe that Pete should be able to guide them to a better record than the previous couple of years. 6.5 wins seems a little low. Given the tough division that they play in, I could see why the line is as low as it is. This will be a rebuild year for the Raiders, but they will be more competitive than people are expecting.

Bet – Over 6.5 (-125)

Denver Broncos – 9.5

• Head Coach – Sean Payton
• OC – Joe Lombardi
• DC – Vance Joseph
• 2024 Record – 10-7
• Strength of Schedule – 14th Easiest

The 2024 Broncos surprised everyone with their success last year. They drafted quarterback Bo Nix in the first round, which drew some criticism. By the end of the season, no one was criticizing the pick anymore. the Broncos went 10-7 and earned a wild card spot. They lost to the Bills, but it was a great year for the Sean Payton Broncos. They were led by their stout defense, which was 3rd in points allowed. They only allowed an average of 18.3 points per game. That gave plenty of flexibility for the offense. However, Payton was able to scheme up an effective offense that was 10th in points scored. they did so primarily through the air as the run game struggled. This offseason, they made some moves to address the deficiencies and are now a preseason favorite for a lot of NFL talking heads.

Offense

Sean Payton handpicked his quarterback in last year’s draft. He picked Bo Nix and had him start right away. It was a bit of a slow start as they started 0-2 and Nix threw 4 interceptions. They started to turn things around and Nix put together a very good rookie year. He threw for 3775 yards, 29 TDs and 12 ints. He also ran for 430 yards and 4 TDs. You can add in a receiving TD as well. From a fan perspective, he performed as well as anyone could have hoped and showed Broncos fans that the future could be bright.

One area that needed an upgrade was the run game. The leading rusher was Javonte Williams with 513 yards. He is no longer on the team. They brought in J.K Dobbins from the Chargers on a 1-year deal. Dobbins showed flashes of his old explosiveness last year and had a career high in rush yards. He went for 905 yards and 9 TDs. He has struggled with injury in his career and last year was no different as he only appeared in 13 games. Taking Dobbins’ injury history into account, they also added R.J Harvey in this year’s draft. Harvey out of UCF, has the chance to earn himself the top back in an offense that is praying for a running back.

While the run game struggled, the pass game started to flourish. For the first time in years, Courtland Sutton was fully healthy. Sutton has always been in the conversation for one of the more underrated receivers. He once again established himself as a top guy by catching 81 balls for 1081 yards and 8 TDs. He earned himself a four-year contract extension, signaling a commitment to him as the receiver for the near future. The other receivers joining him will be Marvin Mims Jr and Troy Franklin. Mims is an exciting player that Payton loves to get the ball to in various ways. He is used down field, in motion, and in the run game. Troy Franklin worked himself into the WR3 spot with 263 yards and 2 TDs. He will be working to continue to grow in this Denver offense.

This offense got another versatile athlete for Payton to use when they signed tight end Evan Engram. Engram could potentially play that “joker” role that Payton loves to run (see Taysom Hill). Engram isa dynamic player that can do damage in the pass game. He struggled with injuries last year but prior to that, he was a main target for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. In 2023, he was targeted 143 times and went for 963 yards. Payton will certainly find a way to use him in this offense. They also still have Adam Trautman, who has been with Payton since their Saints days. He adds in stability and veteran leadership.

The offensive line was a point of strength last year and will most likely continue to be so this year. They are essentially bringing back the exact same lineup, which is always great for continuity. They will have Garrett Bolles at left tackle, Ben Powers at left guard, Luke Wattenburg at center, Quinn Meinerz at right guard, and Mike McGlinchey at right tackle. This is a great group wand will certainly help this team reach the next level.

Defense

The defense was one of the best defenses in the league last year. this year, they are looking to be THE best defense in the league. They have the talent to get the job done. It is scary to think that they probably got even better in the offseason. It will be yet another year in the Vance Joseph system, which again points to the continuity that the Broncos are building.

