Patriots at Bears

Week 7 kicks of tonight in Chicago with the Bears hosting the Patriots. This game is hard to read but it should be a great matchup between two teams that are very solid across the board. I have picked what I believe to be the Best Bet for the matchup. Let’s win some money!

Best Bet: Hunter Henry Receiving Yards over 36.5

Odds

The Public Numbers

The Bears are 3-point favorites tonight at home. The public is pretty split on this game. 59% of the bets are being placed on the Bears to win while 52% of the money is on the Bears. 67% of the bets and money are on the Patriots to cover 3 points. The total is set at 51.5 points. 58% of the bets are on the under but 53% of the money is on the over. The Patriots are 3-3 against the spread this year while Chicago is 2-4.

Match-up Overview

these teams have played each other 16 times. The most recent game was on November 10th, 2024, and was a 19-3 New England victory. In the last 5 games, the Patriots are 4-1. In the all-time series, New England holds the lead at 11-5.

The Patriots come into this game 4-2 and are seemingly trending in the right direction after a rough start. Their offense was under performing due to some inconsistent play by QB Drake Maye. However, Maye seems to have figured it out and is performing at a high level. Over the last 3 games, the is averaging 292 yards and 3 TDs. He is also averaging 34 yards rushing. The biggest improvement has been his lack of turnovers. Through the first 3 games, he had 6 interceptions. Through the last 3, he only has 1. Last week he got his WR1 in AJ Brown back. There was some rust, but Brown is poised to step up big moving forward, especially with their leading receiver, Romeo Doubs, going on injured reserve. This pass game as a whole is averaging 243 yards per game, which is 10th in the league. The run game is supported by Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Them plus the legs of Maye has this rush offense averaging 130 yards per game, which is 6th in the league. They will face a Chicago defense that has been pretty solid against the run and the pass, so it will be interesting to see how OC Josh McDaniels calls this game. A cause for concern for this Pats offense is the health of their offensive line. They will be without their starting left guard, right guard, and center. Their starting right tackle, Morgan Moses, is also questionable for tonight.

The Patriots defense has been allowing just 18.8 points per game, which is 5th in the league. They are stout against the run and have been able to defend the pass very effectively. They are allowing just 91 rush yards per game, which is 9th in the league. This is an interesting matchup against a Bears offense that is built around being able to run the ball. Against the pass, they are allowing 209 yards per game, which is 11th in the league. They got a huge boost with the return of Christian Gonzalez, who is one of the best corners in the league.

The Bears are also 4-2 this year and are coming off of a win over the Falcons. It was the return of QB Caleb Williams, who missed several games due to a hamstring injury. In his return to the starting lineup, Williams threw for 305 yards and 1 TD. Notably, he did not use his legs to gain yards as he had 4 rush attempts for only 3 yards. He will continue to lean on targets like Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland. Burden is currently the leading receiver for the team with 361 yards and 1 TD. However, all of these guys are dangerous in this Ben Johnson offense. Overall, this pass game is averaging 227 yards per game, which is 15th in the league. The pass game is built on the run, which is built on the back of D’Andre Swift, who has 361 rush yards and 1 TD. He will get the bulk of the carries tonight with Kyle Monongai missing in action due to injury. The run game is currently the top rushing attack in the NFL averaging 160 yards per game.

The Chicago defense has been outperforming expectations. They are allowing 19.8 points per game, which is 6th in the league. Despite being thin in the secondary, they are ranked 14th in pass yards allowed, allowing 211-yards per game. Against the run, they are allowing 90 yards per game, which is 8th in the league. They have a good matchup against a Pats team that has been firing on all cylinders recently.

Injuries

Patriots

• Mack Hollins (WR) – IR
• Romeo Doubs (WR) – IR
• Reggie Gillam (FB) – IR
• Alijah Ver-Tucker (G) – IR
• Ben Brown (G) – Out
• Mike Onwenu (G) – IR
• Morgan Moses (RT) – Questionable
• Christian Elliss (LB) – Questionable
• Carlton Davis (CB) – Out
• Craig Woodson (S) – Questionable
• Kevin Byard (S) – Questionable

Bears

• Kyle Monangai (RB) – Out
• Braxton Jones (LT) – Out
• Montez Sweat (DE) – Suspended
• T.J Edwards (MLB) – Doubtful
• Tyrique Stevenson (CB) – Questionable

Best Bet Background: Hunter Henry Receiving Yards over 36.5

Tonight’s game will be one where yards and points might be tough to come by. Or it might be a shootout. Either way, the Patriots will have to continue to lean on the arm of Drake Maye to move the ball against this Chicago defense. The “weakness” of this defense has been their pass defense, allowing 211 yards per game. Hunter Henry has been a consistent target for Drake Maye over the years and should be a part of the game plan tonight. The injuries to Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs means that other pass catchers will need to step up. AJ Brown is still working to find his footing so I think Henry might be in for some heavy usage tonight. Henry is averaging 37.5 yards per game and has gone over this line in 4/6 games this year. He should make it 5/7 tonight.