The AFC South has belonged to the Texans for the past two years. Looking at the remaining three teams, it is not difficult to see why. The Colts, Jaguars, and Titans are all in rebuilding modes and are still struggling to get on the right side of .500. The Colts have a new quarterback, which has been a trend ever since the retirement of Andrew Luck. The Jaguars have a new coach and general manager that are looking to put their stamp on the franchise and turn it around. The Titans had the number one pick this past year and are still figuring out how to surround their new franchise quarterback with enough talent to win games. Let’s see what each team did in the offseason to improve their roster.

Division Winner Odds

• Texans (+115)
• Jaguars (+260)
• Colts (+350)
• Titans (+700)

Indianapolis Colts – 7.5

• Head Coach – Shane Steichen
• OC – Jim Bob Cooter
• DC – Lou Anarumo
• 2024 Record – 8-9
• Strength of Schedule – 12th Easiest

The 2024 season for the Colts was an odd one. They seemed very optimistic with the elevation of Anthony Richardson to full time starter. He finally had a clean bill of health and had enough talent around him to make the offense work. However, his inconsistent play led to a benching and allowed Joe Flacco to see significant playing time. The offense continued to struggle and ultimately finished as the 17th best scoring offense, averaging 22.2 points per game. The defense led by Gus Bradley was not good. They were 24th in points allowed, allowing 25.1 points per game. They were one of the worst run defenses in the league and just could not help out their offense. Bradley was fired and the Colts brought in Lou Anarumo. The Colts finished 8-9 after a disappointing year and it seems like the coaching staff and general managers are trying to keep their jobs as their seats heat up. Adding into the potential organization issues was the death of owner Jim Irsay. The running of the team was passed to his daughters. They know that they have taken over a team that has not been performing up to the standard that everyone expects.

Offense

The starting quarterback for the Colts will no longer be Anthony Richardson. The Colts brought in veteran Daniel Jones to compete for the job. Jones is fresh out of New York by way of a short stint in Minnesota. Jones is looking to reset his career after it seemingly blew up while he was a Giant. He was given a huge contract and struggled to live up to it. Now in Indy, he won the starting job in camp and is looking to be another quarterback in the league that makes the most of their second opportunity. When Daniel Jones is healthy and playing well, he has shown that he can led a team to the playoffs. However, as Giants fans can attest, the playoff Daniel Jones is long gone, and we lost faith quite some time ago. With a new head coach, Jones may e able to tturn things around. If he does not play well enough, Anthony Richardson will come off the bench and get his chance to prove why the Colts should not give up on him yet.

Out of the backfield, the Colts will still have Jonathan Taylor running the ball. Taylor had a boucne back yearlast season where he ran for 1431 yards and 11 TDs. Given the unstable quarterback situation, he will no doubt be a big part of this offense moving forward. He was able to show last year that he still has the breakaway speed and a nose for the endzone. He will have to prove that he can stay healthy if the Colts offense wants to have any type of success.

The receivers for the Colts will be Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce. Pittman is a big, bodied receiver that is thought to be one of the better yng talents in the league. However, in the five seasons he has played, he has only broken the 1000-yard mark twice. He has dealt with the league’s most unstable quarterback situation but if he wants to be considered the among the receiving greats, he needs to start producing more consistently. Downs is entering his third year and has shown improvement from his rookie year. Last year, he had 72 catches for 803 yards and 5 TDs. He provides a solid WR2 for this offense. Pierce has shown flashes over the firts three years of his career and had his best year last season. He caught 37 balls for 824 yards and 7 TDs. His average reception length was 22.3 yards per catch, which shows that he is the big play receiver for this offense. They also added a weapon in th etight end room by drafiting Tyler Warren out fo Penn State. Warren will add a tight end receiving element that this Colts team has not had in quite some time.

The offensive line will be Bernhard Raimann at left tackle, Quenten Nelson at left guard, Tanor Bortolini at center, Matt Goncalves at right guards, and Braden Smith at right tackle. They lost Will Fries and Ryan Kelly to free agency. The turnover on the line could prove to be an additive. With the quarterbacks on this team being mobile and the best player being the running back, I would imagine that this team will focus on running the ball. That means that this new interior lineman needs to be up for opening the running lanes for Taylor and Joens.