The defensive line secured their leader for the near future this offseason. Defensive end Zach Allen was signed to a four-year $102 million extension. He has been a force o be reckoned with ever since signing with the Broncos in 2023. He had a career high 8.5 sacks and 61 tackles last year. His dominance in the run game and pass rush cannot be understated, and he will continue to be a huge part of this defensive unit’s success moving forward. He is joined on the line by D.J Jones at nose tackle and John Franklin-Meyers at the other defensive end spot. Jones has been a consistent performer in the middle of this defense for the past three years. Franklin-Meyers is coming off of his best statistical year with 7 sacks and 40 tackles. The edge rushers for this team will be Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto. Cooper had 10.5 sacks last year. Meanwhile Bonitto recorded 13.5 sacks. This pair coming off the edge will help the Broncos reach their goal of having the best defense in the league.

The interior linebackers got a big boost with the signing of Dre Greenlaw from the 49ers. When healthy in San Fran, he was one of the most reliable middle linebackers int he game, He only played 2 games last year and his absence was notable for the defense. He will line up next to Alex Singleton, who is also coming back from an injury. Singelton was a tackling monster in 2023 when fully healthy. He recorded 177 total tackles and 2 sacks. He only played three games last year but with a clean bill of health, will create a dynamic pairing with Greenlaw in the middle.

The secondary is another star-studded group on this defense. Patrick Surtain II won defensive player of the year last year. He is regarded as one of, if not the, best corner in the NFL today. He shut down number one receivers all last year while adding four picks and one touchdown. He is joined by Riley Moss, who had his breakout year last season. He recorded 86 total tackles and 1 int. They will also have Ja’Quan McMillian, who has been just as solid of a corner.

The Broncos signed another 49er player to this defense. They signed safety Talanoa Hufanga, who has been struggling to stay healthy but is solid when healthy. He is joined by Brandon Jones, who had 115 tackles and 3 ints last year. If he can replicate that production, and Hufanga can stay healthy, it is hard to see how any team is going to be able to move the ball on this defense.

Summary

Sean Payton has already turned this team around into a playoff team. With some people choosing them to win the Super Bowl this year, expectations are higher than they have been ever since Peyton Manning retired. Whether or not they are able to win the Super Bowl will be determined by how they match up against a tough AFC heavy schedule in the playoffs. For the purposes of the regular season, they should be able to continue their success of last year. Their defense will be one of the best in the league. The continuity of the team at large points to further success. Bo Nix should be able to build on his rookie season as he grows more comfortable with Sean Paytons offense. Bet the Broncos to win more than 9 games.

Bet – Over 9.5 (+100)

Los Angeles Chargers – 9.5

• Head Coach – Jim Harbaugh
• OC – Greg Roman
• DC – Jesse Minter
• 2024 Record – 11-6
• Strength of Schedule – 15th Easiest

Jim Harbaugh had an immediate impact on this franchise in his first year as head coach. He and his staff turned a struggling team into a hard nosed winning one. After going 5-12 in 2023 under the previous staff, the Harbaugh led Chargers went 11-6 and earned themselves a playoff berth. Their season ended in disappointing fashion with a wild card loss to the Houston Texans. However, it was a great start to the “rebuild” and the Chargers are now in a position to go on another playoff run. They bring back the same coaching staff and will continue to build a physical team.

Offense

Justin Herbert was one of the main reasons that Jim Harbaugh was excited about coming to the Chargers. The impact of the coaching was seen throughout the year. Herbert did not pot any career highs, but he posted a very important career low. He only threw 3 interceptions during the regular season. His previous low was 7 in 2023 and that was a season in which he only played 13 games. Harbaugh’s offensive philosophy was to establish the run and have the quarterback take care of the football. Herbert was able to mesh with this philosophy as we saw his confidence grow. This game plan was obviously able to win them 11 games but if there was ever a game where they were unable to run the ball, Herbert struggled. This is what led to the blowout loss in the playoffs.

