Division Winner Odds

• Buccaneers (+100)
• Falcons (+210)
• Panthers (+420)
• Saints (+1300)

Atlanta Falcons – 8.5

• Head Coach – Raheem Morris
• OC – Zac Robinson
• DC – Jeff Ulbrich
• 2024 Record – 8-9
• Strength of Schedule – 4th Easiest

The 2024 season for the Falcons was one of unfulfilled expectations. They swung big by signing Kirk Cousins and then drafting Michael Penix in the first round. They were never really able to get themselves going and sustain success for more than a couple of weeks. They got off to an up and down start and by week 9, it looked like they had finally figured it out. They were 6-3 and were positioned at the top of the NFC South. Then they went downhill fast. They lost 4 games in a row, which led to the eventual benching of Kirk Cousins and brought about the Michael Penix era. They ultimately finished the season at 8-9 and failed to make the playoffs. Despite the struggles of their quarterback play, the offense was not the sole problem for this team. The defense was towards the bottom of the rankings in term of points allowed. They were ranked 23rd in the NFL by allowing 24.9 points per game. Looking at the roster moves made in the offense, they committed to improving their defense. With a new quarterback and a new focus on defense, the Falcons might be primed to finally make the playoffs.

Offense

Michael Penix Jr. will be the starting quarterback for the Falcons come Week 1. Last year, he appeared in 5 games and started the last 3. He was 1-2 as a starter and threw for 775 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 Ints. He also added 1 touchdown on the ground. He only completed 58% of his passes, which might be a cause for concern, but he will have a much better sample size this year. If Penix does not pan out as planned, Kirk Cousins will be the backup and could pick this offense up again. It will be interesting to see how this all pans out with an already talented offensive roster.

The person who is going to be drawing most of the attention on this offense will be running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is entering his third year in the league and is already being talked about as one of the next great backs. He ran for 1456 yards and 14 TDs last year. He was also productive in the pass game, where he caught 61 balls for 431 yards and a TD. The offense will most likely run through him. Especially with a new quarterback, they will continue to feed Robinson the ball. He is going to split some carries with Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is entering his fourth year and has been a solid RB2. He has run for over 600 yards in the past 2 seasons.

The pass game is going to be supported by a talented group of receivers. Drake London is their number one receiver. Last year was his best year since being drafted. He caught 100 balls for 1271 and 9 TDs. These were all career bests. With Penix as the starter, he was targeted 13 times a game, which was much higher than when Kirk was the quarterback. With another year of chemistry, we will see if this was a flash in the pan or if London is poised to take his game to another level with Penix. Pairing with him with be Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III. Mooney had a bit of a career renaissance in his first year in Atlanta. He caught 64 balls for 992 yards and 5 TDs. He had not even broken the 500-yard mark over the last two years. McCloud had a career year in his first season in Atlanta. He was previously a return guy and a special teamer. Last year, he recorded 62 catches for 686 yards and 1 TDs. These three are a dynamic trio of receivers that will make life for Penix much easier.

Adding to the receiving threat will be tight end Kyle Pitts. As every fantasy owner probably knows, everyone is waiting for Pitts to live up to his high draft pick in 2021. Last year, he had 47 catches for 602 yards and 4 TDs. Maybe this will be the year for Pitts to live up to his hype.

The offensive line is a cause for concern as injuries have ravished this unit. Their starting right tackle, Kaleb McGary, suffered a leg injury and is expected to miss time. Their swing tackle, Storm Norton, is also hurt so it looks like Brandon Parker will be the guy to step up. Or it will fall to seventh round rookie, Jack Nelson, to step up. With the right side being the blind side for Penix, this position will be vital to the success of this offense. The rest of the line will be Jake Matthews at left tackle, Matthew Bergeron at left guard, Ryan Neuzil at center, and Chris Lindstrom at right guard. This group will be the key to success for this offense.

Defense

The defense that struggled last year got a new coordinator. They fired Jimmy Lake and decided to hire Jeff Ulbrich from the Jets. Ulbrich was the coordinator for a revered Jets defense, so the Falcons are hoping that he can turn this Falcons team around.

The defensive line will be made up of Zach Harrison, Ruke Orhorhoro, and David Onyemata. Harrison is entering his third year. He recorded 26 tackles and 1 sack last year. Orhorhoro is a second-year player that only appeared in eight games last season. Onyemata is the vet of the group and is entering his 10th year. This group will need to step up to solidify the middle and stuff the run.