Defense

The Colts will have a new coordinator for their defense. They hired former Bengals DC Lou Anarumo to take over the defense. Anarumo was in head coach conversations just a year or two ago when the Bengals were coming off of their Super Bowl run. The Bengals continued to lose players on defense and ultimately, Anarumo was made the scapegoat. He has a solid roster at his disposal to get his reputation back.

The defense will play a 4-3 base. On the edges will be Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu.. Paye is a former first round pick that has yet to live up to the draft selaection. That being said, he has been a solid contributer. He has had at least 8 sacks in his past two seasons. Latu is coming off his rookie year where he managed to get 4 sacks. This tandem has plenty left to prove.

Meanwhile on the interior, they have Grover Stewart and DeForest Bucker. Stewart is the old man in this group at the ripe old age of 31. He has spent 8 years as a member of the Colts Last year he recorded 3.5 sacks and 74 total tackles. Bucker is one of the most disruptive defensive tackles in the league. he missed some time last year due to injury but still managed 61 total tackles and 6.5 sacks. The experience on the interior of this line will help set the tone or the rest of the defense.

The linebackers will consist of Zaire Franklin, Cameron McGrone, and Joe Bachie. Franklin has been a heat seeking missle over the past three seasons he has played. He totaled 173 tackles last year, including 3.5 sacks and 5 forced fumbles. He is the leader of this defense and will give Anarumo a serious weapon in the heart of the field. Bachie played for Anarumo in Cincy. He has not contriuted too much on the field but will certainly act as the “experienced” vet in this defensive scheme. McGrone is entering his fourth year but has not seen much time on the field. This year is his chance to solidify himself as a starter.

The corners for the colts will be Chavarius Ward, Xavien Howard, and Kenny Moore. Ward was a big-time free agency signing. He has spent time in both Kansas City and San Francisco. He brings championship pedigree, production, and veteran leadership to a defense that has been lacking it for the past several years. Howard was also a big name signing this offseason. He was once listed towards the top of the list for best corners in the league. He is now on the decline as he continues to age but he brings a ton of experience to this room as well. In the nickel, Kenny Moore will continue to play at a high level.

The safeties will be Cam Bynum and Nick Cross. Bynum was signed in free agency after spending four years on the Vikings. He was another big signing for this defense. Anarumo loves to use his safeties, so Bynum has the potential for a career year in this scheme. Cross is coming off his most productive year in the league. He recorded 146 tackles and 3 interceptions. Anarumo will love having this tandem on the back end of the defense to pair with some very experience corners.

Summary

The Colts have a coach and a general manager who are very much on the hot seat. They are trying to keep their jobs past this year. They have already seemingly given up on Anthony Richardson as the future at quarterback. They are moving forward with Daniel Jones at quarterback, which as a Giants fan, does not bode well for the Colts. Their defense should be improved with the addition of veteran secondary players and the hiring of Lou Anarumo. Unfortunately, I think that the quarterback situation is going to cause too much of an uphill battle and would expect the Colts to struggle. Take the under for this team.

Bet – Under 7.5 (-130)

Jacksonville Jaguars – 7.5

• Head Coach – Liam Coen
• OC – Grant Udinski
• DC – Anthony Campanile
• 2024 Record – 4-13
• Strength of Schedule – 6th Easiest

The 2024 Jaguars were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year. They struggled on both sides of the ball, and it led to the owner of the team cleaning house. A new general manager and coaching staff was brought in with the goal of turning this franchise around. They fired long time general manager Trent Baalke and hired James Gladstone. Gladstone is the youngest general manager in the league and comes from the LA Rams front office. They then hired Liam Coen to be the head coach. Coen had great success as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers last year. He is already more well known for one of the more awkward intro press conferences of all time. They wasted no time making moves to improve this roster. They took a big swing in the draft by trading up to get two-way player Travis Hunter.

