Week 2 Sunday Matchups

Week 2 is here. We started off the week by continuing our Best Bet hot streak with the Bills mL bet on Thursday night. We have another full slate of games today. Across the league, passing yards were down in week 1. There were only two quarterbacks that went over 300 yards. The Thursday night game continued the trend with Josh Allen throwing for 139 yards in the Bills victory. Due to the cyclical nature of the NFL, it appears that we are in the part of the cycle where running backs are back to being relied upon heavily in offenses. That will be the common theme for a lot of my bet selections. The books do not seem like they have set the correct line for a lot of running back yardage, specifically the receiving yards.

To start, I’ll highlight the best value bets that I can find. I’ve gone through the slate and picked five Best Bets and provided some background on each. I have put together a parlay for the day as well. I am also including some other bets that I like and am leaning towards placing. Let’s make some money.

Best Bets

All odds taken from FanDuel

Justice Hill Rec Yards o14.5 (-110)
Brian Robinson Rec Yds o11.5 (-110)
JK Dobbins o 58.5 Rush Yds (-110)
Pacheco Rush + Rec Yds o87.5(-114)
Caleb Williams u214.5 Pass Yds(-113)

Best Bet Background – Justice Hill Rec Yds o14.5

Justice Hill saw heavy usage in the pass game in the week 1 matchup against the Chiefs. He acted as the safety net option for Lamar Jackson in the passing game. The Ravens struggled to get the ball down field which meant that the running backs were heavily involved. A lot of this was related to the pressure that Kansas City was able to generate. Chris Jones and the rest of the KC defensive line took advantage of the Ravens poor offensive line play. As a result, Lamar was unable to push the ball downfield and relied on his legs and his short yardage throws. This resulted in Hill having 6 catches on 8 targets for 52 yards.

Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins will present a similar challenge this week. While they gave up a ton of yards to the run against the Chargers, one offensive line is not the same caliber as the other. One week will not have improved the chemistry of the new offensive line for the Ravens. Expect Jackson to play a similar game as last week. He will be under pressure when he drops back which will force him to run it himself and use his running back to dump the ball off to. Hopefully, this one will hit within the first quarter.

Best Bet Background – Brian Robinson Rec Yds o11.5

In week 1, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler led the Commanders in receptions and receiving yards. Rookie Quarterback, Jayden Daniels, clearly used his backs as his main targets in his debut. In a similar situation to the Ravens, the gameplan appeared to be run with the quarterback and use short throws to move the ball down the field.

The Commanders face the Giants this week who are coming off a tough loss to the Vikings. In recent history, the Giants have owned the Commanders. Giants are 3-1-1 in the last 5 matchups. The Giants play a defense with 4 down linemen and focus on preventing the down field passes. Their defensive line failed to live up to their hype last week but the Commanders offensive line is not as talented as the Minnesota line. Jayden will be under pressure and rely on his legs and his running backs again this week. The line being 11.5 for Robinson who had 3 catches on 4 targets and 49 yards seems low. Expect Robinson to be involved in the pass game once again today.

Best Bet Background – J.K Dobbins Rush Yds o58.5

J.K Dobbins only had 2 carries in the first half of the week 1 game against the Raiders. He then exploded in the second half with 8 carries and ended with a total of 135 yards on the day. The Chargers are clearly built to run the ball. They ran the ball 27 times compared to 26 pass attempts last week. the Greg Roman offense is going to continue to pound the rock and utilize multiple tight ends and running backs to attack their opponents.

Their week 2 opponent are the Carolina Panthers who are coming off of an embarrassing blowout loss to the Saints. In that loss, they allowed 180 yards of rushing. This week, they received news that their best defensive tackle, Derrick Brown, might be out for the season. That leaves a huge gap up front in a defensive unit that already struggles. I would expect the Chargers to continue to run the ball and will meet little resistance this week as they roll into Carolina.

Best Bet Background – Isiah Pacheco Rush + Rec Yds o87.5

The Chiefs won a thriller against the Ravens in week 1. Plenty of big plays were had and ultimately it came down to an Isiah Likely toe out of bounds to seal the win for the Chiefs. In that win, Isiah Pacheco saw some heavy involvement but had trouble finding space to run against tough Ravens defense. That being said, he ran the ball 15 times for 45 yards and added 2 catches for 33 yards. Outside of Mahomes scrambling, only two only players recorded a carry for the Chiefs. That was Xavier Worthy and Carson Steele who combined for 3 touches. It is clear that Pacheco is the lead back and will continue to be fed the ball.

The week 2 matchup against the Bengals should present plenty of opportunities for Pacheco to have himself a big game. The Bengals were stunned by the Patriots last week. The Patriots used their run game to advance the ball and had a ton of success in doing so. Rhamondre Stevenson ran the ball 25 times for 120 yards against this Bengals defense. The Chiefs have much more firepower on offense, so they won’t be running the ball as much as the Patriots did. However, the weakness of this Bengals defense does appear to be the run game and Andy Reid showed last year that he is willing to run the ball if it wins them games. The last time that these teams faced off, Pacheco ran the ball for 130 yards. Adding in his receiving yards, he totaled 165 yards. He will have plenty of opportunities to gain 88 total yards against this struggling Bengals defense.

Best Bet Background – Caleb Williams Pass Yds u214.5

Caleb Williams struggled in his rookie debut. He went 14/29 for 93 yards and 0 tds. The Bears were able to pull out a win due to their defense and special teams. The rookie quarterback has shown early signs of inaccuracy with his passes. That should improve with time. He also had a few sacks that looked like he was trying to scramble like he did in college but was unable to escape the rush. He was very lucky that the other side of the ball came to play and bailed him out. This week, they face a much tougher opponent in the Houston Texans.

The Texans and Bears face off on Sunday Night Football. Last week, the Texans had a wild game with the Colts which they ultimately won. Despite making a highlight throw for over 60 yards, Anthony Richardson completed only 9 passes against this Texans defense. It was impressive that he was able to collect 212 yards on just 9 completions. AR is different type of quarterback and athlete than Caleb Williams. Williams will most likely continue to struggle this week. Two of his main weapons, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, are slated as game time decisions to even play. Hopefully Williams can have a better outing than he did last week but it is hard to see where he would find the extra yards to hit over 214 yards through the air.