NFL Week 14: Thursday Analysis and Best Bet

Week 14 is here and so is our Best Bet and matchup analysis. Last week, we went had a rough outing with our Best Bets. We are on a 5-bet losing slide. Tonight, turn it around. We have the Cowboys and the Lions facing off against one another.. I have gone through the available bets for tonight and picked the one that I think should be a lock. Let’s make some money!

Best Bet

Jameson Williams Receiving Yards over 81.5

Cowboys @ Lions

Match-up Overview and History

The 6-5-1 Cowboys are traveling to Detroit to take on the 7-5 Lions. These teams are both in the hunt for a playoff spot and desperately need a win tonight to stay in the race. These teams have played each other 32 times, and the Cowboys hold a lead in the all-time series 19-13. The most recent game was on October 13, 2024, which was a 47-9 Detroit win.

The Lions are 3.5 point favorites tonight. The points total is set at 54.5. The public trends are favoring the Cowboys. Despite 43% of the bets being placed on Dallas, 65% of the money is being placed on them to win. This means that the heavy betters are anticipating a Dallas victory. The percentages on the spread support this as well. 76% of the bets and 79% of the money is being placed on Dallas +3.5. For the points, 59% of the bets and 68% of the money is being placed on the over.

Game Odds

Cowboys Offense

Dallas enters this game with one of the best offenses in the league. They are the 2nd highest scoring team, averaging 29.3 points per game. The combination of Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb have the Dallas passing game leading the NFL. They are averaging 271 yards per game. They have a favorable matchup tonight against an injured Detroit secondary. The run game has played their part as well, as they are averaging 121 yards per game, which is 13th in the NFL. The issue for this offense has been turnovers. This team is -5 in turnover differential, which is 26th in the league. If they take care of the ball, they should be able to continue their dominant run.

Cowboys Defense

Looking at the rankings for this Dallas defense, you would not expect them to match up well against the Lions tonight. They are 31st in points allowed, allowing 28.5 points per game. They are the 30th ranked pass defense, allowing 251 yards per game, and the 20th ranked run defense, allowing 124 yards per game. However, they have bene playing much better since the acquisitions of Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams. The Lions are missing some key players on offense as well, so this matchup may end up favoring Dallas tonight.

Lions Offense

The once high flying offense of the Lions are down two key pieces. They are without tight end Sam LaPorta and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown tonight. That means that Jameson Williams and the running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will be the keys to success. On the season, the Lions are averaging 29.2 points per game, which is 3rd in the NFL. They are averaging 238 pass yards per game, which is 7th. Their ground game is averaging 138 yards per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL.

Lions Defense

The injury bug is hitting the defense as well. Particularly the secondary. Overall, they are allowing 22.8 points per game, which is 15th in the league. They are allowing 212 pass yards per game, which is 17th in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 103 yards per game, which is 11th in the league. They have a tough matchup against this Dallas offense and it will be up to the guys on the field to make some plays to slow down the explosive players of Dallas.

Best Bet Background – Jameson Williams Receiving Yards over 81.5

Tonight’s game could turn into a shootout. The Dallas defense has been improving over the last few weeks but they still let up a ton of yards through the air. Quarterbacks have been having big days against this defense all year. Tonight, Jared Goff should be able to get the ball to his speedster, Jameson Williams, plenty of times. With Amon-Ra St. Brown being banged up, Williams becomes the number 1 receiver in this offense. He has the ability to break a long run after catch and should be heavily involved. Last week, he had 7 receptions for 144 yards when St. Brown exited the game early. I would expect a similar performance against a much softer Dallas defense tonight.