Offense

The first thing that Liam Coen will need to address is the quarterback situation. He is inheriting Trevor Lawrence. TLaw was once seen as the best prospect of all time. That type of hype is hard to live up to. Through four years in the league, Lawrence has been an average quarterback and has never quite reached the top tier. Last year, he suffered a season ending shoulder injury, which might cause him some issues moving forward. Coen has a project on his hands and if he is unable to get Lawrence to the next level, we might start to hear about a quarterback replacement in Jacksonville.

The running back is an important part of the Coen offense. He showed that to be true in Tampa Bay with two backs. In Jacksonville, he will have Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby to work with. Etienne is currently listed as the starter, but he seemingly took a back seat to Tank last year. Etienne ran for only 558 yards and 2 TDs in 2024. Meanwhile, Bigsby ran for 766 yards and 7 TDs. It is a good problem for this offense, which can use running backs in various ways depending on their skill set.

The receivers are young and very talented for this team. the top three receivers listed on the depth chart are Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Dyami Brown. Thomas Jr. had an incredible rookie year despite the team struggling. He had 87 receptions for 1282 yards and 10 TDs. A very impressive showing considering the inconsistent quarterback play. He is joined by the darling of this years draft, Travis Hunter. Hunter was drafted as a two way player. He is listed as the WR2 and back up corner for this team. Much debate will be had about whether or not he can play both ways like he did at Colorado. However, if he chooses to play primarily as a receiver, he gives this offense a very dynamic 1-2 punch. Dyami Brown was signed in free agency after having some splash plays in Washington in 2024. He gets a chance to earn more snaps and show what he can do.

The tight ends will be Benton Strange and Hunter Long. They lost Evan Engram to free agency this year so Strange has the chance for a bigger role. Last year, he had 40 catches for 411 yards and 2 TDs.

The offensive line will be Walker Little at left tackle, Ezra Cleveland at left guard, Robert Hainsey at center, Patrick Mekari at right guard, and Anton Harrison at right tackle. The unit gains flexibility and reliability with multi-position players and youth infusion.

Defense

The defense is 2024 was one of the worst. They allowed 25.6 points per game, which was 27th in the league. They have a new play caller with the hiring of Anthony Campanile. Campanile has been in the NFL since 2020, when he was the linebackers coach for the Dolphins. Prior to that, he held several positions at Boston College and Rutgers.

This defense will be a 4-3 base. The edges will be set by Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen. Walker was the former number one overall pick. He is perhaps the least talked about number one overall pick, but he turned in a solid 2024. He recorded 10.5 sacks and 61 total tackles. Hines-Allen has had seasons where he looks unstoppable. he had 17.5sacks in 2023. Last year, he had 8 sacks and 45 total tackles. With a new system in place, these two first round picks could see a bump in their production and help set the tone for this defense.

The interior of the line will be held down by DaVon Hamilton and Arik Armstead. Hamilton is entering his sixth year in the NFL. He had 62 total tackles last year and presents a huge body to block up the running lanes. Armstead is a veteran who is entering his second year on the Jags. He had previously played for the 49ers and brings consistency and leadership to this defense when healthy.

The linebackers will be Devin Lloyd, Foyesade Oluokun, and Yasir Abdullah. Lloyd led the team last year in tackles with 113 total tackles. Oluokun was right behind him with 108 total tackles. These two present a solid tandem for the center of the defense with a lot of tackles. Abdullah is a young player who is looking to make his mark in the defense this year.

The corners will be Jarrian Jones, Jourdan Lewis, and Tyson Campbell. Campbell is the lead dog as he is entering his fifth year in the league. He missed some games last year and is looking to bounce back. Jones is in his second year and is hoping to improve on his rookie year. Lewis was signed this offseason after spending 8 years in Dallas. He brings some veteran leadership to this secondary. I would be remiss if I did not mention that Travis Hunter is currently listed behind Jones on the depth chart. This group does not have many household names so they will need to step up this year to make a name for themselves.

The safeties will be Eric Murray and Andrew Wingard. Murray was a free agency signing. He has been in the league for 9 years and comes over from Houston. He had75 total tackles and 1 interception last year. Wingard has been on the Jags for six years. He only played 8 games last year and will hopefully be back to full health as the season starts.

