Week 8 is here and so is our Best Bet and matchup analysis. Last week, we hit our Thursday Best Bet big. Tonight, we have the Vikings flying to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards over 49.5

Vikings @ Chargers

Match-up Overview and History

The Vikings are 3-3 and are headed to take on the 4-3 Chargers. These teams do not face each other that often. They have played against each other 15 times and the Vikings have the edge in the all-time series. They have won 8 of the 15 games against the Chargers. Both of these teams have been riding the roller coaster of the NFL season. Tonight’s game could go either way and no one would be surprised.

The Chargers are favored by 3 points in this game, and the points total is set at 44.5. 57% of the public bets are on the Vikings. 66% of the public money is on the Vikings. For the points total, 73% of the bets are on the over while 83% of the money is also on the over. The money line bets tell a different story. 75% of the bets and 57% of the money is on the Chargers to win. The public is obviously expecting a close game.

Game Odds

Vikings Offense

This Vikings offense finds itself in a very familiar situation. They are a high-powered offense in the need of stability at quarterback. They started the year with J.J McCarthy as the starter, which brought its own form of uncertainty. When he got hurt, they brought in Carson Wentz to take over the starting job. Wentz brings a chaotic form of football to this team that will make any game exciting. He has thrown for 1072 yards, 5TDs, and 4 Ints. His main target has been Justin Jefferson who has 34 catches for 528 yards and just 1 TD. The Vikings pass game is the 17th ranked pass game in the league, averaging 214 yards per game. On the ground, the leading rusher has been Jordan Mason, who has 380 yards and 4 TDs. He gets his running mate back tonight with Aaron Jones coming back from injury. The run game is averaging 103 yards per game, which is 20th in the league. In terms of points, they are averaging 24.2 points per game, which is 15th in the NFL. They face a tough defense that has been banged up but is well coached. It might be tough for the Vikings to take advantage tonight.

Vikings Defense

The Vikings defense is one of the better units in the NFL. They are allowing 20.8 points per game, which is 10th in the NFL. They excel against the pass. They are only allowing 184 pass yards per game, which is 7th in the NFL. They have struggled a bit more against the run, which is allowing 117 yards per game. That ranks them 18th in the league. They will be without OLB Andrew Van Ginkel tonight which is a key piece in this defense.

Chargers Offense

The Chargers offense has been facing a similar roller coaster ride as the Vikings. However, theirs has been brought on by a couple of key injuries to their offensive line. They have been without Rashawn Slater since the preseason and have been without Joe Alt for a few games. Alt is questionable for tonight. These two tackles were integral to protecting quarterback Justin Herbert and establishing the edge for the run game. Herbert has thrown for 1913 yards, 13 TDs, and 6 ints. He only had 3 interceptions all of last year. He has a trio of receivers that he can get the ball to, but he just needs to take better care of the ball. That trio consists of Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston. The leading receiver has been Keenan Allen who has 44 catches, 435 yards, and 4 Tds. The pass game as a whole has been incredibly effective. They are the third ranked pass offense, averaging 261 yards per game. The ground game has been less effective but that can be attributed to injuries on the offensive line and to the running back position. Both Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton have missed significant time due to injury. They have needed to turn to Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal. Haskins has also been dealing with injury, which means that Vidal is the lead back. In 2 starts, he has 31 carries for 162 yards.

Chargers Defense

Los Angeles is allowing 23.3 points per game, which is 18th in the league. They are excelling against the pass, allowing 192 yards per game which is the 8th ranked pass defense. On the ground, they struggle a little more, allowing 123 yards per game. That ranks them 19th in the league. They are getting a bit healthier on this side of the ball. Khalil Mack was on a pitch count last week and should be back to full strength tonight.

Best Bet Background – Keenan Allen Receiving Yards over 49.5

Keenan Allen returned to the Chargers this past year and has picked up where he left off with Justin Herbert. He just had his first 100+ yard game last week. On the season, he is averaging 62.1 yards per game. He had gone over tonight’s line in 5 of 7 games this year. Herbert is able to rely on Allen and will continue to go to him in big moments. In tonight’s game, they face a stingy pass defense which does not bode well for the Chargers offense. However, the Vikings have shown in recent weeks that they are vulnerable to the pass. They allowed 298 yards to the Eagles, 252 yards to the Browns, and 302 to the Steelers. None of these teams are particularly adept at throwing the ball. The Chargers have been hanging their hat on being able to throw the ball this year, especially with the absence of their run game. Look for Herbert to continue to feed the ball to Allen as the night progresses.