Another crazy Sunday where we started at 9:30 AM and had almost non-stop football until 11:30 PM. We once again went 2-2 on Best Bets and Jamie once again failed to pick a winner. Our Best Bets for the week is sitting at 3-2 which makes tonight’s matchup critical to keeping our winning percentage at 60%. We have an AFC East matchup tonight between the Bills and the Jets. Plenty of storylines to get into on both sides but first things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards o58.5 (-110) FanDuel

Bills @ Jets

Another primetime game for the AFC East. The 3-2 Bills are traveling to New Jersey to take on the 2-3 Jets. Whoever wins this game, will be in 1st place for the division. There is plenty of history between these two teams. In the last 5 matchups, the Bills have a 3-2 edge with the most recent game being a 32-6 Buffalo win. The all-time record is 69-58 in Buffalo’s favor.

The Bills come limping into this game on a 2-game losing streak. They have lost to the Ravens and Texans in back-to-back weeks. To add injury to insult, their injury report is extensive. Josh Allen is dealing with a hand injury and is coming off of a game where he probably should have been benched due to a concussion. His top target, Khalil Shakir, is out again. The defense is missing several starters, and some are playing through injury. They face a Jets team with something to prove which may prove to be too tall of a task this week.

The Bills offense has changed their identity from a pass first offense to a running offense. This was always going to be the case when they moved on from Stefon Diggs, drafted Dalton Kincaid, and started involving James Cook much more. The numbers reflect this change. The Bills are averaging 118 rush yads a game, which is 14th in the league. The pass game is ranked 24th with them averaging 181 yards a game. Despite the change to the run and some mounting injuries, the Bills are ranked 3rd in points scored and are averaging 28.4 points a game. They averaged 15 points over the last two games (losses) and will need to get back on track in order to beat the Jets. It is a tough ask as they face one of the better defenses in the league.

On defense, the Bills have been losing starters in key positions. They lost linebacker Matt Milano to IR. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out for tonight. Cornerback Taron Johnson is questionable. Coming into this game, the Bills are allowing 21.2 points a game which is 12th in the league. Their strength has been defending the pass where they are ranked 14th by allowing 198 yards a game. They are vulnerable against the run where they are ranked 26th and allowing 144 yards a game. This number was most likely inflated by the Ravens game where Derrick Henry and company ran for 271 yards. Luckily, they face a Jets team that has struggled to consistently run the ball.

On the other side of the field, the Jets are coming back from a loss to the Vikings in London. This loss was apparently the final straw for owner Woody Johnson, who made the decision to fire head coach Robert Saleh. The move was particularly shocking because Salehs expertise was defense, and the Jets have had a very good defense during his tenure. Johson elevated defensive coordinator, Jeff Ulbrich, to the interim head coach status. Ulbrich’s first major decision was to demote offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and give the play calling to Todd Downing. There is a fair amount of uncertainty around the Jets moving forward, yet it may work in their favor this week. The Bills are obviously familiar with the Jets, but they have not prepared for the Ulbrich and Downing led offense of the Jets. In recent history, inter head coaches have been 9-2 against the spread in their first week. With the spread for this game being 1.5, it is essentially a pick ’em. We’ll see if the Jets are able to continue the trend.

Todd Downing takes over an offense that has struggled to live up to expectations across the board. It was thought that Aaron Rodgers was the savior for this unit. It has been lackluster so far and Rodgers himself has confessed that they need to play better. The offense is scoring 18.6 points a game which is 26th in the league. They have yet to have any kind of breakout game. They are averaging 206 pass yards a game which is 19th in the league and are averaging 80 yards on the ground which is dead last. Now they have faced some of the league’s best defenses, but you would expect an Aaron Rodgers led offense to be more efficient. If there was ever a get right game, it would be tonight against a banged-up Bills defense.

As mentioned above, the Jets defense is the strength of this team. They are allowing 17 points a game which is 5th in the league. They don’t allow teams to throw against them. They are allowing 136 pass yards which is 2nd in the league. They allow almost equal yards on the ground which is a pretty impressive stat. They are allowing 119 yards a game on the ground which is 14th in the league. I would expect this squad to continue their dominance and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder for the recently fired Saleh. They will also want to get this win for their defensive coordinator turned head coach.

Best Bet Background

The Jets offense wants to get off to a faster start than they have been under Nathaniel Hackett’s play calling. Going back to his play calling days in Tennessee, Todd Downing made it a point to run the ball and to lean heavily on their number 1 receiver. For Downing, that was AJ Brown in 2021. Under Downing, Brown was targeted 105 times and totaled 869 yards through just 13 games.

Garrett Wilson could and should be one of the main beneficiaries in this new game flow. Breece Hall will most likely benefit as well but given the Jets inability to run so far, we are staying away from Jets running backs. Wilson and Rodgers have struggled early to get on the same page, but they are coming off of a week where Wilson caught 13 balls for 103 yards. They finally made him a focal point in the offense. Look for this to continue tonight.