Summary

There was a lot of turnovers this offseason for the Jaguars. With that turnover, comes brand new hope and expectations. They have a talented offense but a major question mark at quarterback. It is time for Trevor Lawrence to step up and finally live up to his potential. New coach, Liam Coen, is seen as an offensive guy that can fix this offense. They have the running backs. They have the receivers. They just need to get it all together. On defense, they have some consistent contributors but they have yet to reach their potential as well. That leaves the door open for surprise success. However, when looking at this team from a betting perspective, it is hard to see this team winning more than 7 games with essentially the same roster as last year. I would take the under but am excited to see how all of these changes work for the Jags.

Bet – Under 7.5(+105)

Tennessee Titans – 6.5

• Head Coach – Brian Callahan
• OC – Nick Holz
• DC – Dennard Wilson
• 2024 Record – 3-14
• Strength of Schedule – 5th Easiest

The 2024 Titans earned the number one overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. That means that they were the worst team in the league last year. They trotted out Will Levis as their starting quarterback and at the very least, it was quite entertaining. It was obviously not a winning style of football and a change was needed. This coaching staff took Cam Ward with the number one overall pick to change this franchise. They will need to surround Ward with talent and continue to build the roster if they are ever going to turn this around. Last year, their offense was 27th in the league in points scored by averaging 18.3 points per game. Their defense was ranked 30th by allowing 27.1 points per game. Neither of these stats are where any team wants to be. this will be the second year of the Brian Callahan culture and roster. We’ll see if they did enough to start seeing positive results.

Offense

Cam Ward was the first pick off the board in this year’s draft. Ward is seen as the franchise quarterback for the future. He had an incredible year at the U and he is ready to bring his talents to Nashville. He will be dropped into an offense that is pretty thin at the skill positions. Most of the time, when a quarterback is propped up as a savior for a franchise, it fails due to the organization. This team will certainly be elevated by the presence of Cam Ward. It will continue to be a work in progress moving forward.

The starting running back for the Titans will be Tony Pollard. Pollard posted his third straight 1000-yard season. 2024 was his first in Tennessee and he was a solid addition to the team. Given that he was replacing Derrick Henry, he was not going to get much shine unless he went for 2000 yards. Pollard is not that guy. He provides a steady consistency in the run game that will be important for an offense with a rookie quarterback.

The receivers will be Calvin Ridely, Tyler Lockett, and Van Jefferson. This trio has plenty of experience but does not inspire much confidence for this offense. Ridley is entering his second year as a Titan. Last year, he showed that he still has the skills to be a number one receiver. He caught 64 balls for 1017 yards and 4 TDs. Lockett is on the tail end of his career. He spent 10 seasons in Seattle and has seen his production decline over the past two years. He gets another chance at being a WR2 this season with a new quarterback. Van Jefferson has bounced around the league but has not ever broken 500 receiving yards. this group is thin and a cause for concern for their rookie quarterback. Their starting tight end will be Chig Okonkwo. Okonkwo is entering his fourth year as a member of the Titans. He had 52 catches for 479 yards and 2 TDs last year.

The starting offensive line will be Dan Moore at left tackle, Peter Skoronski at left guard, Lloyd Cushenberry at center, Kevin Zeitler at right guard, and JC Latham at right tackle. This group is coached by Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan’s dad. Bill is a very well-regarded offensive line coach so you can expect that this group will be well coached and physical.

Defense

The defense will need to step up their game from last year if they want to give this team any kind of chance at winning. They were a tough group last year but still gave up too many points to be considered a good defense.

Up front, the line will be made up of Sebastian Joseph-Day, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jeffery Simmons. Simmons is the stud of this defensive line. He has been a great defensive tackle in his time in Tennessee. Last year, he had 76 tackles and 5 sacks. Joseph-Day was a free agent signing for the Titans last year. He had 44 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Sweat is a second-year player that they are excited about. He had 51 tackles and 1 sack in his rookie year.

