Bills at Rams
Our Best Bets went 5-0 yesterday and are at 5-1 for the week. Tonight, we need to get a win. We have the Bills and Rams playing on Monday Night Football to end Week 5. I have gone through the available bets and picked the one that I believe will hit. Let’s make some money!
Best Bet: Matthew Stafford Pass Yards over 283.5
Game Odds
The Public Numbers
The Rams come into this game as 3.5-point home favorites. The public is pretty evenly split on who is going to win this game. 51 % of the bets and 76% of the money are being placed on the Bills to win outright. Keeping in line with that trend, 78% of the bets and money are being placed on Buffalo +3.5. The total is set at 54.5 points with 81% of the bets and 85% of the money being placed on the over.
So far this year, the Rams are 2-2 against the spread while the Bills are 3-1.
Match-up Overview
These teams have faced each other 15 times and the Bills hold the lead in the all-time series 9-6. The Rams won the last matchup 44-42 on December 8th, 2024. In the last 5 matchups, the Bills have won 3/5 games.
The Bills are 3-1 and are coming off their first loss of the year. They lost to the New England Patriots 29-26. Now they fly across the country to try and get back on track. They bring with them the top scoring offense in the league, averaging 31.8 points per game. It is of course led by former MVP Josh Allen who has thrown for 1039 yards and 6 TDs so far this year. He is always a threat to run of course and has been a touchdown machine with his legs in the first four weeks. He has scored 7 touchdowns so far. So far, he has leaned on tight end, Dalton Kincaid, as his primary target in the pass game. Kincaid has 270 yards and 1 TD so far. He also leans heavily on Khalil Shakir on “gotta have it” downs. The other targets in this game would be DJ Moore (if he plays) and Dawson Knox. Altogether, the Bills pass game is averaging 247 yards per game, which is 12th in the league. The run game is anchored by James Cook who has 421 yards and 3 TDs. Between him and Josh Allen, this run game is averaging 139 yards per game, which is 5th in the league. They face a tough Rams defense that is getting healthy tonight, so it should be an interesting matchup.
The Bills defense has been suspect at best this year. They are allowing 26.8 points per game, which is 25th in the league. They are struggling in particular against the pass. They are allowing 256 yards per game, which is 27th in the league. It will be a tough matchup against the Rams who boast the leagues second best pass game in the league. Against the run, they are not much better. They are allowing 116 yards per game, which is 19th in the NFL. If the Bills want to win, their defense will need to find a way to stop the Rams and allow Josh Allen to outscore Matt Stafford.
The Rams are 2-2 on the year and are coming off of a great comeback win against the Eagles last week. This week, they will have a healthier offense with the return of Puka Nacua (to full strength). The Rams have been scoring 21.3 points per game, which is 19th in the league. Behind thier former MVP QB, Matthew Stafford, they have the second best passing offense in the NFL. They are averaging 290 yards per game and that has been primarily without Puka Nacua playing meaningful time. Stafford has relied on Davante Adams in the absence of Nacua, totaling 290 yards and 2 TDs. Stafford currently has 1189 yards and 6 TDs. He will have a very favorable matchup against a soft Bills defense. On the ground, the Rams are averaging 126 yards per game, which is 7th in the league. They have a two headed monster with the combination of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Williams has run for 294 yards and 3 TDs and has been a serious threat in the pass game as well. He has 21 receptions for 173 yards and 1 TD as well.
The Rams on defense has been allowing 20.8 points per game, which is 9th in the league. They are allowing just 145 pass yards per game, which is second in the league. They made some serious investments in the secondary in the offseason and it looks like they are getting a solid return on investment. The major piece that they are still missing is Myles Garrett, who is still out with a banged up knee. The addition of Aaron Donald has been up and down so far but he will be back in the lineup tonight to help the defensive front. They are already pretty good against the run, allowing just 102 yards per game, which is 11th in the league. They will have their hands full with Josh Allen and the Bills but they should be up fr the task.
Injuries
Bills
- Landon Jackson (DE) – Questionable
- Dee Alford (CB) – Questionable
- Ed Oliver (DT) – Out
- DJ Moore (WR) – Questionable
- Joshua Palmer (WR) – Out
Rams
- Quentin Lake (S) – Questionable
- Myles Garrett (DE) – Out/IR
- Terrance Ferguson (TE) – Out/IR
- Keir Thomas (LB) – Out/IR
Best Bet Background – Matthew Stafford Pass Yards over 283.5
Stafford has been averaging 297 yards per game so far this year and has gone for over 300 yards in 3 straight games. Tonight, he faces a weak Buffalo pass defense in a game that is potentially going to be a shootout. The recipe is there for Stafford to gain over 284 yards through the air. I would also add in the fact that he now has Puka Nacua at full health back in the lineup, which makes this offense even more dangerous. The only concern is if the Bills either don’t show up at all and the Rams end up running the ball or if the Bills finally figure out how to defend the pass. I am banking on the shootout and I think Stafford will get over 300 yards tonight.
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