In back-to-back months, our Best Bets have hit a buzzsaw on the 3rd Sunday of the month. The Best Bets stand at 1-4 this week and we need a win tonight. Much like a month ago, there is a chance for us to finish the week strong as we have a double header on Monday Night Football. First, we have the Ravens are taking on the Buccaneers. Then in the second game, we have the Chargers and the Cardinals going at it. I have gone through the two games and picked two Best Bets for tonight. Let’s finish the week on a positive note and see if we can salvage a tough week 7. First things first, here are the Best Bets for tonight’s games.

Best Bets

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards o74.5 (-110) FanDuel

Kyler Murray Pass Yards u215.5 (-110) FanDuel

Best Bet Background – Chris Godwin Receiving Yards o74.5

In the first game of the double-header, the 4-2 Ravens are traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the 4-2 Buccaneers. Of the two games tonight, this is the one that most people are going to be excited to watch and able to watch (other game is on ESPN+). Both teams have explosive offenses that can put up a lot of points. This has potential to be a high scoring affair.

The Ravens on offense are averaging 29.5 points per game which is 4th in the league. You would be hard pressed to find an offense that is more balanced than this Baltimore squad. They are able to kill teams on the ground with the combination of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Add in Justice Hill and the blocking of fullback Patrick Ricard, you have the league’s top rushing attack. They are currently averaging 205 yards a game. So, while teams are busy preparing for this rushing attack, they also have to prepare for the passing offense which is explosive in its own right. Lamar has been spreading the ball around to guys like Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrew, Isiah Likely, and Nelson Agholor. This group ranks 8th in the league in pass yards by averaging 248 yards per game. In short, this offense is scary because they are able to move the ball any way that they want, and they do it better than almost everyone else. The Bucs defense will have their hands full tonight.

For possibly the first time in recent memory, the Ravens defense has been a weak spot for the team. They are allowing 24.8 points per game which is 24th in the league. What is even more problematic, is that they have struggled to defend leads and close out games. The strong point of this defense has been their rush defense as they are the best in yards allowed by only allowing 59 rush yards a game. While the offense is able to get a lead, this Ravens pass defense continues to struggle which allows opposing teams to fight their way back into games. The pass defense is allowing 275 yards a game which is 31st in the league. Tampa Bay will be a tough matchup for this defensive unit.

Tampa Bay seems to be suited well to play this defense as they struggle to run but have been able to move the ball through the air. Baker Mayfield has been balling out and has passed for 1489 yards and 15 touchdowns. His favorite target has been Chris Godwin who has 43 receptions for 511 yards and 5 touchdowns. Mike Evans is coming off of a hamstring injury but will certainly continue to cause issues for the Ravens defense. The unit as a whole is second in the league in points scored by putting up 29.7 points a game. They are accomplishing this primarily through the air. Their pass attack is averaging 230 yards a game which is 11th in the league. The rushing game has struggled early on, but they had a huge game against the Saints last week and rushed for 277 yards. this has inflated their rank, but they sit at 8th in the league in rushing yards. They will face a much tougher Ravens rush defense.

On defense, the Bucs are allowing 23.5 points per game which is 19th in the NFL. They have struggled primarily against the pass where they are allowing 252 yards per game, which ranks 28th in the league. The matchup that will probably cause them the most trouble tonight is going to be the run game of the Ravens. The Bucs are allowing 113 yards per game which is 11th in the league but they face their toughest test tonight. Luckily, Vita Vea is back off of injury, but I doubt that they will be able to slow the Ravens offense much tonight.

Based on how these teams play, this game will probably be a passing heavy shootout. Both teams struggle to defend the pass. I believe that the Ravens will ultimately win this game which points to the Bucs having to play some catchup. Considering this and the fact that the Ravens struggle against receivers, I believe that Chris Godwin is going to be heavily involved in the pass game tonight. Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring injury and while he is playing, he may not be going at full speed. Godwin has been Bakers favorite target so far this year. He is averaging 82.5 yards a game and has the ability for the big play. Godwin should be able to rack up at least 75 yards in this favorable matchup.

Best Bet Background – Kyler Murray Pass Yards u215.5

In the second game, the 3-2 Chargers are traveling to Arizona to take on the 2-4 Cardinals. This game kicks off at 9 PM on ESPN+ and has the potential to be the antithesis from the other MNF game. There will not be much scoring in this game, and it does not appear to be a very exciting matchup on paper. It might be the perfect game for true football people who love a defensive game.

Speaking of which, the Chargers have taken on the identity of their head coach Jim Harbaugh. They are built to run the ball and play tough defense. On offense, they average 18.2 points a game, ranking 26th in the league. Normally, this low output would not win many games for other teams. However, other teams do not have Harbaugh. The Chargers are a run heavy offense. They rank 10th in rush yards by averaging 127 yards per game. They essentially took the Ravens offense and brought it to the west coast. Former Ravens offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, relies on two former Ravens running backs, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, to make this offense go. Then, they will pass as they need to. This is reflected in the numbers as they rank 29th in the NFL in pass yards by averaging 153 yards per game. This can also be explained by the fact that they do not have many offensive weapons and QB Justin Herbert has been dealing with injuries. There is not much to suggest that they change their ways tonight against a bad Cardinals defense. The Chargers will utilize the run game and short passes to control the clock and work to squeak out a low scoring game.

That method is made possible by a solid defense. The Chargers are only allowing 13.2 points per game which is the lowest in the league. A defense that averages less than two touchdowns allowed will let your offense do just enough to win games. Teams have not only struggled to score against this Chargers team, but they have struggled to move the ball at all. Los Angeles ranks 8th in pass yards allowed by averaging 192 yards a game and 6th in rush allowed by allowing 97 yards a game. They face a struggling Cardinals offense which would point towards a Chargers advantage.

The Cardinals offense has yet to find their rhythm. Led by QB Kyler Murray, this team should be capable of explosive plays and putting up points, yet they are struggling with both. They are averaging 22.2 points per game which is 22nd in the NFL. Despite the emergence of tight end Trey McBride and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr, the pass offense is struggling. They are averaging 187 pass yards a game which is 24th in the league. They have looked straight up bad at times as Murray struggles to get on the same page as his receivers. The bright spot has been their run game as they are averaging 145 rush yards which is 7th in the league. Running back James Connor continues to have an impact on this offense as the lead rusher, yet they face a stingy Charger rush defense. Given the style of games that the Chargers play, the Cardinals will most likely need to rely on their run game to grind this one out.

Arizona’s defense will be tasked with keeping their team in the game. The Chargers do not score a ton of points but the Cardinals have struggled to keep teams off of the scoreboard. By allowing 27.2 points a game, they rank 27th. Teams have been able to move the ball on this team fairly easily. Through the air, they are 22nd in the league by allowing 220 yards per game. On the ground, they are 29th by allowing 153 yards per game. This is concerning as the Chargers are built to only run the ball. It is not a great matchup for this Cardinals defense, but they will need to step up in order to get off of the field and keep the ball in the hands of their offense.

Kyler Murray has only passed for over 215 yards once this season. That was against a Rams team that struggles to defend against the pass. The Chargers as a team love to run the ball, rely on short passes, and control the time of possession. They have a solid pass defense so they will cause Kyler to have issues throughout the night. I expect the Chargers to limit what the Cardinals are able to do on offense and by extension, keep Kyler from throwing the ball around the yard. For these reasons, I think that his line of 215.5 is too high and will be taking the under for Kyler’s passing yards.