Our Best Bets went 1-4 yesterday. They sit at 2-4 for the week. Let’s hope that the game between the Raiders and Cowboys tonight proves to be more profitable than yesterday. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Geno Smith Pass Yards Over 231.5

Cowboys @ Raiders

The 3-5-1 Cowboys are traveling to Las Vegas to take on the 2-7 Raiders. It is not a particularly exciting matchup for a primetime game, but football has a way of delivering, so this may end up being a good game. These teams have faced each other 13 times. The Raiders have won 7 of those games. The last matchup between these teams was on November 25, 2021 and it was a 36-33 Raiders win.

The Cowboys are a 3.5 -point favorite in this game and the point total is set at 49.5. 94% of the public bets are on the Cowboys to win while 96% of the public money are on the Cowboys. 73% of the bets are on the Cowboys to cover while 62% of the money are also on them to cover. The public clearly believes that Dallas is going to win and do so handedly. The public is more split on the points total. 55% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the over.

Game Odds

Cowboys Offense

An explanation for the betting percentages tonight would be the way that th Cowboys operate. They have one of the highest scoring offenses while having one of the most points allowed on defense. Their offense is scoring 29.2 points per game, which is 4th in the NFL. They are led primarily by their passing attack and Dak Prescott. They are averaging 257 yards per game, which is 3rd in the NFL. They have Dak playing at a high level aided by a dynamic duo of receivers. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are probably one of the best receiving tandems in the league at the moment. They both force defenses to defend the explosive plays. On the ground, the Cowboys are averaging 120 yards per game, which is 13th in the NFL. The run game is led by Javonte Williams, who has had a nose for the endzone. He has 8 TDs on the year and would be worth betting on for an anytime TD tonight. The Cowboys might be slowed down by a Raiders defense that has been holding their own, despite a tough conference and schedule.

Cowboys Defense

The Achilles heel for this Cowboys team has been their defense. They are allowing 30.8 points per game, which is 31st in the NFL. Against the pass, they are allowing 254 yards per game, which is 29th in the league. On the ground, they are allowing 143 yards per game, which is 28th in the league. They have a habit of making opposing quarterbacks look great as they typically are having career days against Dallas. This defense does get a boost tonight however. They just traded for Quinnen Williams, who will be a big force in the run game. They also get back DeMarvion Overshown tonight, who will help in the pass rush. The Cowboys will also be playing with an emotional edge tonight as it is the first game since the death of Marshan Kneeland.

Raiders Offense

The Raiders offense has not been good this season. They are averaging 15.4 points per game, which is 31st in the league. They have been struggling to move the ball at all. Quarterback Geno Smith has been having his worst year since returning as a starter. In fact, he is almost a lock to throw an interception in every game. The pass game overall has been averaging 185 yards per game. This will not be helped by the recent departure of their starting receiver, Jakobi Meyers. On the ground, they are averaging 87 yards per game, which is 29th in the league. Rookie running back, Ashton Jeanty, has yet to live up to the lofty expectations under which he was drafted. He has 547 yards and 4 TDs on the year. If there was ever a defense to get right against, it would be the Dallas defense tonight.

Raiders Defense

Compared to the offense, the Raiders defense has not been too terrible. They are allowing 24.4 points per game, which is 20th in the NFL. They are allowing 214 pass yards per game, which is 16th in the league. They are allowing 106 yards per game, which is 14th in the league. There are players like Maxx Crosby on this team that can create plays and turnovers. However, they have not gotten much help from their offense, and it has led to 7 losses. Tonight, the script might be flipped as the Raider offense has a chance to perform and carry the team, while the defense has their work cut out for them.

Best Bet Background – Geno Smith Pass Yards Over 231.5

Tonight’s best bet is more a product of the Dallas defense than it is of the Raiders offense. The Dallas defense, particularly the pass defense, has been bad this year. They have allowed quarterbacks like Russ Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, and Justin Fields to pick apart their secondary. Tonight, it is Geno’s turn. He will be relying on Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, and Tyler Lockett to get the job done. The Cowboys will most likely be able to score points on offense, which means that this will be somewhat competitive tonight. The Raiders do not have much success running the ball and the Cowboys just bulked up their run defense at the trade deadline. I think that the Raiders re going to be throwing the ball to stay in this game and will have the right matchup to put up some big numbers.