We are back at it with the kickoff of Week 2. Last week, our Best Bets went 3-4 and Jamie correctly picked the winner of the Bills-Ravens game. This week starts off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packer and the Washington Commanders. I have outlined some of the factors to keep an eye on for the game and provided Best Bet. Let’s start Week 2 off on the right foot with a win.

Best Bet

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards over 34.5

Commanders @ Packers

Match-up Overview and History

The Packers are hosting the Commanders at Lambeau Field. These teams have faced each other 40 times. Green Bay holds the edge in the lifetime series with a 22-17-1 record. Both teams are coming off of Week 1 decisive victories. The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 while the Commanders dominated the Giants with a 21-6 victory.

Tonight, the Packers are favored by 3.5 points. The over/under for the game is 48.5 points. The public seems to be pretty evenly split on the spread in this game with 58% of the bets being placed on Commanders +3.5 but 53% of the money being on Packers -3.5. Meanwhile, 94% of the public money is being placed on the Packers winning. Additionally, 96% of the bets are being placed on the under.

Game Odds

Commanders Offense

The offense for the Commanders scored 21 points in their game against the Giants. They were able to move the ball seemingly at will. They did not turn the ball over and relied more heavily on the run than the pass. The biggest issue for this offense were penalties and dropped passes. The team as a whole had 12 penalties for 89 yards. Meanwhile, only 19 of 30 passes were completed. All together, they ran for 220 yards and had 212 yards passing. While they did not play their best game, they picked the right team to work out some issues against. The Giants have been historically bad in the first games of season. this week will be a true test as they take on a tough Packers defense.

The offense will go as far as quarterback Jayden Daniels will take them. He has been dealing with a minor wrist injury, but it should not impact his play tonight. His dual threat ability was on display last week against the Giants. He threw for 233 yards and 1 TD. He added 68 rushing yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He faces an aggressive and disciplined Packers defense. His main target last week was Deebo Samuel. Deebo had 7 catches for 77 yards. The offense will most likely continue to go through him while Terry McLaurin is still getting into game shape.

Commanders Defense

The Commanders held the Giants to 6 points last week. Now, that might be more of a product of a poor Giants offense than a dominant performance by this Washington defense. That being said, the defensive line for the Commanders caused major issues in the run and pass game for the Giants. The Packers will be down two starters on the offensive line so there is an opportunity for this defense to make some noise in the trenches. They held the Giants to just 74 rush yards last week. They will have a tougher task with a team that typically runs the ball well.

Packers Offense

After much concern over injuries on this Packers offense, they just came out and dominated the Lions last week. They scored 27 points and did so without putting up many yards. That just means that they were efficient and played complementary ball with their defense and special teams. They ran for 78 yards and passed for 188 yards. They took care of the ball and were +1 in the turnover battle. The offense looked to be humming last week.

The concern for this team tonight will be the injuries to the offensive line. They might be without Zach Tom and Aaron Banks on the offensive line. They face a much-improved Washington defensive line. The true matchup will emerge in the run game. Packers running back, Josh Jacobs, is a workhorse for this offense. He is a downhill physical runner. It might be a grinding type of game with not too many yards for Jacobs. That puts the pressure on quarterback Jordan Love. Love will be relying on his corps of speedy receivers and a physical tight end. Last week, the Packers showed that they can spread the ball around and will continue to do so tonight.

Packers Defense

The Packers defense will be talked about all night because of the recent acquisition of Micah Parsons. However, Parsons is played limited snaps due to a back injury last week and will continue to ramp up this week. That makes the performance against the Lions last week all the more impressive for this dense. They were able to get to Jared Goff for 4 sacks. They got 1 interception as well. As a whole, the Packers held the Lions to 13 points, 46 rush yards, and 200 pass yards. This was one of the top ranked offenses in the league last year. So, the fact that the Packers were able to stifle them was impressive. Adding Parsons into the mix will be a cherry on top of an already dominant defense. They face a different beast in Jayden Daniels tonight. They will have to rely on their defensive scheme to keep Jayden in the pocket and not letting him break contain.

Best Bet Background – Zach Ertz Receiving Yards over 34.5

Ertz has been a consistent performer for this Washington offense. He has been in the Kliff Kingsbury offensive system since their shared time in Arizona. Last year, he became a safety option for Jayden Daniels in this pass game. Last year, Ertz averaged 38.5 yards per game. He also became a red zone threat once again. He scored 7 TDs last season and has already found the end zone this season. Last week, he was targeted 5 times. He caught 3 of those targets for 26 yards and 1 TD. Tonight, he faces a Packers defense that allowed Sam LaPorta to gain 79 yards on 6 receptions last week. That bodes well for Ertz to have a solid night. Add in the fact that the Packers pass rush will be chasing Jayden Daniels all over the field, he will look for checkdowns with a familiar target in Ertz who does not run too many deep routes.