In seemingly an effort to avoid this very issue, the Chargers retooled their running back room. They signed Najee Harris from the Steelers in free agency. Harris was involved in a fireworks incident that affected one of his eyes, so he may miss some time. However, he brings a physical style of running that will fit the Harbaugh philosophy. Harris has not run for less than 1000 yards in any of his four years in Pittsburgh. His consistency and physical style will help the Chargers establish the run. He will be splitting carries with newly drafted Omarion Hampton. Hampton was the first-round draft pick for the Chargers out of North Carolina. He has plenty of hype surrounding him as most first round picks do. Given the play style of this offense, he should be getting a heavy workload, and we will be able to see what he can do in the NFL.

The Chargers struck gold in the second round of last years draft when they selected Ladd McConkey out of Georgia. McConkey burst onto the scene with 82 catches for 1149 yards and 7 TDs. He was the leading receiver in terms of receptions and yards. Behind him, they are pretty thin. Quentin Johnston has struggled with drops ever since coming into the league. He was shaken up in the preseason and is being evaluated for a concussion. In an effort to backfill some depth, they brought back long time Charger Keenan Allen. Allen will provide a familiar target for Herbert this year and a reliable set of hands. The Chargers are also hopeful that Tre Harris out of Ole Miss will be another second round find for them At the tight end position, they will have Will Dissly who ad 50 catches for 481 yards and 2 TDs. He proved to be a useful safety blanket for Herbert last year.

The offensive line is a major strength for this team. They are big, physical, and talented. that being said, it suffered a huge blow when their left tackle, Rashawn Slater, went down with a season ending injury. That means that Joe Alt will be moved from right tackle to left tackle. At left guard will be Bradley Bozeman, the center will be Zion Johnson, the right guard will be Mekhi Becton, and Trey Pepkins III will take over at right tackle. This big physical group will look to continue to set the tone for the run game of this offense.

Defense

This defense was the best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. They were allowing just 17.7 points per game. They just have a group of guys that know what their jobs are and how to do them. Up front, the line is set with Da’Shawn Hand, Teair Tart, and Otito Ogbonnia. Hand was brought in from the Dolphins in free agency. He has played for six seasons and provides a big body to stuff the run. Tart joined the Chargers last year and added some much neded physicality up front. Ogbonnia is entering his second year as a full time starter and will look to build on a solid 2024 season.

The edge rushers for this team will be Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. Mack is an All-Pro caliber player who has been a dominant defender throughout his career. Despite being 34, he recently signed an $18 million extension in the offseason. Tuipulotu will be filling the shoes of recently departed Joey Bosa. Tuipulotu has played for the Chargers for two seasons and recorded 8.5 sacks last year.

The interior linebackers will be Daiyan Henley and Denzel Perryman. Henley had his breakout year last year where he had 147 tackles and 10.5 run stuffs. He flies around the field and solidifies the middle. Perryman is a solid veteran who provides a wealth of experience.

The corners for this team will be Donte Jackson, Cam Hart, and Terheeb Still. Jackson was signed after he spent a year with the Steelers. He will be the veteran presence in a young corners room. Hart and Still are both entering their second years after solid rookie campaigns. The safeties are anchored by one of the best in the business. Derwin James is showing that he still has the juice at the ripe old age of 29. He is the leader of this defense and sets the tone for a physical style of play in the secondary. He is joined by Alohi Gilman who has been with the Chargers since 202 and brings his own solid production.

Summary

The addition of Jim Harbaugh immediately established a more physical identity for the Chargers. They set out with the goal to be a run first offense and a stout defense. They accomplished both of these goals and it helped them earned a spot in the playoffs last year. Now, they are looking to build on the strong foundation that they have built. They will once again be buoyed by their stingy defense and with additions to the running backs room, will have a new identity in the run game. The cause for concern with this team will be if they are able to overcome leads and the fact that they play in one of the toughest divisions in football. I believe that they will continue their success and win at least 10 games.

Bet – Over 9.5 (+115)

*Odds taken from Fanduel

*Strength of Schedule from Sharp Analysis