NFL Week 15: Thursday Analysis and Best Bet

Week 15 is here and so is our Best Bet and matchup analysis. Last week, we went 4-1 on our Best Bets. We have the Falcons and the Bucs facing off against one another in a NFC South matchup. I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Bucky Irving Rush + Rec Yards over 82.5

Falcons @ Buccaneers

Match-up Overview and History

The 4-9 Falcons are traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the 7-6 Buccaneers. These teams have played each other 64 times, and the all-time series is tied at 32-32. The most recent game was earlier this year when the Bucs won 23-20.

The Bucs are favored tonight by 5.5 points. The point total is set at 43.5. The public is favoring the Bucs with 64% of the bets and 64% of the money being placed on the Bucs -5.5. They are expecting a high scoring affair as well with 64% of the bets and 68% of the money being placed on the over.

Game Odds

Falcons Offense

The Atlanta offense has not lived up to their potential this season. They are scoring 19.4 points per game, which is 27th in the league. Despite all the weapons on offense, they are struggling to find the endzone. Through the air, they are averaging 206 yards per game, which is 18th. They lost their starting quarterback, Michael Penix, to a torn ACL a few weeks ago. Kirk Cousins has stepped in. He will be without his best receiver tonight with Drake London missing in action. That means that the offense is going to run through Bijan Robinson. That does not bode well for the Falcons as the Bucs are solid against the run and the Falcons are averaging 123 yards per game. That is the 12th ranked run attack. They will have to rely on the arm of Kirk if they hope to win this game tonight.

Falcons Defense

The defense has not been doing much to help this team out. They are allowing 24.1 points per game, which is 20th in the league. They excel against the pass, only allowing 191 yards per game, which is 9th in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 131 yards per game, which is 24th. Typically, this would not matchup well against the Bucs but Tampa Bay have not been playing well recently. The NFC South has a habit of hosting wild games and tonight could be one of them.

Bucs Offense

The Bucs offense has been injured all year. Tonight, will be the first time that they have Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin on the field at the same time. The pass offense has been struggling without these key players. They are averaging 199 yards per game, which is 20th in the league. Baker Mayfield has been playing injured which might help explain the dip in production and wins. On the ground, they are also ranked 20th, averaging 115 yards per game. The offense overall, is scoring 23 points per game. That is 17th in the league. Tonight, might be the best chance for them to right the ship and start getting ready for the playoff push.

Bucs Defense

The Tampa Bay defense is allowing 25 points per game, which is 23rdf in the league. This is certainly not the standard that you have come to expect from a Todd Bowles defense. They are stout against the run, allowing 100 yards a game. That is ranked 8th in the league. Against the pass is where they are weak. They are allowing 237 yards per game, which is 27th in the league. We will see how they matchup against this struggling Atlanta offense.

Best Bet Background – Bucky Irving Rush + Rec Yards over 82.5

The winner of tonight’s game will be whichever team gets the ball to their backs. The Bucs get a lot of their pass catchers back on the field tonight, which I believe will open the run game. Bucky Irving has been back in the lineup for the past couple of games and he has a great matchup tonight. The Falcons are allowing 131 rush yards per game. Bucky is averaging 98.6 total yards per game this season. He could potentially run for this over, but the Bucs like to use him in the pass game as well. I would expect Bucky to have a big game tonight.