The edge rushers will be the outside linebackers Leonard Floyd and Arnold Ebiketie. Floyd was signed to a 1-year deal this offseason. He adds veteran leadership and production to this defense that struggled to sack the quarterback. Floyd is a 10 year vet that can still produce. He had 8.5 sacks last year in San Francisco. Ebiketie is entering his 4th year and had 6 sacks in each of the last 2 seasons. He will have a chance to improve with the new scheme and the presence of Floyd on the other side of the line. They also drafted a project player in the first round by picking Jalon Walker out of Georgia.

The interior linebackers will be Kaden Elliss and Divine Deablo. Elliss is a veteran backer who had a career high 151 total tackles and 5 sacks last year. Deablo was brought in as a free agent. He spent the past 4 years as a Raider and has been a productive player. These two will look to take over the middle of the field.

The corners are a talented group led by A.J Terrell and Dee Alford. Terrell had 2 picks last year and 66 total tackles. Terrell has typically followed the number one receiver but that might change with the new defensive scheme. Alford is entering his fourth year after posting a career high 83 total tackles last year. He works as a solid option working with Terrell. They will also have Mike Hughes, who is entering his seventh season and is a veteran leader.

The safeties will be Jessie Bates III and Jordan Fuller. Bates is one of the best safeties in the league. His impact has been immediate since coming to the Falcons two years ago. He has recorded over 100 total tackles in both years and had 6 and 4 interceptions un each respective season. He will continue to be the leader of this defense and create turnovers. Fuller was signed as a free agent and will bring a good solid second option for this safety room.

Summary

The Falcons are trying to live up to expectations of just a year ago. They have a talented roster (on paper) but have yet to put it together on the field. Their defense was unable to help win games for them down the stretch. They made some veteran additions to the defense and brought in a new coordinator to make up for last year. They have a weak schedule on paper, but the Falcons tend to find ways to disappoint. I believe that the offensive line will cause issues for their offense, and a new defensive scheme will take a little bit of time to settle in. I would take the under for the Falcons.

Bet – Under 8.5 (-140)

Carolina Panthers – 6.5

• Head Coach – Dave Canales
• OC – Brad Idzik
• DC – Ejiro Evero
• 2024 Record – 5-12
• Strength of Schedule – 7th Easiest

The Panthers are still in a rebuild mode. The first year of the Dave Canales did not see much progress in the win column. They went from 2-15 to 5-12. Canales was thought to be the solution to their offense and to their quarterback situation. Their offense was ranked 23rd in points per game, with 20.1 points a game. Their quarterback situation was rocky throughout the year. After just two weeks, he benched former first overall pick Bryce Young. Young was just in his second year but was not showing the improvement that the needed. He was later reinstated as the full-time starter, and he showed the improvement that everyone was hoping for. He played so much better down the stretch that it gave this team a glimmer of hope for the future.

Offense

Bryce Young had to go through some adversity last year. Once he was reinstated as the starter, he started to play better. He won a couple of games against the Saints and the Giants. He went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and almost pulled off the upset. By the end of the year, he ended with 2,403 yards, 15 TDs, and 9 ints. Now, as the full-time starter, he is looking to improve on his numbers and help the Panthers win more than just 5 games.

While the quarterback situation was unsettled, the Panthers found that they had a franchise running back. Chuba Hubbard started to thrive in this Dave Caneles offense. He had a career year by rushing for 1195 yards and 10 TDs. Both of these were career highs for Hubard. His play on the field led to a contract extension that solidified him as the running back of the future.

The wide receivers got a youth boost over the past couple of years. They have three young receivers with not a lot of experience. Last year, they drafted Xavier Legget in the first round. They also signed Jalen Coker, who was an undrafted free agent. This year, they drafted Tetairoa McMillan with the 8th overall pick. This receiving corps does have tremendous upside, but it is mainly a product of their untapped potential. Their tight end, Tommy Tremble, was recently activated off the PUP list. He had 23 catches for 234 yards and 2 TDs last year.

The offensive line will see most of their starters return. Their line will be Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle, Damien Lewis at left guard, Austin Corbett at center, Robert Hunt at right guard, and Taylor Morton at right tackle. This group was a strength for this team last year as they were able to support a strong run game. With another year of playing together, they have potential to improve this year.

Defense

This defense was ranked dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game. They allowed an average of 31.4 points per game. They decided to keep their defensive coordinator and will bank on the continuity helping to improve their performance this year.

