Week 4 is starting off with an NFC East rivalry. Following a great start to the season, we are going to run it back with our Black Dog Best Bets. After a hot start, we had a back-and-forth week 2 and then hit a wall in week 3. Our Best Bets went 2-4 and brought the season total to 11-7. We got back in the lab and hit our most recent 2 Best Bets, so we are going to try and keep this new streak going. Let’s go through the Thursday night matchup between the Giants and the Cowboys.

First things first, the pick:

Best Bet

Devin Singletary Rush + Rec Yards o81.5 (-114) FanDuel

Background

The Giants and the Cowboys have been rivals for a long time. There is a ton of history here. Recent history has not been kind to the Giants. The Cowboys are 9-1 in the last 10 matchups. Giants fans have been able to write these two games off as losses every year whenever the schedule is released. Typically, the best play here would be to bet on the Cowboys -5.5. However, this year, the Cowboys are not the same team that they typically are. They are more vulnerable this year as they are coming off back-to-back losses to the Saints and Ravens. The Giants are coming off a momentum building win in Cleveland. Both teams are currently 1-2 and desperately need to win this game.

The Giants offense got off to a slow start against the Vikings in week 1. They failed to score a touchdown and Daniel Jones threw 2 interceptions. In week 2, they played much better. They scored 3 touchdowns and only lost to the Commanders because their kicker was injured on the opening kickoff. (And the defense could not stop the Washington offense). Last week, they got rolling in the first half against the Browns. They scored 21 points in the first half. One touchdown was scored by Devin Singletary and the other two were caught by Malik Nabers. Nabers has clearly been a focal point for this offense to start the season. He was targeted 18 times against Washington and 12 times against the Browns. Those targets have led to 18 catches, 205 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The Dallas pass defense is currently 14th in pass yards allowed by allowing 187 yards per game. Nabers will most likely be able to continue to produce and I would look at possibly taking his over (72.5 yds) as well. However, the true weakness of this Cowboys defense is their rush defense. They rank 32nd (last) in the league in rush yards allowed. In addition to allowing the most rush yards in the league, they have also let running backs hurt them in the pass game. Last week, Justice Hill and Derrick Henry had 44 yards through the air, in addition to their 184 rushing yards. Alvin Kamara had 65 receiving yards in addition to his 115 rush yards. Even against the Browns, who running backs are not that great, they allowed 45 yards receiving to the backs. Devin Singletary has been an effective runner for the Giants and is used in the screen game. He had 95 rush yards against the Commanders. Against the Browns, he ran for 65 yards and caught 4 balls for 43 yards. He is going to be given the ball one way or the other against this Cowboys defense that struggles against running backs.

The Cowboys offense is built to score points. They are averaging 25.2 points per game which is 6th in the league. They accomplish this primarily through the air. Their pass game is averaging 269 yards a game which is the best in the league. Conversely, they are the worst in the league at running the ball. They face a Giants defense that has struggled against the pass and is down 2 key corners in Adoree Jackson and Dru Phillips. This should open up ample opportunities for CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Brandin Cooks to have a big day in New York. Another bet that I would like is Lambs receiving over (79.5). He typically carves up the Giants as well. In 8 games against the Giants, he averages 6.5 receptions and 90.25 yards a game. He has also scored 3 touchdowns. Due to their inability to run the ball, I would expect an air raid against this banged up secondary. That being said, this could be the breakout game for the Cowboys running backs. The Giants defense is 23rd in rush yards allowed. They would most likely be worse if the Browns stuck with the run at all. Whenever Dexter Lawrence goes to the sideline, you can expect to see the Boys running wild. However, the bulk of their offense will be through the air. Look for the Cowboys to light up the scoreboard tonight.

TNF Parly: Odds: +212

• M.Nabers 50+ Rec Yards
• C.Lamb 50+ Rec Yards
• B.Cooks 25+ Rec Yards
• D.Singletary 40+ Rush Yards

I actually love a bunch of the props for this game so I threw together a parlay for tonight. I am expecting the defenses to struggle and the offenses to flourish.