Week 3 is already here. There have some crazy games so far in this young football season. Last week was a repeat of Week 1. Our Best Bets went 3-4 and Jamie correctly picked the winner of his game. This week starts off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the 2-0 Buffalo Bills and the 0-2 Miami Dolphins. I have outlined some of the factors to keep an eye on for the game and provided Best Bet. Let’s start Week 3 off on the right foot with a win.

Best Bet

James Cook Rush Yards over 67.5

Dolphins @ Bills

Match-up Overview and History

This AFC East rivalry has been dominated by the Bills in recent history. Overall, the Dolphins lead the all-time series 62-60-1 but the Bills have won the last 5 matchups, with the most recent game being last season, ending in a 30-27 Bills victory. However, the Bills dominance goes back even further. Since Josh Allen has been the starting quarterback, he has an 11-2 record against the Dolphins. Based on how the first two weeks of the season have gone so far, there is little to indicate that the Dolphins will end the trend.

From a betting perspective, the Bills are favored by 11.5 points, and the points total is set at 49.5. Going back to last year, the Bills are 14-3 against the spread and the Dolphins are 7-12 against the spread. As of now, 98% of the public bets are on the Bills to win, 57% of the bets are on them to cover 11.5 points, and 85% are on the under.

Game Odds

Dolphins Offense

The once high-flying Dolphins offense has seemingly hit a wall. So far this year, they are averaging 17.5 points per game, which is 25th in the league. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not looked good in his first two starts. He has thrown for 429 yards, 3TDs, and 3 ints. Last week, he threw an ugly pick to lose the game against the Patriots. He has not been on the same page as his receivers and currently has the 31st ranked quarterback rating. On top of a slow start to the season, he has historically struggled against the Bills. Last year, he played in only one of the games against the Bills and he was badly injured, forcing him to miss significant time last season. Before the injury, he was not playing well. He had already thrown 3 picks in that game that ultimately went in the Bills favor, 31-10. AS a whole, the pass game is currently ranked 15th in the league with an average of 215 yards per game.

Typically, when a pass game is struggling and the team is losing, the run game is not performing. The Dolphins are very typical in this case. They have been trailing in their 2 games so far and have only managed an average of 69 rush yards per game. Lead back, De’Von Achane, has not had the impact that many thought he would have on this offense so far. He has only managed 85 yards on 18 carries. However, he is used more in the pass game. Last week, he was had 8 receptions for 92 yards and 1 TD. Tonight, if the Dolphins want to have a shot at beating the Bills, they will need to establish the run and control the clock. The Bills are letting up the most rush yards in the league currently and that has been a trend going back to last season. The longer that they can keep Josh Allen on the bench, the better it will be for the Dolphins.

Dolphins Defense

As bad as the Dolphins offense has been, their defense has been worse. They are the main contributors to a blowout loss to the Colts in Week 1 and last weeks lost to the Patriots. They are allowing 33 points per game. The Colts and Pats were able to pick their poison against this unit. They are allowing 236 pass yards per game, which is 24th in the league. They are the 25th ranked rush defense, allowing 139 yards per game. Adding to their woes would be injuries. Defensive linemen Chop Robinson and Benito Jones are questionable. As are defensive backs Storm Duck and Ifteatu Melifonwu. They are already pretty thin on defense and are one major injury away from complete disaster.

Bills Offense

The Bills offense seemingly picked up where they left off last year. With Josh Allen at the helm, they have been clicking on all cylinders. They pulled out a miraculous Week 1 victory over the Ravens and then rolled right through the Jets in Week 2. In the first 2 weeks, they are averaging 35.5 points per game, which is the second most in the NFL. They are able to attack defenses with a very balanced attack. They are ranked second in both pass and rush yards per game so far, averaging 284 and 166 respectively. This dangerous offense matches up well against a Dolphins defense that has not been able to stop much. It should be an easy day at the office for the Bills on offense.

Bills Defense

The only question mark for this Bills team might be their defense. Yet again,most of their numbers are inflated right now after a Week 1 shootout with the Ravens. They are allowing an average of 25.5 points per game. Again, that is mainly a product of letting up 40 points in Week 1. Last week, they allowed a late touchdown to let the Jets get 10 points. They completely stifled the Jets from a yardage standpoint as well. They should continue their dominance tonight.

Best Bet Background – James Cook Rush Yards over 67.5

The Bills are more than likely going to be winning this game. It will just be a matter of by how much. When they are up, they will be running the ball with running back James Cook. This proved to be the case last week during the Bills blowout win against the Jets. Cook saw an increase in his carries, from 10 to 21, from the week prior. He ran for 132 yards and 2 TDs last week. He faces a bad Dolphins team who has more specifically struggled against the run so far. They let up 122 rush yards to the Pats las week, who operate by committee. With the Dolphins projected to be trailing and them struggling to defend the run, look for James Cook to have a big night.