The defensive line will be made up of A’Shawn Robinson, Bobby Brown III, and Derrick Brown. Robinson is entering his 10th year in the NFL and his second as part of this Carolina defense. he had a career high 5.5 sacks and 80 tackles last year. Bobby Brown is a big nose tackle that was brought in from the LA Rams. He spent four years in LA and started all 17 games last year. Derrick Brown is coming back from an injury last year. Prior to that, he had his best year as a Panther. He recorded 103 tackles and 2 sacks. This defense line has the experience and the production to be a solid front for this defense.

The edge rushers will be the outside linebackers Patrick Jones II and D.J Wonnum. Jones was signed in free agency. He spent the past four years in Minnesota. Last year, he recorded a career high 39 tackles and 7 sacks. Wonnum is entering his fifth year. He is coming back from injury this year after only playing eight games last year. These two have the chance to make a name for themselves with such a solid interior defensive line.

The interior linebackers will be Christian Rozeboom and Trevin Wallace. Rozeboom was signed in free agency this offseason. He has been playing for the LA Rams for the past three years. Last year, Rozeboom posted his best year yet with 135 total tackles and 6.5 run stuffs. The Panthers are hoping that he brings this level of production to this defense. Wallace is a second-year player that had 64 total tackles and 3 run stuffs in his rookie year.

The starting corners for this team will be Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Chau Smith-Wade. Horn is regarded as one of the best young corners in the league. The Panthers obviously agree and gave him a big extension this offseason. After battling with injuries through the first three seasons of his career, he managed to play in 15 games this past year and is obviously a key part of their future. Jackson is entering his second year as part of the Panthers. He provides a solid veteran presence to this secondary. Smith-Wade is a second-year player that is listed as the nickel.

The safeties will be Tre’von Moehrig and Nick Scott. Moehrig is a four-year vet and a big signing in free agency for the Panthers. He spent the first four years of his career in Las Vegas. He had his most productive year last year with 104 total tackles and 2 interceptions. Scott is a six-year veteran that is looking to pair well with Moehrig this year. He only played 10 games last year and is looking to have a bigger impact on the field this year.

Summary

The Panthers ended last year on an upswing but were still unable to win many games. The jury is still out on whether or not Bryce Young is the guy that the Panthers are hoping that he will be. He is surrounded by young talent which could mean it will take some time for the entire offense to develop. The defense for the Panthers did not make too many moves in the offseason to improve after being the most scored on defense in 2024. Despite a schedule that is projected to be on the easier side, it is hard to see where the 7 wins come from.

Bet – Under 6.5 (+110)

New Orleans Saints – 4.5

• Head Coach – Kellen Moore
• OC – Doug Nussmeier
• DC – Brandon Staley
• 2024 Record – 5-12
• Strength of Schedule – 3rd Easiest

The Saints had a tough year in 2024. They fired their head coach after 9 games. They lost their starting quarterback, Derek Carr, to injury and eventual retirement. Not much went right for this team past week two. I put it that way because they were the best offense in the league for th efirst two weeks of the year. They put up 47 and 44 points in those weeks. After injuries and the firring of Denis Allen, they ended up averaging 19.9 points per game, which was 24th in the league. The defense was not much better. they were allowing 23.4 points per game, which ranked 19th. They brought in a new coaching staff with the hiring of Kellen Moore. Moore was the offensive coordinator for the super bowl champions and has been in head coaching hiring conversations since his days as the Dallas OC. Now, he gets a chance to put his own stamp on a team.

Offense

Moore is starting off his coaching career with his first major decision. He named Spencer Rattler as the starting quarterback after drafting Tyler Shough in this years draft. Rattler is entering his second year after being drafted in the fifth round of last years draft. He started 6 games last year once Carr went down with injury. He went 0-6 in those games. He threw for 1317 yards, 4 TDs, and 5 ints. That does not inspire much confidence but Kellen Moore might be able to put him in better situations than last year’s coaching staff. Should Rattler not live up to expectations, Shough will be waiting in the wings for his chance to start.

One reason that Rattler and Moore should feel good about this offense would be the presence of Alvin Kamara. Moore likes to establish the run in his play calling, which would mean that Kamara could be in for a big year. For such a dynamic back, it is crazy that he has never rushed for over 1000 yards. Last year was his closet, when he ran for 950 yards in just 14 games. With this new system, he could finally break that barrier. He will be backed up by Keandre Miller who has struggled to get playing time in his first two years.

