Tough Sunday for the Best Bets. They went 1-3 and overall, they are sitting at 2-3 for the week. We have a MNF primetime matchup between the Bucs and Chiefs that gives us the opportunity to make up some lost ground and get to 50% for the week. The matchup preview is below but first things first, the Best Bet.

Best Bet

Kareem Hunt Rush Attempts o17.5(-110) FanDuel

Buccaneers @ Chiefs

The 4-4 Bucs travel to Arrowhead to take on the 7-0 Chiefs. The Bucs come into this game limping. They lost their top two wide receivers in one game when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down. They will not be playing tonight. As an almost direct result, the Bucs have gone on a 2-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Chiefs continue to win games despite them not playing their best ball. They lost their top two wide receivers as well, but they have found a way to keep on rolling. It will be an interesting matchup to see if the Bucs can keep up with the champs. There is potentially some rain being forecasted for the game so that could factor into the gameplay tonight.

Even with the injuries the Bucs offense has been very productive this year. They are averaging 29.4 points per game which is 4th in the NFL. They have been primarily moving the ball through the air with the 2nd most pass yards gained in the NFL. They are averaging 258 yards per game through the air. It will be interesting to see how they manage tonight without Baker Mayfield’s top two targets as they take on a tough Kansas City defense. To make matters worse, the next man up in the receiver room, Jalen McMillan, is dealing with a hamstring injury that has him questionable. The logical option would be to turn to the run game tonight in order to move the ball up the field. They are averaging 131 rush yards per game which is 10th in the league. They have three viable running threats coming out of the backfield and Baker has been making plenty of runs this year. They also like to use the backs in the pass game. Other lines that caught my eye for this Bucs offense was Cade Ottons receiving yards (o53.5), Rachaad White receiving yards (o25.5) and Bucky Irving’s receiving yards (15.5 yards).

The Bucs defense has been struggling this year. This is atypical for a Todd Bowles defense. They are allowing 26.6 points per game which is 28th in the league. Teams have been able to move the ball fairly easily against this squad. The Bucs rank 29th in pass yards allowed, allowing 255 yards per game. They rank 20th against the run, allowing 131 yards per game. The Chiefs offense certainly has the more favorable matchup. I expect the Chiefs will meet little resistance as they move the ball tonight.

The KC offense takes a balanced approach to moving the ball. They are not ranked as high as you would expect in either the pass or rush, but they rank 9th in points per game. Averaging 24.7 points per game will put you in position to win a lot of games. On the ground, they have been using a combination of Kareem Hunt and Carson Steele to run the rock. They average 122 rush yards per game which is 12th in the league. It appears that Andy Reid has gotten over his hatred of the running the ball in exchange for winning more games. Through the air, they are averaging 225 yards per game which is 13th in the league. They have added Deandre Hopkins as a target for Mahomes. Last week he only caught 2 balls for 29 yards. I would imagine that he plays a bigger role in tonight’s game. Travis Kelce is always a threat to go off. However, with the potential for rainy weather, I believe that the Chiefs will lean more heavily on their run game than the pass.

The KC defense is the perfect complement for a gameplan that focuses on the run. They get after the quarterback and stop the run. They are 2nd in the league in rush yards allowed, allowing 82 yards per game. If they are able to shut down the Bucs rush attack, they will be forcing Baker Mayfield to throw more. This will allow defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, to call for blitzes to get after the quarterback. Forcing them to pass when they are thin at receiver, plays right into the gameplan. The Chiefs are 17th against the pass, allowing 212 yards per game. They are also effective at keeping their opponents off of the scoreboard and are only allowing 17.6 points per game, which is 5th in the league. I expect the Chiefs defense to dominate this matchup.

Best Bet Background – Kareem Hunt Rush Attempts o17.5

Kareem Hunt was signed back to the Chiefs this year and has played 4 games. In the past 3 games, he has gotten 27, 22, and 21 carries. Tonight’s game points to yet another heavy workload for Hunt. Given the potential for rainy weather and the fact that the Chiefs will most likely be leading for a majority of this game, I see Andy Reid calling for plenty of runs in order to control the clock.