Our Best Bets went 0-4 yesterday. The negative sweep. They sit at 2-6 for the week. At this point, I won’t take any offense if you start to fade my picks. In fact, it might be the actual best bet moving forward. Tonight is our chance to get a win for the road. Tonight, we have the Giants and the Patriots playing on Monday Night Football. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Jaxson Dart Passing + Rushing Yards over 234.5

Giants @ Patriots

The 2-10 Giants are traveling to Foxborough to take on the 10-2 Patriots. These teams have plenty of history facing off against one another and have played a total of 14 games. The all time series is tied at 7-7. The most recent game was a 10-7 Giants win on November 26th, 2023. That was the game that allowed the Patriots to draft Drake Maye.

The Patriots are a 7.5 point favorite and the total is set at 46.5 points. The public bets and money are being placed on the Patriots to win outright. 92% of the bets and 87% of the money is being placed on the Patriots money line. There is a more even split on the spread with 55% of the bets and 57% of the money being placed on the Patriots -7. The public seems to be expecting a high scoring affair with 58% of the bets and 67% of the money being placed on the over.

Game Odds

Giants Offense

The Giants get their rookie star quarterback back tonight with Jaxson Dart returning to action. He has provided a spark for this team every game that he has played. This will be his first game playing under interim head coach, Mike Kafka. Kafka has been the offensive coordinator for this team prior to taking over for the fired Brian Daboll. With him calling the plays, this offense is scoring 22 points per game, which is 22nd in the NFL. They have struck a decent balance on how they move the ball. They are averaging 224 pass yards per game, which is 13th in the league. On the ground, they are averaging 124 yards per game, which is 9th in the league. Dart has the ability to run and has shown that he is not afraid to take off on long runs. He also has been scrambling to buy himself time to throw the ball down field. If he manages to slide when carrying the ball, he should be able to have a big impact on this game.

Giants Defense

Defensively, the Giants have been one of the worst units in the league. This led to the firing of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen last week. In his place, Mike Kafka elevated outside linebackers coach, Charlie Bullen. He takes over a squad that is allowing 27.8 points per game, which is 30th in the league. They have been allowing a ton of yards on the ground and are the worst team in the league against the run. Opponents are averaging 157 yards per game. Through the air, it has not been much better with them allowing 227 yards per game, which is 23rd in the NFL. They get some key players back tonight with their starting corner, Paulson Adebo, and their starting safety, Jevon Holland, having a clean bill of health. This defense has performed well in the first 3 quarters of games. It has just been the 4th quarter that has proved to be an issue for this defense. Perhaps a new play caller can solve these issues but that remains to be seen.

Patriots Offense

The Patriots have the 7th highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 26.5 points per game. They are led by their young quarterback, Drake Maye, who has taken the league by storm this year. He has the passing game ranked 6th, averaging 247 yards per game. Him and his receivers will have a great matchup tonight against a Giants defense that has let up a ton of yards. An even better matchup will be the run game. The Patriots are averaging 112 yards per game, which is 19th in the league. While the ranking might not be that impressive, the Giants have shown themselves to be incredibly vulnerable against the run. All that being said, the Patriots are coming into this game missing their starting left tackle and left guard, which could be more problematic than people anticipate coming into this matchup.

Patriots Defense

Defensively, the Patriots have taken on the identity of their coach, Mike Vrabel. They are allowing 18.8 points per game, which is 6th in the league. They have a stout run defense, allowing just 87 yards per game, which is 2nd in the league. Against the pass, they are ranked 17th allowing 213 yards per game. They should matchup well against this Giants offense but they will need to remain disciplined against Jaxson Dart and an offensive play caller that is not afraid to thrown in gadget plays.( See Jameis Winston’s receiving TD against Detroit).

Best Bet Background – Jaxson Dart Passing + Rushing Yards over 234.5

Dart comes back into action after missing 2 games with a concussion. Prior to missing time, he has shown to be an offensive weapon that just moves the ball. He has gone over this mark in 4 of his last 5 games. He is averaging 202 pass yards and 45 rush yards in his 7 starts. The Patriots might not let him run but they are susceptible in the pass game. The only concern might be his ability to stay in the game. He has shown to be reckless when running the ball so I would imagine that Mike Kafka is going to stay away from the designed quarterback runs. However, when he gets completive, he should be able to find some yards when scrambling. I would expect him to continue to produce in both facets, resulting in over 235 total yards.