Week 7 Sunday Matchups

Week 7 started with a dud of a Best Bet. In a tough game to pick bets, my Courtland Sutton prop bet was my biggest miss so far. Based on a lot of reactions on X, I was not alone in my frustration. However, we have a great slate today to go make up for a tough start to the week. A lot of great matchups and even if you do not place bets on the games, it will be an entertaining Sunday. But that’s not what we are here for. I have gone through the slate and picked out a Best Bet from each time window and even threw together a parlay for the day. Let’s bounce back and make some money.

Best Bets

Evan Engram Receiving Yards o46.5
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards o65.5
Brian Robinson Rushing Yards o58.5
Davante Adams Receiving Yards o55.5

Best Bet Background- Evan Engram Receiving Yards o46.5

We have the last London game of the season, and it has the makings of a throwback London NFL game. That is to say, we are not exactly sending our top talent over to the UK and we may need to apologize to the Brits for the game that is about to be played. They have to endure yet another Jaguars game. They got absolutely blown out last week by the Bears. This week, they take on the New England Patriots who are coming off of a blowout loss themselves. The Patriots are starting Drake Maye for the second week in a row. It is still too early to know how the Patriots will perform with Maye under center, so I am looking at the Jaguars players for this bet. The Patriots have let up the 9th most pass yards this year. They are allowing 228.5 yards a game. The Jags will have their best opportunity to move the ball through the air today. Last week, Evan Engram came back from injury, and you could tell that Trevor Lawrence was happy to have him back. Engram was heavily involved as he caught 10 balls on 10 targets and racked up 102 receiving yards. Going back to last year, Engram was one of Lawrences favorite targets. He managed to hit over his line 11 out of 17 games last year. They will need to rely on him once again today.

Best Bet Background- Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards o65.5

The Texans are traveling to Green Bay to take on the Packers in a 1PM matchup that could have been our primetime matchup for today. With the exception of the Vikings-Lions matchup, this is going to be one of the more highly anticipated matchups during this time slot. We get two of the young star quarterbacks in CJ Stroud and Jordan Love facing off against each other. Both have been playing extremely well and their respective offenses are high powered. This has the potential to turn into a shootout. The mismatch that catches my eye in this game is the Houston pass offense, which is 5th in yards per game, going against the Green Bay defense, who is ranked 25th against the pass. The Texans are going to be without their leading receiver, Nico Collins, which opens the door for Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to have big days. Diggs will be the number 1 for the second week in a row. He has been Strouds favorite target through the year. He is averaging 65.3 yards a game and leads the Texans in targets and receptions. Stroud will continue to feed him the ball against a Packers defense that has struggled against the pass. With the exception of the Vikings, they have yet to face a passing attack that is towards the top of the league. Expect Diggs and the Texans to have a lot of yards through the air in this shootout.

Best Bet Background – Brian Robinson Rushing Yards o58.5

The Commanders are coming off of a tough loss to the Ravens last week. Notably absent from that game was Brian Robinson Jr. He is back from injury this week and immediately faces a favorable matchup in the Panthers. Carolina has struggled to do much of anything this year. They benched Bryce Young, started Andy Dalton, and have continued to lose games. The Commanders are going to be able to move the ball in any way that they choose against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Panthers allow the most points per game in the league, the 2nd most rush yards per game, and the 9th most rush yards. Given that the Commanders will most likely be up early and will be looking to run the ball, Brian Robinson Jr is the clear choice for this game. He has only cleared this line twice this year, but he has shown that he has the capability of being the workhorse for this rushing attack. I expect him to be a big part of their offense today as they run away with a win against the hopeless Panthers.

Best Bet Background – Davante Adams Receiving Yards o55.5

Aaron Rodgers has his best friend back on the field. The long-awaited reunion finally happened, and Davante Adams is now a New York Jet. Adams appears to be staying at Aaron Rodgers’ house and have been working towards getting on the same page. Rodgers will need his favorite target against a stingy Steelers defense. The Steelers defense is 2nd in points allowed this year, so points will be at a premium for the Jets, who already struggle to put up points. The “weak” spot for the Steelers defense is their pass defense. They are currently allowing 208 yards per game which is 13th in the league. Normally, that would not inspire much confidence when betting on the opposing wide receivers. However, Adams is a different case. He has consistently faced every teams best shot for years now. The results? He has led the league in receiving yards since leaving the Packers to go to the Raiders. He did not play with any quarterback that is remotely close to the caliber of Aaron Rodgers. Even this year, with Gardner Minshew, Adams has surpassed his line for today in 2 out of the 3 games that he played. I think we can expect to see Rodgers get the ball to Adams and finalize his welcome to New York with a big game on Sunday night.

Parlay (+3276)