For the second year in a row, we have a Week 1 game in Brazil. Last year, they had the Eagles and the Packers travel down there. There were some issues with the field and by all reports so far, it appears that the field could play a factor in tonight’s game as well. The Chiefs and the Chargers have plenty of history as they head into the first of two guaranteed matchups this year. From a betting standpoint, we are looking to get our first win after last night. It was a tough way to start but we have plenty of football ahead of us. For tonight, I have outlined some things to keep an eye on for tonight’s matchup. First things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Under 46.5 Points

Chiefs @ Chargers

Match-up Overview and History

These AFC West rivals have faced each other 130 times. The Chiefs hold an edge on the all-time series with the current record being 71-58-1. The last 5 matchups have gone the Chiefs way. Last year, the games were low scoring affairs. The final scores were 17-10 and 19-17. With both defenses being the strength of these teams, we could be in line for a similar outcome.

The current line favors the Chiefs by 3 points, and the point total is set at 46.5 points. With the game being in Brazil, there are concerns about the field conditions. Last year, it led to injuries for the Packers and Eagles, most notably Jordan Love.

Chiefs Offense

The Kansas City offense had a down year, for their standards, in 2024. They were exactly middle of the pack in scoring. They were averaging 22.6 points per game, which was 15th in the league. With some injuries and inconsistent offensive line play, they struggled to put up the numbers that Chiefs fans have grown accustomed to. The pass game was averaging 222 yards per game, which was 14th in the league. Patrick Mahomes did not have a great year statistically, throwing for 3928 yards, 26 TDs, and 11 interceptions. The Chiefs bulked up the offensive line in the offseason, so hopefully better protection will lead to a more efficient pass game. They face a tough Chargers pass defense, so logic would dictate that they should focus on the run game.

They were not the best running team last year. They averaged 105 yards per game, which was 22nd in the league. They did get Isiah Pacheco back from injury, which should boost the run game. They also have Kareem Hunt who will supplement Pacheco after taking on the leading role last year.

Chiefs Defense

The Chiefs defense was a major reason that they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. They were 4th in points allowed, allowing an average of 19.2 points per game. They were particularly good against the run. They only allowed 101 yards per game, which was 8th in the league. Against the pass, they were 18th, allowing an average of 218 yards per game. It would seem that their strength matches the offensive strength of the Chargers. Los Angeles is built to run the ball first. If the Chiefs are able to shut down the run, they can force the Chargers into having to rely on their pass game. That has not gone well for the Chargers previously.

Chargers Offense

As I mentioned above, the Chargers are built to run the ball. Last year, they averaged 110 yards on the ground, which was 17th in the league. They were able to build up their offensive line in the first year of Harbaughs tenure. With that being said, they are down their best offensive lineman for the season. Rashawn Slater went down in the preseason with a season ending injury. That causes the entire line to shuffle.

In an effort to improve the run offense, they brought in a couple of backs this year. It looks like rookie Omarion Hampton will get the start over Najee Harris. Hampton will be running behind this tough line against one of the better run defenses in the league.

The pass game for the Chargers is going to be the key to their success. Last year, they were 19th in the league with 213 average pass yards per game. That was accomplished without a true WR1. This year, that slot is filled by Ladd McConkey. McConkey only played in one game against the Chiefs last year. He had 5 catches for 67 yards. On the season as a whole, he totaled 1149 yards and 7 TDs. There is an opportunity for him to have an impact on this game given that the Chiefs let up a decent amount of yards through the air.

Chargers Defense

The Chargers defense allowed the least amount of points per game last year. They were only allowing 17.7 points per game. They excelled against the pass. They allowed an average of 206 yards per game, which was 7th in the NFL. Against the run, they were allowing 114 yards per game, which was 14th in the league. They retooled their defense a bit but it going to be led by safety Derwin James. James will be most likely be responsible for matching up with Travis Kelce and forcing Mahomes to go to his other targets. This unit has held Kansas City to under 20 points in the past 3 matchups.

Best Bet Background – Under 46.5

These division rivals pride themselves on defensive football. Tonight should be no different. The Chiefs are going to be without their top wide receiver with the suspension of Rashee Rice. The Chargers have some major question marks on the offensive line. Both of these defenses were top 4 in points allowed last season with minimal roster turnover this year. The two games that these two played last year failed to break the 40-point mark.