NFL Week 1: Top Four Player Bets for Sunday

The start of the 2025 season has been eventful on the field but tough for the Black Dog Best Bets. Our Thursday bet ran into a lightning delay that changed the complexion of the game. Last night, the under was in play until late in the fourth quarter. That is just how things go sometimes. Now, we have a full slate of Sunday games to bet on and get back in the win column. A 0-2 start is not where we want to be, but Week 1 is always tough on the betting public. Enough excuses though. I have gone through the slate today and picked 4 Best Bets for the day and provided some background on each. I have also included Jamie’s pick of the week. Let’s make some money!

First things first, the Best Bets:

Best Bets

Darius Slayton Receiving Yards over 27.5
Baker Mayfield Rush Yards over 14.5
Evan Engram Receiving Yards over 34.5
Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards over 47.5

Best Bet Background- Darius Slayton Receiving Yards over 27.5 (DraftKings)

There have been a lot of changes over the offseason for the New York Giants. One change was Darius Slayton’s jersey number. He is changing from 86 to 18. Another change was who is playing quarterback for the Giants. They will start Russell Wilson who has an affinity for the deep ball. Slayton still has breakaway speed and can create separation from these Washington corners. Malik Nabers will draw all the attention of the defense, so Slayton will have 1:1 matchup. Nabers is dealing with several minor injuries that could flare up at any time. If they do, Slayton will be elevated to WR1. He has averaged 42.4 yards a game in his career. There is also a good chance that the Giants are going to be playing from behind, so they will need to continue to pass the ball throughout the game.

Best Bet Background – Baker Mayfield Rush Yards over 14.5 (FanDuel)

Baker Mayfield had a career year in 2024. He recorded career highs in pass yards, pass touchdowns, and rush yards. He showed a willingness to tuck and run the ball at a higher rate of success than he had done in any previous year. He faces a Falcons team that allowed 120 rush yards per game, which was 15th in the NFL. The Buccaneers are dealing with some key injuries that might force Baker to use his legs more than expected. He will be without receivers Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. That puts a lot of pressure on Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka. Additionally, left tackle Tristan Wirfs is out. Unplanned quarterback runs occur when receivers are covered and there is pressure on the quarterback, forcing them out of the pocket. The Falcons added Leonard Floyed in the offseason o increase their pass rush pressure. I would expect that pressure to affect the Bucs pass game and force Baker to run. Last year, he averaged 22.2 yards per game and ran for a season high 42 yards against this Falcons team. I would expect him to have similar success with his legs in this NFC South matchup.

Best Bet Background – Evan Engram Receiving Yards over 34.5 (FanDuel)

Evan Engram joined the Broncos as a free agent this offseason. His athleticism at the tight end position makes him the perfect player for a Sean Payton offense. Payton loves his tight ends, especially those that can line up in several positions. The Broncos do face a stingy Titans pass defense that will be looking to disrupt the rhythm of second year quarterback, Bo Nix. Nix will now have a solid safety blanket in Engram when facing pressure. Engram has a career average of 46 yards per game. He has the ability to run after the catch as well, which makes hm an attractive middle of the field target. I would expect Sean Payton to get his new weapon involved early so that Bo Nix can develop a strong chemistry with Engram.

Best Bet Background – Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards over 47.5 (DraftKings)

The Bills are facing off against the Ravens in primetime for the first Sunday Night Football game of the season. The reigning MVP Josh Allen will be leading the charge for this Bills team. During his MVP campaign last year, Khalil Shakir emerged as the leading receiver for this Bills team. He led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. He was averaging 54.7 yards per game. The Ravens struggled against the pass last year, allowing