Our Best Bets went 1-4 yesterday. It has been a humbling week after going 7-1 last week. That is just life in the gambling world. The Sunday slate proved to be what we thought it was going to be. A bunch of bad game with some good ones sprinkled in there. Tonight, could be a fairly decent game. On paper, I would not have expected that this would be a good matchup at the start of the year. However, the Jaguars have gotten off to a fast start and face the Chiefs who are always in contention. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Travis Etienne Rush Yards over 64.5

Chiefs @ Jaguars

The 2-2 Chiefs are traveling to Jacksonville to take on the 3-1 Jaguars. These two teams are not exactly where people expected them to be after 4 weeks. The Chiefs have won 2 games in a row after a slow 0-2 start. Meanwhile, the Jags are off to a hotter start than anyone anticipated. These teams do have some history playing against each other. They have played a total of 16 times. The Chiefs are 10-6 in those matchups. They have won the previous 5 games with the most recent being a 17-9 victory on Sept. 17th, 2023. In Jacksonville, there is some rain predicted around game time, so the game might get delayed or just be a wet affair.

The Chiefs are a 3.5 favorite heading into tonight. The public is currently on the side of the Chiefs. 65% of bets are being placed on Chiefs -3.5. the public money is split 50-50 on the spread. The total for tonight’s game is 45.5 points. 64% of the bets and 63% of the money is on the over.

Game Odds

Chiefs Offense

The Chiefs’ offense has been slow out of the gates, mainly due to injuries and lack of a run game. Coming into tonight’s game, the team’s leading rusher is their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. that is not what you want from a championship level team. Mahomes has 22 rushes for 130 yards and 2 TDs. Those are decent numbers for a quarterback in an offense that does not design many quarterback runs. He is also the team’s leading passer, with 939 yards and 7 TDs. His main target has been Hollywood Brown who has 22 receptions for 209 yards and 1 TD. Looking at the big picture, the Chiefs offense is scoring 24.3 points per game, which is 14th in the league. They are averaging 221 yards through the air, which ranks them 12th. The run game is averaging 110 yards a game, which is 19th. tonight, they will have to take care of the ball if they want a chance to win. The Jags are the best team in terms of takeaway difference with +9 on the year. Some other things to keep in mind for this Chiefs offense is the health of Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce’s birthday. Worthy is dealing with an ankle injury that popped up on the flight to Florida. He brings an explosiveness to this offense that is much needed. Kelce just celebrated his 35th birthday and it is always tough to bet against marquee players on their birthdays (See Saquon and Cooper DeJean in the Superbowl).

Chiefs Defense

The Chiefs defense is allowing an average of 19 points per game, which is 8th in the league. They ae excelling against the pass, only allowing 185 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. Against the run, they have been vulnerable. They are allowing an average of 127 yards per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have a favorable matchup against a Jags offense that is struggling to move the ball through the air. If the Chiefs can get an early lead, they should be able to keep the Jags from getting back into the game. However, the Jags like to run the ball, which has been the Achilles heel of this Chiefs defense. If the Chiefs fall behind, the Jags might be able to run out the clock and steal a win from the Chiefs.

Jaguars Offense

The Jags offense is not necessarily blowing anyone away with their numbers, but they are proving to be more effective than previous years. Liam Coens offense is putting an emphasis on running the ball and not giving the ball away. As I mentioned above, they are +9 in the turnover difference. They are the 4th ranked rushing offense, averaging 144 yards per game. This attack is led by Travis Etienne, who is having a breakout year in this new offense. He has 65 rushes for 394 yards and 2 TDs. He has a favorable matchup against the Chiefs defense tonight. The Jacksonville pass attack is led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence, who is celebrating his birthday today, has thrown for 845 yards and 5 Tds. The receivers for the team are not helping much as the leading receiver is tight end Benton Strange. Brian Thomas Jr. has a bit of a sophomore slump and Travis Hunter has yet to have a meaningful impact on the offense. Overall, the offense is scoring 24 points per game, which is 16th in the NFL. Their pass game is averaging 204 yards per game, which is 18th in the league. It will be interesting to see how Liam Coens offense matches up against Steve Spagnuolos defense.

Jaguars Defense

The defense for the Jags is allowing an average of 18 points per game. that is 5th in the NFL. They are excelling against the run, allowing 82 yards per game which is 4th in the league. That is a very favorable matchup tonight, as the Chiefs struggle to run the ball at all. Against the pass, they are allowing 233 yards per game, which is 24th in the league. There will be opportunities for the Chiefs offense to move the ball through the air. Ultimately, the Jags will need to play mistake-free, complementary football in order to win this game tonight. Based on the weird outcomes of games this weekend, it would not be the biggest surprise if the Jags shut down the Chiefs.

Best Bet Background – Travis Etienne Rush Yards over 64.5

I’m leaning into the strength of the Jags and the weakness of the Chiefs for tonight’s best bet. Etienne is the clear-cut number 1 back for this Jaguars team. Liam Coen is clearly committed to running the ball. He relied heavily on his backs when he was the OC in Tampa Bay and has continued that philosophy in Jacksonville. Etienne has gone over this total in 3 of 4 games this year. He is averaging 98.5 yards a game so far. The way that these defenses have been playing, it looks like it could be a slugfest. The Jags are built to run the ball and are poised to have a productive night against a Chiefs team that has allowed running backs to have their way. Saquon Barkley ran for 88 yards against them. Cam Skattebo ran for 60 yards against. The combination of Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, and Lamar Jackson ran for 166 yards against them. Travis Etienne should be able to get more than 65 yards against them tonight.