NFL Week 12: Thursday Analysis and Best Bet

Week 12 is here and so is our Best Bet and matchup analysis. Last week,we went 3-4 on our Best Bets. We have hit the previous 2 Bets, so I am hoping that primetime continues to be good to us and make it 3 in a row. Tonight, we have a game between the Bills and Texans. I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Xavier Hutchinson Receiving Yards over 14.5

Bills @ Texans

Match-up Overview and History

The 7-3 Bills are traveling to Houston to take on the 5-5 Texans. Both teams are coming off of a win this previous, and this game tonight could have some major AFC playoff implications. The Bills are trying to keep pace with the Patriots in their division, and the Texans are trying to get themselves over .500 as they make a late season push for the playoffs. These teams have played each other 12 times with the Texans winning 7 of those games. The last game was October 6, 2024, and that was a 23-20 Houston victory.

The Bills are 5.5-point favorites coming into tonight and the point total is being set a 43.5. 77% of the public bets are being placed on the Bills to cover 5.5 points. 85% of the public money is also being placed on the Bills. The public is more evenly split on the point totals. 54% of the bets and 50% of the money is being placed on the over.

Game Odds

Bills Offense

Buffalo has one of the best offenses in the league right now. they are averaging 29.2 points per game, which is 4th in the league. They are being led by their MVP quarterback Josh Allen. Allen is coming off of a game where he had 3 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. This was 1 of 3 times in NFL history that this has happened. 1 of the times was Otto Graham. The other time was Josh Allen. He will need to put on a similar performance tonight against one of the league’s best defenses. Allen has this passing game averaging 239 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. His legs, in addition to James Cook, has the run game averaging 147 yards per game, which leads the league. Again, tonight will be a true test for this Bills offense as a whole against the best defense in the league.

Bills Defense

On defense, the Bills are allowing 22.9 points per game, which is 14th in the league. At times, his defense has looked dominant. At other times, they look like they cannot stop anyone. They have been pretty effective against the pass. They are allowing 169 yards per game, which is 2nd in the league. Against the run is where they struggle. They are allowing 153 yards per game, which is 31st in the league. The strengths and weaknesses of this defense do match up fairly well against a Texans offense that does not move too efficiently.

Texans Offense

The Texans are averaging 22 points per game, which is 21st in the league. They come into this game without their starting quarterback, C.J Stroud. Stroud has been dealing with a concussion which has led to Davis Mills getting his 3rd straight start. They are 2-1 in the previous 3 games where Mills saw significant time. The only loss was an 18-15 loss to the Broncos. That was the game that Stroud left early, and Mills was thrown into action. Since then, Mills led a miraculous comeback against the Jaguars and helped edge out a win over the Titans. Tonight, will be a test against a talented but inconsistent Bills defense. The Texans as a whole, has been middle of the road. They are averaging 222 yards per game, which is 16th in the league. On the ground, they have a 1-2 punch with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. However, they struggle to move the ball with any kind of consistency and are missing the presence of Joe Mixon. As a whole, they are averaging 107 rush yards per game, which is 23rd in the NFL. The Bills have shown themselves to be vulnerable to the run, particularly bigger physical backs. This could be an opportunity for someone like Nick Chubb to have a big game.

Texans Defense

The true strength of this team is the defense. They are allowing 16.3 points per game, which is 1st in the league. The defensive front with Danielle Hunter and Wil Anderson is probably the best in the game right now. They are not letting teams move the ball on them at all. They are allowing 171 yards per game through the air, which is 3rd in the NFL. They are also the 3rd ranked run defense, allowing 87 yards per game. This will probably be the best test for this defense.

Best Bet Background – Xavier Hutchinson Receiving Yards over 14.5

Not many people are going to know about Xavier Hutchinson. He is an unsung receiver on the Texans ad all this man does is catch 2-3 balls a game for 15+ yards. He is averaging 2.4 receptions and 26.4 yards per game. Of the 9 games that he has played in this year, he has gone over 14.5 yards 8 times. He is a model of consistency. This year, he has a 70.6% catch rate when targeted. There has only been 1 game where he did not register more than 1 reception, which was his worst game this year. That came against the Seahawks Since that game, he has had totals of 69, 30, and 42 yards. He has seen a target uptick with Davis Mills in a quarterback. Regardless of the game script, he has been involved in the box score. Let’s have this incredibly consistent receiver start off Week 12 with a W.