The edges will be set by the outside linebackers Dre’Mont Jones and Arden Key. Jones was brought in through free agency after spending time in Seattle and Denver. Last year in Seattle, he recorded 4 sacks and 28 tackles. Arden Key has seemingly found his home in Nashville. He had 6.5 sacks and 42 total tackles last year. This pair of pass rushers will need to produce more to help out this defense.

The interior linebackers will be Cody Barton and James Williams. Barton was a big free agency signing from Denver. He had 106 tackles, 1.5 sacks. and 8.5 run stuffs for Denver last year. He brings a tough and physical brand of football to this Titan defense. Williams enters his second year and having 26 tackles in 13 games during his rookie year. He needs to stay healthy and increase his production in his second year.

The starting corners for this team will be L’Jarius Sneed, Jarvis Brownlee, and Roger McCreary. Sneed is dealing with a quad injury. When healthy, he has the ability to be the best corner in the league. He was a big splash signing for the Titans last year but he was only able to play for 5 games. Brownlee is a second-year player out of Louisville. He recorded 75 tackles and 1 interception last year. McCreary is entering his fourth year/ Last year he had 50 tackles in 15 games.

The safeties will be Xavier Woods and Amani Hooker. Woods was signed in free agency after spending the previous three seasons in Carolina. He had a career high 3 interceptions and 119 total tackles last year. Hooker has been a mainstay for this secondary since 2019. He has struggled with injuries over the past few years. This tandem of safeties provides a level of experience that this defense needs.

Summary

The Titans finally have some direction on offense. the drafting of Cam Ward gives the team some much needed stability at the quarterback position. The offense will still most likely struggle due to their skill positions and their offensive line play. On defense, they have a chance to be very solid. I think that there is too much change to be made in the second year of the Callahan tenure. This year will be a step in the right direction, but I believe that they will continue to struggle. I would take their under.

Bet – Under 6.5 (-145)

Houston Texans – 9.5

• Head Coach – DeMeco Ryans
• OC – Nick Caley
• DC – Matt Burke
• 2024 Record – 10 -7
• Strength of Schedule – 25th Easiest

The 2024 Texans were tough to watch at times. They were dealing with injuries all over their roster. Despite that, they found a way to win their division and make it to the playoffs. CJ Stroud led this team to a 10-7 record and a playoff win over the Los Angeles Chargers. They ultimately lost to the Chiefs in the Divisional round 23-14. This team has been on the bubble since they drafted Stroud and Demeco Ryans took over as coach. They play in an easy division so they should be able to sleepwalk to another divisional title this year. They have their sights set higher and we will see if they made enough moves in the offseason to move the needle.

Offense

The offense will have a new play caller this year. They parted ways with OC Bobby Slowik after the offense show signs of struggle last year. They were ranked 19th in the league in terms of points scored. They averaged 21.9 points per game. This was down from the previous year when they averaged 22.2 points per game. They brought in Nick Caley to be the OC. Caley was a long-time tight ends coach for the Patriots and was the pass game coordinator for the Rams last year. It will be interesting to see how a new coordinator affects this offense.

CJ Stroud had a bit of a sophomore slump last year. That is the narrative at least. I do not think you can call it a slump since he was coming off a historically great rookie year. He was dealing with a revolving offensive line and often injured receivers. Despite that, he was able to throw for 3727, 20 TDs, and 12 ints. He was also sacked 52 time, which was up from 38 in his rookie year. The other concerning part of his stat line was his average yards per completion decreased. He still has the ability to be a great quarterback, but he needs some help in the receiver room and on the offensive line.

The running back room took a huge hit in the preseason. Joe Mixon suffered a season ending injury and will miss the 2025 season. Mixon had a great 2023 season with the Texans. He ran for 1016 yards and 11 TDs. Now, he will be rehabbing to get back in 2026. The Texans signed Nick Chubb this offseason. He was originally meant to complement Mixon but will be the lead back once the season starts. Chubb is trying to get his career back on track. He has suffered terrible injuries over the past two years. Prior to those injuries, Chubb had a 1500-yard season. If he can get back to that form, the Texans will still be able to run the ball effectively.

