Our Best Bets went 2-2 yesterday and stand at 2-4 for the week. Week 1 has been tough to predict but we were happy to at least get in the win column and go .500 yesterday. Last night, the Bills gave us a thrilling finish to a game to give Jamie his first correct pick of the year. Tonight, we wrap up Week 1 with an NFC North matchup between the Vikings and Bears. Both of these teams have made significant changes in the offseason, so it will be interesting to see how they work out. I have provided some background on tonight’s matchup and provided a Best Bet. FanDuel is also promoting a sweat free parlay, so I threw together a parlay to boost our potential winnings. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards over 17.5

Vikings @ Bears

These NFC North rivals have plenty of history between the two of them. They have played 128 games, and the record currently stands 68-58-2 in the Vikings favor. In the last five matchups, Minnesota has gone 4-1. Right now, the Vikings are favored by 1.5 with 60% of the bets being placed on Vikings -1.5. 70% of the bets are being placed on the Vikings money line. There is no inclement weather predicted for tonight’s game.

Game Odds

Vikings Offense

The Kevin O’Connell offense is going to have a new quarterback once again. KOC has shown that he has the ability to make the offense run no matter the quarterback. Last year, he helped Sam Darnold earn a big contract out in Seattle. Tonight marks the first start of the J.J McCarthy era. McCarthy takes over an offense that was 9th in the league in points scored. They averaged 25.4 points per game in 2024. They relied more on the pass than the run game. Through the air, they averaged 237 yards per game, which was 6th in the NFL. On the ground, they averaged 109 yards over game, which was ranked 19th.

It will be interesting to see how KOC decides to use McCarthy. He has no shortage of weapons on this offense. Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers out there. They just traded for Adam Theilen to bring him home. They have T.J Hockenson at tight end. They are facing a Bears defense that struggled as a whole last year and could be in for a long night. On the ground, they have Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. The Bears were not great against the run last year, so the Vikings may want to take pressure off their young qb by running more. Either way, history has shown that KOC will be able to cook up a plan that fits his team.

Vikings Defense

The Vikings defense is led by defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Flores has been able to scheme up quarterback specific game plans. He helped turn this Minnesota defense into the 5th best defense in terms of points allowed. they were only allowing an average of 19.5 points per game. They excelled against the run, allowing just 93 yards per game. That was 2nd in the NFL. Oddly enough, they were allowing more yards through the air. They allowed an average of 242 yards per game, which was 28th in the league. Headed into tonight’s matchup with the Bears, that would be something to keep an eye on. A key injury in the secondary will make those Bears passing props even more enticing. Safety Harrison Smith is going to miss tonight.

Bears Offense

The Bears have a new offensive scheme that came with their new head coach, Ben Johnson. Johnson was the OC for the top scoring offense in the league last year with Detroit . He takes over an offense that struggled in all phases of the game. They were 28th in points scored, averaging 18.2 points per game. They were 31st in pass yards, managing 181 yards per game. The run game was 25th, averaging 102 yards per game. There is plenty of room for improvement. Johnson excelled in Detroit by establishing the run with two backs, using play action, and utilizing tough receivers and tight ends. The Bears have these kinds of players on their roster.

The play of quarterback Caleb Williams will show the work put in by Johnson in the offseason. The front office focused on building up the offensive line for the Bears to fit Johnson’s scheme. The worry with Caleb is whether or not he will be able to stay on schedule. Williams is an improviser while Johnson’s scheme calls for precise timing. They will face a complicated defense tonight, which might cause Williams to second guess his reads and will lead to sacks. That being said, the Vikings pass defense did let up a lot of yards, so Caleb could be in for a productive night in the box score.

The other key thing to keep an eye on will be how this Bears run game is able to operate. With the new pieces on the offensive line, they should be better, but they have a tough test with this Minnesota front.

Bears Defense

The Bears defense is what will keep this team in the game tonight if the offense needs time to figure itself out. Last year, the Bears allowed 21.8 points per game, which was 13th in the NFL. They were more effective against the pass than the run. They allowed 217 yards per game through the air, which was 16th in the league. They allowed 136 yards per game on the ground, which was 28th in the league.

The pass game tonight might be in trouble due to injuries to the secondary. Starting corner, Jaylon Johnson is questionable. So is another corner, Kyler Gordon. They also are likely going to be without their starting middle linebacker, T.J Edwards. This does not bode well for the Bears as a whole. They will need to keep the Vikings off of the field and out of the endzone. With these injuries to the secondary, it is a tough ask for their replacements to go up against Justin Jefferson.

Best Bet Background – Aaron Jones Receiving Yards over 17.5

The Vikings are going to be trotting out their new quarterback that, for all intents and purposes, is essentially a rookie. They will be going up against a tough Bears defensive front four. The best way for a young quarterback to gain confidence is to get him to complete quick and easy passes. These will typically be screens, slants, and checkdowns. Aaron Jones will provide a great option for J.J McCarthy out of the backfield. Jones showed last year that he can still run and catch the ball effectively. In 12 out of 17 games, we went over the 17.5 yard receiving mark. In two games against the Bears he went for 23 yards in one game and 20 in the other. I would expect him to be involved in the pass game early. With the injuries to this Bears defense, there is potential for him to break a long run as well.

Sweat Free Parlay (+581)

• Adam Thielen TD
• Justin Jefferson 50+ Rec Yards
• D.J Moore 40+ Rec Yards

Adam Thielen returns to Minnesota. What better way to welcome him home than to get him in the endzone. Justin Jefferson is potentially matching up against backups with the injuries to the Bears secondary. D.J Moore is WR1 for the Bears and Ben Johnson will find a way to get the ball in his hands for big plays.