Week 6 Thursday Matchup

It is hard to believe that we are already on Week 6. This season is flying by. Through 5 weeks, our Best Bets have a record of 18-12, which means that 60% of our Best Bets have been hitting. While this is good and above the 52.4% that is needed to beat the books in the long run, we are aiming to be better. That starts this week with the Thursday night bets. We have yet to hit a no sweat parlay this year. That changes tonight as well. We are going to get Week 6 started off on the right foot by cashing both our Best Bet and our Thursday Night Parlay.

First things first, the Best Bet

Best Bet

Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards o13.5 (-110) FanDuel

49ers @ Seahawks

These NFC West rivals have had plenty of matchups over the years. The all-time record is 30-22 in Seattle’s favor. However, the recent matchups have been won by San Francisco. They are 5-0 in the last 5 games. Seattle is 3-2 on the season but is coming off of two straight losses to the Lions and the Giants. The 49ers have gotten off to a slow start and are 2-3. They are coming off of a close loss to the Cardinals on Sunday. Both teams are going to have plenty to prove in this divisional matchup. The division is underperforming so far so it is anyone’s race to win at this point.

The 49ers offense is still missing its biggest weapon in Christian McCaffrey. In his stead, Jordan Mason has performed admirably. He has 105 rushes for 536 yards and 3 touchdowns. He leads the NFL in rush attempts and is second in rush yards. His receiving production is where they are missing CMC. For the team at large, there are talks of the dreaded Super Bowl runner-up hangover. Of the 3 games that they have lost, 2 have been division games where they should have won if they were able to close. However, they have not been able to lock these games up and as the old saying goes, you are what your record says you are.

That being said, the 9ers have a productive offense despite their record. They are scoring 25.2 points a game which is 10th in the NFL. They are able to move the ball by using a balanced approach. They rank 4th in pass yards with 263 yards a game and are 7th in rush yards with 144 yards a game. They have been waiting for a Brandon Aiyuk breakout game and they got it last week in the loss to the Cards. They will need him and Mason to have another big day to put up points on a banged-up Seattle defense and use the run game to close out the win.

On defense, they have been decent as well. They rank 12th with 21.2 points allowed per game. They are 12th in pass yards allowed, allowing 197 yards a game and are 9th against the run, allowing 110 yards a game. Based on the stats, it is hard to figure out why this team has been unable to win games. They will have the chance to turn their season around tonight.

The Seahawks are the middle of tough three game stretch where they played the Lions on Monday night football, a late Sunday afternoon game against the Giants, and now a Thursday night matchup against the 9ers. Looking at the injury report, it appears that it is taking its toll. they will be without starting corner, Riq Woolen, on defense. Safety Julian Love, lineman Leonard Williams, and Cameron Young are all banged up. They will be without outside linebacker, Uchenna Nwosu as well. They are getting thin on defense. A few players on offense, such as Dk Metcalf, Noah Fant, and Laviska Shenault all popped up on the injury report. It has been tough sledding, and it does not get any easier tonight.

The Seattle offense has been their strength so far this year. They are 11th in the league with 24.4 points a game. They are built to move the ball through the air. They rank 3rd in pass yards with 270 yards a game. This is reflected in Geno Smiths numbers as well. He leads the league in passes completed, passes attempted, and passing yards. It also happens to be his birthday today. Despite having two solid runners in Walker and Charbonnet, they do not run the ball well. They rank 22nd in rush yards with 105 yards per game. They will need to rely more on their backs in order to have a more balanced attack.

The Seattle defense is a mirror image of the offense. They are middle of the road in terms of points allowed. They rank 17th by allowing 22.8 points a game. They excel against the pass by allowing 183 yards per game which is 7th in the league. However, they are 20th in the league against the run by allowing 128 yards a game. These stats need further digging as you need to look at who they have played this year. The first three games that they played were against the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins. All three of those teams do not pass the ball well. With the injuries mounting up and a matchup against a good passing offense, this defense could potentially have one of their worst outings this year.

Best Bet Background

Charbonnet has hit this total in 5 straight games. He is averaging 3 receptions a game with an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Ever since Kenneth Walker III has come back from injury, Charbonnet’s rush attempts have gone down but he has become more involved in the pass game. He faces a tough 9ers defense that can get after the quarterback. As you might know from some of my other picks, I tend to like running backs receiving yards as an antidote to pass rush. The Seahawks do not use their backs to run the ball. With Charbonnet becoming more involved in the pass game, we could potentially get this covered in the first half.

Thursday Night Parlay (+414)