We have had a great week of football so far. From a pure entertainment standpoint, it would be hard to say that any other week outshone Sundays slate. The 4th quarter of the 1 PM windows came down to final possessions, lead changes, and long field goals for the win. The 4 PM window featured defensive touchdowns in each of the matchups. From a betting perspective, we went 2-2 on Best Bets and Jamie once again failed to pick a winner. Our Best Bets for the week is sitting at 3-2 which makes tonight’s matchup critical to keeping our winning percentage above 60%. I’m switching up the format a bit here, but I will provide some background on the matchup itself and then breakdown what that means for the Best Bet.

First things first, the Best Bet

Best Bet

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards o33.5 (-110) FanDuel

Saints @ Chiefs

The 2-2 Saints fly into Arrowhead to face the 4-0 Chiefs. There is not a ton of recent history between these two teams. They have faced each other only 5 times since 2004. The most recent game was a 32-29 Kansas City victory in 2020. These teams are very different this time around.

The Chiefs are undefeated yet they are not playing their best football. Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in each of the four games that the Chiefs have played. Travis Kelce has gotten off to his slowest start of his career. They have lost key players at key positions, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Offseason free agent signing, Hollywood Brown, is out for the year. They lost their leading wide receiver, Rashee Rice, to a knee injury last week. Their leading rusher, Isiah Pacheco, is also out for an extended period of time as he is currently on IR.

Despite all of these negative factors, the Chiefs remain the Chiefs. The offense ranks 14th in the league by averaging 23 points a game. While the offensive numbers are not what we would typically expect from them, they are still 11th in the league in pass yards averaging 215 yards a game. They are 15th in the league or rushing by averaging 112 yards a game. Despite all of their injuries and struggles so far, their offense has still found a way to be in the top half of the league so far. Mahomes is leading the pass game with 904 yards and 6 TDs. He will need to take better care of the ball in order to sustain this win streak. As his top target is out, he will need to get Travis Kelce going in the pass game.

Much like last season, their success is due to their defense. Their defense is 7th in the league while allowing only 18 points a game. The strength of the defense has been their run game as they are 8th in the league by allowing 99 yards a game. If there was a weakness to go after on this defense, it would be their pass defense. They are allowing 227 yards a game which ranks them 23rd in the NFL this year. They are matched up against a Saints team that likes to throw the ball around the yard, so they will have their hands full trying to slow down this offense.

On the New Orleans side of the field, they got off to an incredibly hot start in weeks 1 and 2. They blew out the Panthers and the Cowboys in each respective week. They scored over 40 points and it looked like they were going to be an unstoppable offense with how they were playing. However, they came back down to earth against the Eagles in week 3 and lost a heartbreaker to the Falcons in week 4. They will look to get back on track with a big win against the Super Bowl champs in their own house tonight.

The Saints will need to return to form on offense if they want to stand a chance in the game tonight. The first year under offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, looked to be the next best offense in the game. They are currently the highest scoring offense in the NFL with an average of 31.8 points per game. They have accomplished this through a fairly balanced attack. They are averaging 201 pass yards a game which is 19th in the league. They would most likely have been ranked higher but they were up so early in weeks 1 and 2 that they relied more heavily on their run game. That is reflected in the rush numbers as well as they are averaging 147 yards a game which puts them at 7th in the league. QB Derek Carr will rely on weapons such as Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara to put up points on a strong Kansas City defense.

The Saints defense is going to have their hands full defending an Andy Reid offense. So far this year, they have been one of the better defenses in the league. They are allowing 17.5 points a game which is 6th in the league. Their big leads have skewed some of their yards but that should not be held against them. Against the run, they are ranked 7th allowing 96 yards a game. Through the air, they rank 25th and are allowing 233 yards a game. They were gashed by the Eagles in their week 3 loss for 460 total yards and allowed the Falcons to gain 315 yards on them last week. There will be opportunities for the Kansas City offense against this team so the Saints will need to show up on defense to stand a chance against the champs.

Best Bet Background

The Chiefs are susceptible against the pass. They have allowed over 225 yards through air in 3 out of the 4 games that they have played. The only team not to accomplish that feat was the Chargers who are built to run the ball (and the Chiefs only allowed 55 yards on the ground against them). The Chiefs have been solid defending the run which does not bode well for Kamara to have a big game on the ground, however that will open the door for Alvin Kamara to make a big impact through the air.

The Saints offense needs Kamara to touch the ball in order to score points. They are going to look for ways to get him the ball. A staple of the Spagnuolo defense is getting pressure on the quarterback. One way to slow down the rush is to use running back screens. Kamara has been used in the pass game throughout his career. He averages 41.8 yards per game in his career. This year, he has gone over the 33-yard mark in 3 out of 4 of the games. In one of those games, he ripped off a 57-yard catch and run for a touchdown. He should be getting the ball in the pass game and is dangerous when he gets into the open field. For that reason, his receiving over is the Best Bet for tonight.