The receiving corps will be made up of Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks. Olave had very productive years in his first two seasons in the NFL. He went over 1000 yards in each. Last year, he was injured and only played in 8 games. He will be the top target as he looks to get back on track this year. Shaheed is the deep threat for this team. Formerly a returner, he has blazing speed to get behind a defense. His season was also cut short last year due to injury. Cooks was signed in free agency and returns to the team that drafted him. He has been a productive receiver on every team that he has played on and brings veteran leadership with him back to New Orleans.

The tight end will be Juwan Johnson. Johnson was the leading receiver last year for this team. With so many injuries to the receivers, it was bound to happen. He had 548 yards and 3 TDs. That is not impressive for a team leading receiver but a solid season for a tight end. Also listed in this group is Taysom Hill. Hill is used in various roles but is starting this year on the injury list.

The offensive line will be Kelvin Banks at left tackle, Trevor Penning at left guard, Erik McCoy at center, Cesar Ruiz at right guard, and Taliese Fuaga at right tackle. this is a young group that will be tasked with setting the physicality for the run game so that this Kellen Moore offense can run the ball.

Defense

The defense will also have a new play caller with the hiring of Brandon Staley. Staley was a successful defensive coordinator prior to his rocky time as a head coach of the Chargers. He actually hired Moore as his offensive coordinator in his last year as the Chargers head coach. So, these two have a working relationship already. He is tasked with taking a solid roster and having them reach their potential.

The defensive line will be made up of Cameron Jordan, Davon Godchaux, and Bryan Bresee. Jordan is one of the best defensive players in the league. He is the longstanding veteran on this defense and is the reliable player on this line. Godchaux was signed in the offseason and brings 8 years of experience. He has spent 4 years in Miami and New England and has been a solid contributor in both stops. Bresee is a third-year player that had 7.5 sacks last year and is looking to improve on those numbers.

The edges will be set by outside linebackers Carl Granderson and Chase Young. Granderson had 61 total tackles and 5.5 sacks last year. He is entering his 7th year on the Saints and has been continuing to improve each year. Young is trying to reset his career in NEw Orlean. The former 1st round pick has not lived up to his draft hype. After 5 years in the league, he remains a solid pass rusher. He recorded 5.5 sacks last year.

The interior line backers will be Pete Werner and Demario Davis. Werner has become a consistent player for this defense. He recorded 92 tackles last year in just 13 games. Davis is an all-star linebacker who has found the fountain of youth. The 36-year-old had 136 total tackles last year and is showing no signs of slowing down.

The starting corners for this team will be Alonte Taylor, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Isaac Yiadom. Taylor will be asked to step up this year with the departure of Paulson Adebo. He is a fourth year player that had 89 tackles last year. McKinstry is entering his second year out of Alabama. He is still looking for his first career interception. Yiadom is a veteran who returns to the Saints after a year with the 49ers.

The safeties got a boost this year with the signing of Justin Reid. Reid was signed in free agency after three years in Kansas City. He brings veteran leadership, championship pedigree, and a smart/tough playing style to this team. He will play alongside Julian Blackmon, who was signed after spending 5 years with the Colts. These two will form a good tandem to solidify the back end of this defense.

Summary

This Saints team is being picked by many to be the worst team in football. Given the fact that they were able to win 5 games last year with all of their adversity, I think that they will be slightly better than people think. They have a new coach on each side of the ball, which will lead to some struggles. However, given the fact that this roster has talent coming back from injury, I believe that they will be able to win at least 5 games against the 3rd easiest projected schedule.

Bet – Over 4.5(-130)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9.5

• Head Coach – Todd Bowles
• OC – Josh Grizzard
• DC – Todd Bowles
• 2024 Record – 10-7
• Strength of Schedule – 10th Easiest

The 2024 Bucs went 10-7 and won their fourth straight NFC South division title. They showed a level of toughness that is expected of a team led by Todd Bowles. Their offense was a gritty and exciting group to watch. They scored 29.5 points per game, which ranked them 4th in the league. Their defense was ranked 16th in terms of points allowed. They allowed 22.6 points per game. After battling through an injury filled regular season, they got healthy as they went into the playoffs. They looked like a team that could go on a deep run but were upset by the Commanders in the wild card round, losing 23-20. In the offseason, they lost their offensive coordinator to a head coaching job and retooled their roster.

Offense

Under Liam Coen, this offense became one of the highest scoring in the NFL. With Coen coaching the Jaguars, the Bucs elevated Josh Grizzard from passing coordinator to offensive coordinator. Grizzard is only 35 years old but has been in the NFL since he was 27. He will have a very talented roster to work with.

