Week 5 is here, and we are riding on a high after last week. Our Best Bets went 7-1 last week, which was a much-needed bounce back. It was great to end the week on Monday night, where the games were not great, but our bet hit very easily. Let’s keep that energy rolling as we have an interesting NFC West matchup between the 49ers and Rams. The 49ers are dealing with a slew of injuries, so this one may get out of hand. Or it could live up to the normal hype of a weird NFC West Thursday game. Either way, I have gone through the bets and picked the one that should hit tonight. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Kyren Williams Rush Yards over 67.5 (-112 FanDuel)

49ers @ Rams

Match-up Overview and History

The (3-1) 49ers are traveling to Los Angeles to take on the (3-1) Rams. These teams have faced each other 152 times and the 49ers lead the all-time series 78-71-3. In the last 5 matchups, the Rams have won 3 of 5 with the most recent game being on December 12th, 2024. That games was a 12-6 Rams victory. The Rams have won the last three games with a combined margin of victory of 10 points.

The Rams are favored by 7.5 points, and the point total is 44.5. 53% of the public bets are being placed on Rams -7.5 while 62% of the money are being placed on Rams -7.5. 92% of the bets and 89% of the money are being placed on the Rams to win. The public seems to be favoring a low scoring affair with 66% of the bets being placed on the under. Interestingly, 53% of the money is being placed on the over, so the big money bettors seem to be favoring the points.

Game Odds

49ers Offense

The storyline for San Fran tonight will be injuries. They are missing several key starters on offense heading into tonight’s game. Quarterback Brock Purdy will be sidelined with a turf toe injury. Backup Mac Jones will be starting his 3rd game for the 9ers this year. They will also be without their 3 top pass catchers. Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle will all not be on the field. In their places will be Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Skyy Moore, and Jake Tonges. The injuries are not new for the 49ers this year. They have been plagued since the preseason, and it has been affecting the production of this offense. They are averaging 20 points per game which is 23rd in the NFL. They are leaning on their passing game which has been doing numbers. They are 2nd in the league, averaging 280 yards per game. On the ground, they are not as effective. They are averaging 88 yards on the ground, which is 28th in the league. We will see how this offense of backups fares against a very good defense on the other side of the field. I would imagine that most of the offense will run through Christian McCaffery either on the ground or through the air.

49ers Defense

The 9ers defense is currently keeping this team afloat by shutting down opposing offenses. They are 7th in the league in points allowed. They are allowing an average of 18.8 points per game. They have been excelling against the pass, allowing 165 yards per game, which is 6th in the league. This will be tested in facing a Rams offense that likes to throw the ball around the yard. The weakness of this defense has been the run defense. They are 17th in the league, allowing 115 yards per game. There are a decent number of injuries on his side of the ball as well. The most significant is Nick Bosa being out for the season.

Rams Offense

Sean McVay is always going to have a high-flying offense. As long as he has a healthy quarterback to make everything click. He has a healthy Matthew Stafford who has passed for 1114 yards and 8 TDs. The passing offense as a whole is ranked 3rd in the league, averaging 267 yards per game. The wide receiver combination of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams is proving to be a beneficial pairing as they are able to move the ball, seemingly at will. On the ground, they are averaging 120 yards per game, which is 13th in the league. This rushing attack is led by Kyren Williams, who has 68 rushes for 303 yards and 1 TD. They have the chance to move the ball against this 49ers defense who just let up 124 yards to Travis Etienne. The offense as a whole has been averaging 25 points per game, which is 13th in the league.

Rams Defense

The Rams having a defense has been a bit of a surprise to those that are not familiar with the Rams. Last year, they hit on several young draft picks and built the foundation. This year, they are rolling early. They are only allowing 20.3 points per game, which is 10th in the league. They are balanced in terms of pass versus run. They are allowing an average of 186 yards a game, which is 9th in the league. On the ground, they are allowing 98 yards, which is 10th in the league. A matchup to watch tonight will be Chrisitan McCaffery against this defense. With so many starters out on offense, the Rams will be focusing on CMC.

Best Bet Background – Kyren Williams Rush Yards over 67.5

The bet for tonight is going to be Kyren Williams rush yards. These Rams-49ers games are always a tough matchup and are usually closer score wise than people usually expect. Tonight has all the ingredients for a big Rams win but you never know. Either way, the Rams are going to run the ball. Williams has gone over this line in the last two games that he has played. The first two games, he ran for 66 in each game. He is currently leading the team in carries. In a game that is set for the Rams to be ahead, they should be fairly run heavy. The 49ers have shown themselves to be vulnerable to the run when teams commit to the run. The Jags ran for over 100 yards against them last week. That was the first team that they have faced this year that is truly set up to run the ball. The Rams are the next one. I envision Kyren Williams playing a large role in a potential blowout tonight.