The receivers for this team will be Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Jayden Higgins. Collins has elevated his game to be considered one of the top receivers in the game. The thing that is holding him back from being on top of the list is his durability. He has yet to play a full season in his four-year career. When he is on the field, he is the clear number one for CJ Stroud. In 12 games last year, he had 68 caches for 1006 yards and 7 TDs. With the departure of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell still recovering from his own injury, Collins needs to stay healthy more than ever this year. Christian Kirk was signed to be the number two receiver. Kirk has been a productive receiver in his time in the NFL. He was hurt last year as well and only appeared in 8 games. In 7 seasons in the NFL, he has only broken the 1000-yard mark once. If he is healthy, he can be a good complement to Collins. Jayden Higgins is a rookie out of Iowa State and has the chance to make a name for himself with the injuries to this group.

The tight end room will have Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover. Schultz has been the safety blanket for CJ Stroud over the past two years. He has had 50+ receptions and 500+ yards in his two years as the Houston tight end. Stover is the blocking tight end but can supplement Schultz in the pass game if needed.

The offensive line for the Texans is a group that needs to improve if the team is ever going to reach the next level. They traded away their starting left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, to Washington this offseason. They brought in some vet depth, but the starting line will be Aireontae Ersery at left tackle, Laken Tomlinson at left guard, Jake Andrews at center, Ed Ingram at right guard, and Tytus Howard at right tackle.

Defense

The identity of this team will be their defense. It starts up front with a great defensive line group. They have Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter at the edges. Anderson is entering his third year and is starting to become one of the best young pass rushers in the league. In his second year, he recorded 11 sacks and 37 total tackles. As he enters his third year, he has the chance to establish himself a premiere pass rusher. Hunter has been a great pass rusher for quite some time already. He signed with Houston last year and had an immediate impact. He had 46 total tackles and 12 sacks. This tandem is a scary pairing for any opposing quarterback.

The interior of the line will be Mario Edwards and Sheldon Rankins. These two are a very experienced group. Edwards has bounced around the league but had 31 tackles and 3 sacks for the Texans last year. Rankins comes over from Cincy where he was dealing with injury. These two will have the experience and ability to clog up the middle of this line while the edge rushers do their thing.

The linebackers will be the bread and butter of this defense. With Demeco Ryans being a former Texans linebacker himself, it makes sense that he knows what kind of guy to look for in this position. He has a physical group that consists of Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, and Henry To’oTo’o. Al-Shaair is certainly a physical linebacker. IT actually gets him into trouble at times. He served a suspension last year due to some personal foul issues. When he is not being suspended, he is the center of this defense and brings consistent production. Henry To’oTo’o had a breakout year last year where he recorded 105 total tackles and 1.5 sacks. Christian Harris is a young player that is looking to bounce back from injury last year.

The starting corners will be Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre. Stingley Jr. is a top 3 corner in the league and locks down half of the field. He has had 5 interceptions in each of the last two seasons and should be avoided by opposing quarterbacks. Lassiter is entering his second year after recording 3 interceptions in his rookie season. Pitre is a fourth-year player who will also be coming back from injury last year.

The safeties will be C.J Gardner-Johnson and Calen Bullock. CJGJ was signed from the Eagles this past offseason. He brings a certain element and edge to this defense that will add to the takeaways and physical nature. He is dealing with an injury and is listed as questionable on the injury report right now. Bullock is a second-year player who had 5 interceptions in his rookie year. Pairing him with CJGJ and the rest of this secondary should only elevate his play.

Summary

The Texans are one of those teams in the league that are looking beyond their win totals. They play in a soft division and should be in line to win their third straight division title. Their offense will be a question mark as health and offensive line play might restrict the production. They have a new OC as well, so there might be some adjustment to a new scheme. The success of the team will be driven by their defense that can get after the quarterback and force turnovers. Despite having a tough schedule, they should be able to get back to double digit wins and will be looking to go on a deep playoff run this year. Take the Texans to hit their over.

Bet – Over 9.5 (+110)