I hope that everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. As we turn the page to gift giving season, the NFL has given us a gift by having a special Black Friday game between the Chiefs and the Raiders at 3 PM on Amazon Prime. Yesterday, our Best Bets went 2-1 with us only missing the primetime bet. I have gone through the available bets for today’s game and picked the one that I believe will hit. I have also laid out some background on today’s matchup. First things first, the Best Bets!

Best Bet

Travis Kelce Rec Yds o55.5 (-110) Fanduel

Raiders @ Chiefs

These division rivals have plenty of history but over the last 5 matchups, the Chiefs are 4-1, with the last game being a 27-20 Chiefs victory earlier this year. There has been some fuel added to this fire after the Raiders mocked Patrick Mahomes with a viral Kermit video. It will be interesting to see how these teams go against each other in this second matchup this year.

The Raiders offense, which has already not been great, will be without their starting quarterback. Aiden O’Connell will be replacing Gardner Minshew, who is now out for the season with a broken collarbone. As I mentioned, the Raiders offense has been struggling. They are averaging 18.7 points per game, which is 26th in the league. They are dead last in running the ball, averaging 74 yards per game. They are better when passing as they are averaging 218 yards per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been trailing in a lot of these games so that would be a reason for the disparity between their pass and rush offense.

The Raiders defense has also been struggling. They allow 28.5 points per game, which is 29th per game. Despite them allowing a lot of points, they are actually middle of the road in terms of yards allowed. They are 12th in pass yards allowed, allowing 208 yards per game. They are also 14th against the run, allowing 119 rush yards per game. They will be facing a balanced Kansas City offense so they will need to prepare for all possibilities from their division rival.

On offense, the Chiefs are scoring 24.5 points per game, which is 10th in the league. They are not blowing teams out but they are just finding ways to win games. In a departure from a typical Andy Reid offense, they are relying more heavily on the run. They are averaging 116 yards per game, which is 18th in the league. They will also be getting their starting running back, Isiah Pacheco, back this week. Pairing Pacheco with Kareem Hunt will give the Chiefs a very balanced 1-2 punch when running the ball. This also has the potential to open up their pass game, which is currently averaging 226 yards per game. That ranks them 12th in the NFL. The Chiefs will have to figure out how to move the ball on a stingy Raiders defense.

The Chiefs defense has been one of the main reasons that they are winning games this season. They are 9th in points allowed, allowing 19.8 points per game. They are stout against the tun. They are 3rd in the league, allowing 85 yards per game. Given that the Raiders do not run the ball well, this stat has the potential to move them up the rankings. Against the pass, the Chiefs are 18th, allowing 215 yards per game. This matchup should be the one that gets teated as the Raiders will most likely need to pass the ball in order to move it at all against the Chiefs.

Best Bet Background-Travis Kelce Rec Yds o55.5

Travis Kelce has been Patrick Mahomes favorite target. Las time they faced off agains the Raiders, Kelce caught 10 passes on 12 targets for 90 yards and 1 TD. He has a ton of success going against the Raiders in this divisional matchup. He is currently averaging 51 yards per game, however, he had an uncharacteristic slow start to the season. He shows up in the big time games when Mahomes needs him the most. A divisional game on Black Friday is the type of game that he shows up in. I expect Travis to have a big day.