Our Best Bets went 0-4 yesterday. It was supposed to be a celebration of National Tight Ends Day and it did not live up to the hype of last year’s success. Not even Jamie was able to pick a winning bet. It was a rough day for betting and quite honestly, it was not a great day of ball. The only one score game was the Jets-Bengals game at 1 PM. Let’s hope that the game between the Commanders and Chiefs tonight proves to be more entertaining and profitable than yesterday. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards over 40.5

Commanders @ Chiefs

The 3-4 Commanders are traveling to Kansas City to take on the 4-3 Chiefs. The Chiefs are heavy favorites in this game. The sportsbooks are giving the Chiefs 10.5 points. The points total is set at 47.5. 70% of the public bets are being placed on the Chiefs to cover. 65% of the bets are being placed on the over.

Game Odds

Commanders Offense

The Commanders will be without starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels in tonight’s game. In his stead, Marcus Mariota will get the start. They will also be getting back two of their weapons with the return of Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin. They have not played too many snaps together, so it should be interesting to see how they mesh with Mariota as quarterback. This passing offense has been struggling in the early stages of the season. They are averaging 196 yards per game, which is 25th in the NFL. This poses an issue tonight as the Chiefs have been one of the best against the pass. Washington has been more effective on the ground, averaging 148 yards per game, which is 2nd in the league. Their leading rusher has been Bill Croskey-Merritt who has 73 rushes for 377 yards and 4 TDs. They also use the quarterback and Deebo Samuel in the run game which adds an element that might prove difficult for the Chiefs to defend. In terms of points, this offense is averaging 25.7 points per game, which is 9th in the league. They will have to bring their A-game tonight against a tough defense and a Chiefs team that can put up plenty of points.

Commanders Defense

Dan Quinn is known for his defense however, his Commanders defensive unit has not been too great this year. They are allowing 24.3 points per game, which is 21st in the league. They struggled against both the pass and run. There is a mix of aging vets and inexperienced young players that are struggling to stop anyone. They are allowing 238 pass yards per game, which is 25th in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 126 yards per game, which is 21st in the league. Given the speed and talent on the Chiefs offense, this defense could be in for a long night.

Chiefs Offense

After a slow start to the year, it appears that the Chiefs are back to where everyone expected them to be. They are 6th in the league in scoring, averaging 26.6 points per game. Patrick Mahomes has been playing at an MVP level and he finally has all of his weapons back on offense. They got Rashee Rice back from suspension last week. Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce are all healthy. Together, they have this Chiefs pass attack averaging 247 yards per game, which ranks 6th in the NFL. On the ground, they use a combination of Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith, and the legs of Mahomes to run the ball. They are averaging 123 yards per game, which is 12th in the NFL. This offense as a whole should be able to move the ball at will against a weak Commanders defense.

Chiefs Defense

To complement a high scoring offense is one of the leagues better defenses. The Chiefs defense is allowing 17.7 points per game, which is 3rd in the NFL. They are allowing 174 yards per game through the air, which is ranked 4th. Against the run, they are the 15th ranked defense, allowing 105 yards per game.

Best Bet Background – Travis Kelce Receiving Yards over 40.5

Let’s get some of our national tight end day mojo back. Kelce has gone over this mark in 6/7 games this year so far. He has been Mahomes’ safety blanket for years. They seemingly found their chemistry once again after having a down year last year. In last week’s game against the Raiders, Kelce turned back the clock a bit and had a catch for 40+ yards and finished the day with 54 yards before sitting in the 4th. The Commanders have struggled against the pass and do not have the personnel to defend all the speed on the outside while defending the middle. Kelce should be able to find areas to work and gain yards throughout the game.