His quarterback will be Baker Mayfield. Mayfield had his best year as a pro last year. He threw for 4500 yards, 41 TDs and 16 ints. The yards and touchdowns were both career highs. He will have to learn yet another offense this year with a new offensive coordinator. This will be his 7th offensive coordinator in his career. He has clearly shown the ability to learn new systems and should be able to pick this new offense up quickly.

The running game for the Bucs are led by two great running backs. They have a great 1-2 punch with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Irving burst onto the scene as a rookie last year when he ran for 1122 yards and 8 TDs. He added 392 receiving yards as well. He started off as the second string running back but ran his way into the starting role by years end. Rachaad White took a back seat but still ran for 613 yards and 3 TDs. Having these two options to hand the ball to makes the rest of this offense click.

The receivers for this Bucs team are as good as any group in the NFL. They are still led by Mike Evans, who is as consistent as they come. Evans has been in the league for 11 years and has gone over 1000 yards in each season. The offense as a whole takes pride in this streak, as shown by them electing to throw him the ball in a kneel down situation in week 18 last year. He returns for a 12th year to try and keep the streak alive. He is joined by veteran Chris Godwin who, when healthy, is one of the best WR2s in the league. However, he is dealing with an ankle injury going into the year. That just heightens the profile for newly drafted Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka was a first round pick out of Ohio State. There is plenty of excitement around this rookie and with Godwins injury, he will have the chance to produce right away.

The tight end for this team will be Cade Otton. Otton had his best season last year when he caught 59 balls for 600 yards and 4 TDs. Otton has shown to be a reliable receiving threat. He is currently dealing with an injury that may affect his week 1 availability. Backing him up is Payne Durham who has been used mainly as a blocking tight end.

The offensive line was one of the better lines in the NFL last year. They have Tristan Wirfs at left tackle, Ben Bredeson at left guard, Graham Barton at center, Coday Mauch at right guard, and Luke Goedeke at right tackle.

Defense

The defense is going to be called by Todd Bowles. Bowles made his name as a defensive coordinator and will be taking over play calling duties this year. His defensive line will be made up of Calijah Kancey, Vita Vea, and Logan Hall. Vita Vea is the center piece of the defensive line. He is a dominant force at nose tackle. He is entering his 8th season on the team. He earned his second pro bowl last year. He is a huge 347 lbs. and poses a huge problem for any team trying to run the ball. Kancey is entering his third year after having 7.5 sacks in 2024. Hall is entering his fourth year and has been a solid contributor over the past three years.

The edge rushers for this defense will be outside linebackers Yaya Diaby and Hassan Reddick. Diaby is a third-year player who had 4.5 sacks last year. Reddick was a big free agent signing for this team. Reddick had a tumultuous year last year with the Jets. Prior to the saga with the Jets, he was a force to be reckoned with when rushing the passer. He had posted four straight years with double digit sacks. He should return to form in this defense this year.

The interior linebackers will be led by veteran Lavonte David. David is entering his 14th year as the middle linebacker for the Bucs. The future hall of fame player is model of consistency. He recorded 122 totaled tackles and 5.5 sacks last year. He has yet to show that his production will slow down. He is joined by Sirvocea Dennis. Dennis is a third year player that is coming back from injury. He only played 4 games last year.

The starting corners will be Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum, and Jacob Parrish. Dean is a six-year veteran who had 59 tackles and 1 interception last year. McCollum is a fourth-year player coming off of his best year last season. He recorded 82 tackles and 2 interceptions. He will look to continue to improve this year. Parrish is a rookie who will line up as the nickel and rotational corner.

The starting safeties will be Antoine Winfield and Tykee Smith. Winfield was injured last year but when healthy, is a great safety. in 2023, he recorded 122 totalt tackles, 6 sacks, and 3 interceptions. He can be used all over the field and gives this defense versatility. Smith is entering his second year on the team after playing 13 games in his rookie year. He is looking to make a name for himself on this talented defense.

Summary

The Bucs should repeat as division winners. They may have to contend with the Falcons but between their talented offense and improved defense, they have the roster to make another playoff push. Even with injuries mounting last year, they managed to find ways to win games. This year, they might struggle with a new offensive coordinator, but the offense has the veteran leadership and talent to overcome those types of changes. With a weak division and a schedule that looks to be on the easier side, I think you can get incredible value when betting on the Bucs to win 10+ games.

Bet – Over 9.5 (+100)